What the US Fed's interest rate decision means for South Africa's property sector
Further rate cuts this year would be beneficial for property developers and investors, as well as for stimulating domestic consumption, which could, in turn, support local economic growth.
Image: Tracey Adams/Independent Media
The United States Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates may influence the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee when it meets to announce its decision on the local repo rate at the end of next month.
On Wednesday night, the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady but signalled possible cuts later this year.
Fed chairperson, Jerome Powell, warned that rising tariffs could push inflation higher and delayed any easing - much to the dismay of President Trump, said Bianca Botes, Director at Citadel Global.
She said Asian markets retreated as investors grew cautious, with stocks and currencies weakening amid uncertainty over US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict.
'Oil prices slipped after President Trump's unclear stance on the Middle East conflict. US equity futures have edged lower, while trading in Treasuries has paused for the US Juneteenth holiday. The rand is on the back foot given the current cautious setting. It starts the day at R18.04/$, R20.68/€ and R24.19/£,' Botes said on Thursday morning.
Early indicators from the SARB and various economists suggest that a rate cut may be considered at the upcoming meeting, aligning with the global trend toward a monetary easing cycle, says Dr Farai Nyika, an Academic Programme Leader at the School of Public Administration of the Management College of Southern Africa (Mancosa).
He said that notably, other major economies such as Switzerland and Norway have recently cut interest rates, while the United Kingdom has opted to maintain its current rates.
'The European Central Bank also reduced its rates on June 5, 2025, reinforcing the broader trend of declining interest rates,' Nyika said.
The academic said further rate cuts would be beneficial for property developers and investors, as well as for stimulating domestic consumption, which could, in turn, support local economic growth. However, he said this optimistic outlook remains uncertain.
With the recent geopolitical tensions, including the outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Iran, he said this may exert inflationary pressures through increased imported fuel costs.
'This phenomenon of 'imported inflation' could compel the SARB to delay any anticipated rate cuts in July. Nonetheless, the local property market is in a stronger position than it was one or two years ago, largely due to previous rate cuts. As such, even a decision to maintain the current repo rate in July would likely be welcomed by the sector,' Nyika said.
The fact that SA interest rates are higher than in the US is the result of many different factors, but in practical terms, it makes the country an emerging market investment destination, says Professor Waldo Krugell, an economist within the School of Economic Sciences at the North West University (NWU).
He said it creates a demand for SA bonds, and by implication, for rands.
'To maintain the exchange rate, we don't want that differential to narrow too much. The implication is that if the Fed holds rates, the SARB is also more likely to hold rates,' Krugell said.
He added that if the Fed does end up cutting rates later in the year and inflation stays low in SA, the country might see another cut or two and that would benefit the property sector.
However, he said that there is a lot of uncertainty at the moment with real wars, trade wars and possibly a new inflation target in SA.
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What the US Fed's interest rate decision means for South Africa's property sector
Further rate cuts this year would be beneficial for property developers and investors, as well as for stimulating domestic consumption, which could, in turn, support local economic growth. Image: Tracey Adams/Independent Media The United States Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates may influence the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee when it meets to announce its decision on the local repo rate at the end of next month. On Wednesday night, the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady but signalled possible cuts later this year. Fed chairperson, Jerome Powell, warned that rising tariffs could push inflation higher and delayed any easing - much to the dismay of President Trump, said Bianca Botes, Director at Citadel Global. She said Asian markets retreated as investors grew cautious, with stocks and currencies weakening amid uncertainty over US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict. 'Oil prices slipped after President Trump's unclear stance on the Middle East conflict. US equity futures have edged lower, while trading in Treasuries has paused for the US Juneteenth holiday. The rand is on the back foot given the current cautious setting. It starts the day at R18.04/$, R20.68/€ and R24.19/£,' Botes said on Thursday morning. Early indicators from the SARB and various economists suggest that a rate cut may be considered at the upcoming meeting, aligning with the global trend toward a monetary easing cycle, says Dr Farai Nyika, an Academic Programme Leader at the School of Public Administration of the Management College of Southern Africa (Mancosa). He said that notably, other major economies such as Switzerland and Norway have recently cut interest rates, while the United Kingdom has opted to maintain its current rates. 'The European Central Bank also reduced its rates on June 5, 2025, reinforcing the broader trend of declining interest rates,' Nyika said. The academic said further rate cuts would be beneficial for property developers and investors, as well as for stimulating domestic consumption, which could, in turn, support local economic growth. However, he said this optimistic outlook remains uncertain. With the recent geopolitical tensions, including the outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Iran, he said this may exert inflationary pressures through increased imported fuel costs. 'This phenomenon of 'imported inflation' could compel the SARB to delay any anticipated rate cuts in July. Nonetheless, the local property market is in a stronger position than it was one or two years ago, largely due to previous rate cuts. As such, even a decision to maintain the current repo rate in July would likely be welcomed by the sector,' Nyika said. The fact that SA interest rates are higher than in the US is the result of many different factors, but in practical terms, it makes the country an emerging market investment destination, says Professor Waldo Krugell, an economist within the School of Economic Sciences at the North West University (NWU). He said it creates a demand for SA bonds, and by implication, for rands. 'To maintain the exchange rate, we don't want that differential to narrow too much. The implication is that if the Fed holds rates, the SARB is also more likely to hold rates,' Krugell said. He added that if the Fed does end up cutting rates later in the year and inflation stays low in SA, the country might see another cut or two and that would benefit the property sector. However, he said that there is a lot of uncertainty at the moment with real wars, trade wars and possibly a new inflation target in SA. Independent Media Property
