How Will Estée Lauder Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
A general view of the Estee Lauder retail store front in Shanghai, China, on April 11, 2025, as ... More China raises tariffs on US goods to 125 percent (Photo by Ying Tang/NurPhoto via Getty Images).
Estée Lauder (NYSE:EL) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, May 1, 2025. Event-driven traders may find historical patterns useful for developing prospective trading strategies. Estée Lauder's stock has shown negative one-day returns following earnings announcements in 70% of cases over the previous five years. The median negative one-day return during these announcements was -7.3%, with the largest single-day decline reaching -20.9%.
Traders can potentially take advantage of these historical trends in two ways: first, by grasping the historical probability of negative returns and positioning themselves prior to the earnings announcement. Secondly, they can evaluate the relationship between immediate post-earnings returns and medium-term performance to guide trading decisions after the announcement.
The forthcoming earnings report for Estée Lauder is expected to indicate a drop compared to the same quarter from the previous year. Consensus estimates forecast earnings per share of $0.31 on sales of $3.51 billion, a decrease from $0.97 per share on sales of $3.94 billion during the same quarter last year. This expected decrease is primarily due to diminished demand in mainland China and difficulties within its global travel retail sector, both of which are likely to adversely affect Estée Lauder's Q3 performance.
From a fundamental viewpoint, Estée Lauder currently has a market capitalization of $21 billion. Over the past twelve months, it generated $15 billion in revenue and $1.5 billion in operating profit. However, its net income for the same timeframe was $-700 million.
In conclusion, while the actual market response to Estée Lauder's earnings will depend on how the results align with expectations, comprehending both the historical stock behavior post-earnings and the current fundamental challenges may provide important context for event-driven trading strategies.
If you are looking for an investment with less volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio offers an alternative – having surpassed the S&P 500 and achieved returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Here are some insights regarding one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
Additional information regarding the observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns after earnings is compiled along with the statistics in the table below.
EL 1D, 5D, and 21D Post-Earnings Return
A strategy that is relatively less risky (though it may not be effective if the correlation is weak) is to examine the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns following earnings, identify a pair with the highest correlation, and carry out the appropriate trade. For instance, if 1D and 5D exhibit the strongest correlation, a trader could position themselves 'long' for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Below, we present some correlation data based on both the 5-year and more recent 3-year history. Keep in mind that 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and the following 5D returns.
EL Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
Occasionally, the performance of peers can influence post-earnings stock reactions. In fact, the pricing might start before the earnings are disclosed. Below is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Estée Lauder stock in comparison to the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Estée Lauder. For an accurate comparison, peers' stock returns also reflect post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
EL Correlation With Peer Earnings
Discover more about the Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (a combination of all three: the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), providing robust returns for investors. Additionally, if you prefer upside with a steadier approach than an individual stock like Estée Lauder, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has consistently outperformed the S&P, achieving >91% returns since its launch.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
19 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Why Advanced Micro Devices Stock Moved Higher Today
AMD stock jumped early in today's trading, but it gave up most of its gains as the market focused on risk factors for the tech sector and broader market. Investors are seeing signs that AMD is positioned to rack up wins in the artificial intelligence (AI) processor space. AMD's new AI processor and server products could deliver significant wins, but geopolitical dynamics and other factors could still create volatility for the stock. 10 stocks we like better than Advanced Micro Devices › Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) stock ended Friday's trading in the green, despite pullbacks following a pop early in the session. The company's share price closed out the day up 1.1%, but it had been up as much as 4.7% earlier in the session. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) fell 0.2% in the daily session, and the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) fell 0.5%. Thanks to rising excitement surrounding the company's position in artificial intelligence (AI), AMD stock opened today's trading with a big gain. The company's share price still advanced in the daily session, but it lost some ground as investors weighed new export restrictions for semiconductor technologies and the risk of escalating conflict in the Middle East. AMD stock has seen wild fluctuations over the last couple of years in conjunction with shifting expectations for the company's standing and market opportunity in the AI space. Following the Advancing AI 2025 conference hosted by the hardware specialist last week, market sentiment surrounding the stock has become significantly more bullish. At the conference AMD profiled its recently launched Instinct MI350 graphics processing unit (GPU) and its new server product for data centers. The company also announced that it had entered into a new deal to supply OpenAI with processing hardware, and its indications suggest that it may have also reached a new deal with Amazon. AMD appears to be making some laudable progress in the AI hardware market. While the company may continue to play second fiddle to Nvidia in the high-end data center GPU market, it will likely still have opportunities to score some big wins in the space. On the other hand, AMD stock could see high levels of volatility in the near term. Tech stocks wavered today following news that the Trump administration was implementing new bans on tech exports to China, and the market is also on edge about the possibility that the U.S. could get involved in the conflict between Israel and Iran. So even though AMD's AI growth bets appear to be moving in the right direction, there are other big catalysts that could shape stock performance in the near term. Before you buy stock in Advanced Micro Devices, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Advanced Micro Devices wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $659,171!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $891,722!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 995% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 172% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join . See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of June 9, 2025 John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Keith Noonan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Amazon, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Why Advanced Micro Devices Stock Moved Higher Today was originally published by The Motley Fool Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Business Wire
an hour ago
- Business Wire
EMEREN GROUP INVESTOR ALERT by the Former Attorney General of Louisiana: Kahn Swick & Foti, LLC Investigates Adequacy of Price and Process in Proposed Sale of Emeren Group Ltd.
