Rafael Devers is walking more than ever, which is a good sign for his future

Pull up a list of major leaguers who have played 1,000 games before turning 29. Sort them by adjusted OPS (OPS+), which accounts for league-wide scoring levels and ballparks. Focus on the first 200 names. Now you have a list of All-Stars, with a lot of Hall of Famers mixed in.
That's the elevator pitch for Rafael Devers. Among players who played a lot of games before turning 30, Devers was among the best hitters. He's keeping company with Al Kaline and Dave Winfield, if you're looking to compare him with Hall of Famers. He's keeping company with Jack Clark and Reggie Smith, if you're looking to compare him to Hall of Very Gooders with a Giants connection. It's a list of players who can provide supporting evidence for whatever narrative you want to tell. If you're worried about Devers' limited defensive ability preventing him from aging gracefully, Kent Hrbek and Greg Luzinski are on the list. If you're projecting a Hall of Fame career, you can tally up the inductees with a lower OPS+ through their age-28 season. There are 35 who hit better than Devers, and there are 44 who hit worse.
Advertisement
None of this tells us how Devers will age, or how much of a bargain or albatross he'll be toward the end of his contract. It's just another way to say, 'so far, so good.' What he's already done is impressive, and while he's not quite as young as his cherubic face might suggest, he's still in the prime of his career. Let's update the description, then: So far, so great.
Devers got on this list by being consistent. Check his slash line since 2019 (excluding the 60-game 2020 season):
2019: .311/.361/.555 (132 OPS+)
2021: .279/.352/.538 (134 OPS+)
2022: .295/.358/.521 (141 OPS+)
2023: .271/.351/.500 (126 OPS+)
2024: .272/.354/.516 (142 OPS+)
The batting average fluctuated a little bit because that's what they do, but the overall production was remarkably steady. Even more impressive, Devers had at least 600 plate appearances in all five of those seasons. With continued health, he'll be the best hitter on the Giants for the next several years if he keeps hitting like this.
A simple story that doesn't have to get more complicated. A 28-year-old has had a very good career to this point, and if nothing changes, he'll continue having one. That 'if nothing changes' is doing a lot of work, of course. He'll need to stay healthy for the back end of his contract to not be a huge problem. He'll need to follow expected aging curves and keep hitting into his early 30s. He'll need to keep hitting for power.
There's another reason why 'if nothing changes' is doing a lot of work in that sentence. Something might have already changed.
Devers is staying in the strike zone more than he ever has, and he's walking a lot more as a result. He has the fourth-highest walk rate in baseball, and he's walking more than Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber or Aaron Judge. He literally walked the very second I typed the period at the end of the previous sentence. He's a walking machine these days, and both chase rate and walk rate are statistics that stabilize quickly, so it doesn't have to be small-sample shenanigans.
This isn't just important because it appeals to walk fetishists and scratches that 'Moneyball' itch. It's important because over Devers' career, this has been the missing piece. It's been the only missing piece, other than speed. He's been a great hitter over his career, but he hasn't been a generational talent. He's giving himself a chance at the Hall of Fame, but it's hard to say he's on a Hall of Fame pace. He's a three-time All-Star, but he's never had a top-10 MVP finish, and he certainly isn't a superstar outside of New England.
Advertisement
The one thing preventing him from all of the above: patience. The players who make fewer outs while also clobbering extra-base hits are the generational talents, the MVPs who are on Hall of Fame paces. Devers is an outstanding hitter when he sports a .350-ish OBP. If he can get that into the .400s consistently, though, he could be a top-five hitter in baseball. Maybe he's already there.
This is, of course, the part of the article where I hedge my bets and present a counterpoint to all of those fun ideas. Devers is walking more, but he's also making less contact when he swings. A lot less contact, with the lowest contact percentage and highest swinging-strike rate of his career. The biggest change is with his swings and misses at pitches in the strike zone. He's swinging through a lot more strikes.
There are a lot of possible reasons for this, and not all of them are bad. It could be a conscious decision to make even better contact, even if it comes with less contact. But the likelier scenario is that Devers doesn't like all this swinging and missing, and he'll continue working to fix it. If he gets back to his career averages, that will mean more balls in play and, presumably, fewer walks.
Is that a pretty weak counterpoint? Feels like a pretty weak counterpoint, but it's all I got. The idea of Devers maintaining a top-five walk rate should absolutely thrill Giants fans. There are very justified concerns about the money that's now committed to a 1B/DH-type throughout his early and mid-30s, but a lot of that has to do with the good-not-great OBPs that Devers has had in the past. He's a fantastic hitter with a .350 OBP, but it's easy to imagine that kind of OBP dipping closer to the league average without warning, then settling comfortably below in subsequent seasons. With a high-OBP batter, the aging curve looks a lot friendlier. If he can maintain a .400-ish OBP throughout his peak, then it wouldn't be unthinkable for a 35-year-old Devers to have numbers similar to the ones he put up when he was 25.
We're still in the first half of the season, which means this is something to watch, not something to expect. A couple months with a few more walks isn't enough to guarantee that Devers has leveled up. But if he's really found something with how he tracks pitches, if he's showing off a new and sustainable skill, it's hard to overstate how encouraging of a sign that would be.
Advertisement
And if he goes back to the hitter he's always been, that's pretty cool, too. That's the best part of this. We're not talking about something that's turning a mediocre player into a solid regular; we're talking about something that could turn an All-Star into an MVP. If it doesn't stick, he's just a 28-year-old All-Star again.
If you think walks are unexciting — and you should — maybe this will change your mind a little. Now you can pump your fist with every good take and checked swing. You can howl with delight when an umpire flinches but doesn't make the call. Rafael Devers currently has one of the best walk rates in baseball. If he keeps that up for a few seasons, he won't just be one of the best hitters in baseball: He'll be a bargain.

