Win, draw or lose: Inter Miami could reach Club World Cup knockout stage. Let us explain.
Lionel Messi and Inter Miami made history in their FIFA Club World Cup victory against Portuguese side FC Porto on Thursday in Atlanta, becoming the first North American team to beat a European club in a FIFA tournament.
It's a historic achievement for Inter Miami, a club in its fifth year since beginning play in 2020. And a landmark achievement for Major League Soccer, celebrating its 30th season in 2025.
It could also be a precursor to more history for Messi and Inter Miami.
Group A of the Club World Cup will conclude Monday night at 9 p.m. ET: Inter Miami faces Brazilian side Palmeiras at Miami's Hard Rock Stadium, while Porto will meet Egyptian club Al Ahly at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ.
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Win, draw or lose: Inter Miami has a chance to advance to the knockout round in the FIFA Club World Cup after the final group-stage match. There are just some further implications if Inter Miami loses.
Let us explain.
Inter Miami would play in the Club World Cup round-of-16 in the following scenarios:
Inter Miami would win Group A with 7 points. Being a group winner in this Club World Cup would be another remarkable achievement.
Both clubs would advance to the knockout stage. They would both have five points in the group standings, clearing the other clubs.
In this scenario: Palmeiras would clinch the group, while Inter Miami would be group runner-up based on goal differential. Both clubs have scored two goals during the tournament but Inter Miami has surrendered one goal, while Palmeiras hasn't surrendered any.
Inter Miami would advance because they beat Porto head-to-head last Thursday in Atlanta.
If Palmeiras and Al Ahly win with 1-0 scores, Inter Miami advances with a higher goal difference than Al Ahly (0 vs. -1).
If Palmeiras wins 2-0 and Al-Ahly wins 1-0, Inter Miami and Al-Ahly would be tied with -1 goal difference. The next tiebreaker is total goals scored — Inter Miami would finish with two goals and advance since Al Ahly would finish with just one goal.
Here are the worst-case scenarios for Inter Miami
Essentially, Inter Miami can't afford to lose in a scoreless effort while Al Ahly scores two or more goals in a win.
If Inter Miami loses and fails to score a goal against Palmeiras, a 2-0 win by Al Ahly would eliminate them. Al Ahly would break even on goal difference, while Inter Miami would be -1 in this scenario.
If Inter Miami and Al Ahly are tied on goal difference, the next tiebreakers are: overall number of goals scored and fair play ranking, or number of yellow and red cards. Inter Miami and Al Ahly enter their final group stage matches with four yellow cards each.
All this to say: Inter Miami has a prime opportunity to advance into the next round of the Club World Cup win, draw or lose – if Al Ahly doesn't go crazy with an onslaught of goals in a victory.
When would Inter Miami play in the Club World Cup knockout stage?
Here the scenarios for Inter Miami's potential round-of-16 match in the Club World Cup:
Which club would Inter Miami face in the Club World Cup knockout stage?
Group B will also be decided Monday, with all four clubs in action at 3 p.m. ET.
Brazilian side Botafogo stunned Champions League winner Paris Saint-Germain 1-0 Thursday and will meet Atlético Madrid at the Rose Bowl. PSG will meet the Seattle Sounders at Lumen Field in the other matchup.
Botafogo leads Group B with six points. PSG and Atlético each have three points, but PSG beat Atlético 4-0 to open the group stage. Seattle has zero points after losing to Botafogo and Atlético.
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