Does Trump see an off-ramp for Iran's leaders and a historic tipping point?
President Trump has come to possibly one of the most historic tipping points of our time — a tipping point he may have accelerated. A tipping point which, if things continue in this direction, might recalibrate the Middle East for the better for decades to come. The question then becomes: How best to increase the positive momentum?
One of the main reasons I believe Trump has been a successful and transformative president is because he brought decades of real-world business experience into the Oval Office for the first time in decades. Love them or not, Joe Biden was a 50-plus-years career politician; Barack Obama was a little-experienced local Chicago politician; George W. Bush was a 'nepo' politician who rode the coattails of his father; Bill Clinton was an academic and career politician; George H.W. Bush was a courageous war hero who then fell into a career of politics and diplomacy; Ronald Reagan was an actor and two-term governor of California; and so on and so on.
All these presidents were still creatures of politics and beholden to their particular party. Aside from being the first president in our lifetimes to bring decades of real-world business experience into the White House, Trump gleefully and very publicly cut the special interests' umbilical cords which connected so many presidents to the entrenched elites in D.C. Hence the creation of the 'Never Trump' movement and now a decade of 'Trump Derangement Syndrome.'
Trump does believe in 'America First.' To make that expression a reality, he is willing to break with the entrenched elites, outrage the legacy media, ignore academics who never worked in the real world, defy the 'globalist' leaders of other nations and, sometimes, challenge the thinking and perceptions of the MAGA movement. We are witnessing all those Trump tactics with regard to the latest Israel-Iran conflict.
In the business world, you are often faced with 'buy,' 'sell' or 'sit this one out' opportunities. While building his global business empire, Trump has engaged in such negotiations thousands of times. More often than not, he acted upon instincts honed by decades of success.
Many MAGA supporters — and quite possibly Trump himself — initially viewed the current Israel-Iran war as a 'sit this one out' situation. But Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear weapons facilities may have created an unplanned tipping point for Trump towards much greater peace and stability in the region, while strengthening the national security of the U.S.
Going back to before to his first presidential campaign in 2015, Trump had long condemned the Iraq war, the tragic loss of life and the neocons and hawks who incessantly called for that invasion. We saw that same conviction from Trump when it came to the war in Ukraine. He wanted peace and was desperate to stop the useless slaughter of hundreds of thousands of human beings.
During his decades of being a master business negotiator, Trump also knew that it was wise — and was often the key tactic — to offer the CEO and upper management of the company he was dealing with a face-saving off ramp. Trump may now sense that the leadership of Iran is desperate for such an off ramp.
There is no doubt that Trump believes Iran to be a rogue state directly responsible for the killing and maiming of thousands of American soldiers; of controlling the most ruthless and dangerous terrorist organizations in the world; of openly calling for the annihilation of America; and which is directly destabilizing the Middle East, while causing the deaths and suffering of literally millions of people in the region.
But that is the truth of the present and the past. What if one were presented with the rarest of opportunities — to affect the truth of the future? What if, via the actions of others, certain policies and happenstance, you were gifted a window to rid the world of a truly evil entity capable of killing millions? But it was a window quickly and maybe permanently slamming shut.
No president in our lifetimes has pushed to keep Americans out of harm's way or for global peace more than Trump. He owes no one an apology nor an explanation.
Trump does want peace — but knows peace and freedom come at a cost. In his first term, he saw the window to eliminate ISIS and jumped through it to crush the vilest terrorist organization the world has ever known. With regard to Iran, Trump ordered the elimination of Gen. Qassem Soleimani, a man directly responsible for the killing and maiming of countless American troops.
Businessman Trump has operated with the 'carrot and stick' method his entire adult life. Usually while flying by the seat of his pants.
Trump created the 'America First' movement. Now, his instincts may be telling him he has a fleeting sliver of time to create an 'Iran First' movement for the long-suffering people of that nation — a people yearning to live in peace, who hate those who have turned their nation into a murderous theocracy. Iranians are poised to act, but they need a tipping point to give them cover not to be slaughtered in the streets if they rise as one to reclaim their country.
Trump may be about to give them that tipping point.
Douglas MacKinnon is a former White House and Pentagon official.
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