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Learn with AIFact CheckingText to SpeechAI Summary

Related Articles

Yahoo

8 minutes ago

• Yahoo

Dodgers Urged to Trade for Braves' Chris Sale

Dodgers Urged to Trade for Braves' Chris Sale originally appeared on Athlon Sports. The Los Angeles Dodgers rarely stand pat when the trade deadline approaches — especially when their rivals are making moves. This season, with injuries piling up to star arms like Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, and Roki Sasaki, Los Angeles has an obvious need to bolster its rotation. Advertisement According to Yahoo Sports' MLB insider Russell Dorsey, one intriguing trade target could be Atlanta Braves ace Chris Sale. Brett Davis-Imagn Images 'Coming off his first season in Atlanta, which saw him win the 2024 NL Cy Young Award, Sale has followed up with another strong campaign,' Dorsey wrote. 'Now 36, Sale is 4-4 with a 2.79 ERA and tied for fifth in MLB in strikeouts. And while the eight-time All-Star is likely in the twilight of his career, he's proving every fifth day that he's still one of the best starters in baseball.' That kind of pedigree would make Sale the top arm on the market — if the Braves ever make him available. Advertisement Atlanta has struggled to keep up with the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East, and the Braves could look to sell if they believe their playoff hopes have faded. On the other hand, Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos is not one to punt on a season. 'If the Braves were open to trading him, Sale would easily be the most coveted starter at the deadline,' Dorsey wrote. 'But that's a big if. Anthopoulos is known for being aggressive— selling isn't something he's known to do.' Still, with the Dodgers' rotation in need and their championship window open, expect them to monitor Sale closely as the deadline approaches. Related: Dodgers Insider Provides Insight into Shohei Ohtani's Accelerated Rehab Timeline This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jun 20, 2025, where it first appeared.