NEW YORK & NEW ORLEANS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Former Attorney General of Louisiana Charles C. Foti, Jr., Esq. and the law firm of Kahn Swick & Foti, LLC ('KSF') are investigating the proposed sale of Emeren Group Ltd. (NYSE: SOL) to Shurya Vitra Ltd. Under the terms of the proposed transaction, shareholders of Emeren Group will receive $0.20 in cash per ordinary share or $2.00 in cash per American Depositary Share. KSF is seeking to determine whether this consideration and the process that led to it are adequate, or whether the consideration undervalues the Company. If you believe that this transaction undervalues the Company and/or if you would like to discuss your legal rights regarding the proposed sale, you may, without obligation or cost to you, e-mail or call KSF Managing Partner Lewis S. Kahn ( toll free at any time at 855-768-1857, or visit to learn more. To learn more about KSF, whose partners include the Former Louisiana Attorney General, visit
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
Why Digital Turbine Stock Plummeted Today
Digital Turbine stock saw a massive post-earnings rally on Tuesday, but its share price slipped as the week progressed. Investors took profits on the stock today, and geopolitical risk factors also worked to push its share price lower. Digital Turbine is guiding for strong adjusted EBITDA growth this year, but geopolitical dynamics could create valuation volatility. 10 stocks we like better than Digital Turbine › Digital Turbine (NASDAQ: APPS) stock saw a round of substantial sell-offs Friday. The adtech specialist's share price closed out the daily session down 14.6% amid a 0.3% decline for the S&P 500 index and a 0.6% decline for the Nasdaq Composite index. Following an explosive post-earnings rally for the stock earlier this week, investors sold shares and moved to take profits. In addition to profit-taking action, Digital Turbine stock moved lower due to new restrictions on technology exports and fears that the conflict between Israel and Iran could continue to escalate. Digital Turbine stock had actually been up as much as 1.8% in today's trading, but action on the stock turned bearish as investors reacted to risk factors and took profits on gains posted earlier in the week. The company's share price skyrocketed in Tuesday's trading after it posted better-than-expected quarterly results and forward guidance, but its share price has moved lower in subsequent trading. In addition to profit-taking activities, Digital Turbine stock was pressured by geopolitical dynamics today. The Wall Street Journal published a report today stating that the Trump administration wants to further strengthen export restrictions and prevent companies including Samsung, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, and SK Hynix from shipping chipmaking technologies to their factories in China. Adding another bearish catalyst, investors moved out of stocks due to the possibility that military strikes between Israel and Iran will intensify and that the U.S. could enter the conflict on behalf of Israel. For the current fiscal year, Digital Turbine is guiding for revenue between $515 million and $525 million -- good for annual growth of roughly 6% at the midpoint of the target range. Meanwhile, non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) are projected to be between $85 million and $90 million -- representing growth of 21% at the midpoint of the guidance range. Digital Turbine's performance outlook became significantly stronger following its quarterly release earlier this week, but there are factors that could cause continued volatility for the stock. The company does most of its business in China, and rising geopolitical tensions present substantial risk factors even though it's not a hardware company. Before you buy stock in Digital Turbine, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and Digital Turbine wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $659,171!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $891,722!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 995% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 172% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join . See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of June 9, 2025 Keith Noonan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Why Digital Turbine Stock Plummeted Today was originally published by The Motley Fool Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