New York Times

9 minutes ago

• New York Times

Wisconsin files lawsuit against Miami, alleging tampering led to Xavier Lucas' transfer

The University of Wisconsin and its name, image and likeness collective sued the University of Miami on Friday, alleging it interfered with what it said were binding NIL revenue-sharing contracts with former cornerback Xavier Lucas. The lawsuit, filed Friday in Dane County (Wis.) Circuit Court, alleges Miami made 'impermissible contacts with (Lucas) and his representatives this past December and January, leading to Lucas' withdrawal from Wisconsin and enrollment at Miami. Advertisement 'As a result of Miami's actions, (Lucas) abruptly left UW-Madison's football program and enrolled at Miami, causing plaintiffs to suffer substantial pecuniary and reputational harm,' the lawsuit states. The lawsuit, which Yahoo Sports first reported on, does not name Lucas but refers to him as 'Student-Athlete A.' The suit adds another layer to the power struggle between schools, conferences and athletes, as athletes sign NIL deals but abandon those contracts to enter the transfer portal. The House v. NCAA settlement, which will allow schools to directly compensate athletes through revenue sharing for the first time, was approved June 6. For months, schools have signed players to revenue-sharing deals contingent on the settlement's approval, with the intention it would eliminate tampering and slow player movement. The two-year revenue-share agreement Lucas signed shortly after the end of his freshman season in Madison was set to begin July 1, the first day schools can begin directly compensating athletes. In January, Wisconsin released a statement accusing Miami of tampering, citing 'credible information' and threatening to pursue legal action. The Big Ten backed Wisconsin in a statement Friday. 'As alleged, the University of Miami knowingly ignored contractual obligations and disregarded the principle of competitive equity that is fundamental to collegiate athletics,' the Big Ten said. 'The Big Ten Conference believes that the University of Miami's actions are irreconcilable with a sustainable college sports framework and is supportive of UW-Madison's efforts to preserve it.' A Miami representative declined to comment on the report of Friday's lawsuit because the school had not been served papers yet. Wisconsin is seeking unspecified damages in the lawsuit, as well as 'a declaration that Miami's conduct directed towards (Lucas) constituted tampering.' Lucas unenrolled from Wisconsin after school officials denied multiple requests from him and his attorney, Darren Heitner, to place his name in the transfer portal during the 20-day winter window (Dec. 9-28). Wisconsin maintains it told Lucas and his mother it would not put his name into the portal because of the two-year NIL contract he signed in December. Advertisement In the lawsuit filed Friday, Wisconsin alleges Miami's 'wrongful conduct' led to Lucas' reaching out to a Wisconsin assistant coach on the evening of Dec. 17 — two days after returning home to South Florida for winter break — and asking to be placed in the transfer portal. A day later, Lucas 'offered a personal, family-related reason for wanting to enter the transfer portal' in a text message. Three days later, however, a relative of Lucas' contacted a Wisconsin coach and provided information 'inconsistent with his family-related rationale for seeking to transfer,' the lawsuit says. The lawsuit alleges Lucas told his position coach before heading home for winter break that he had been contacted by other schools to enter the portal but 'reaffirmed that he was committed to UW-Madison.' Wisconsin said it obtained information indicating that Miami had impermissible contact with Lucas and his representatives on multiple occasions in December and January, including sending a coach and 'prominent Miami alumnus' to Lucas' South Florida home; and offering him a 'more lucrative' compensation package than the one Wisconsin was paying him. Lucas enrolled in classes at Miami in January and participated in the Hurricanes' spring football practice in March and April. The sophomore, who had 18 tackles as a freshman, is expected to be one of Miami's best defensive players this fall. The NCAA said in January that its rules 'could not prevent a student-athlete from unenrolling from an institution, enrolling at a new institution and competing immediately.' Wisconsin, though, was not punished for keeping Lucas' name out of the portal. 'Enforcement is shaky — schools can block portal entry, even if it is against NCAA rules, as seen with Lucas,' Heitner told The Athletic earlier this month. 'Wisconsin appears to have escaped punishment, at least for the time being, despite the clear rules violation.' Advertisement Wisconsin's lawsuit also alleges Miami's conduct toward Lucas was not an isolated event but part of a broader pattern of Miami's tampering with student-athletes. 'Now more than ever, it is imperative to protect the integrity and fundamental fairness of the game, including in connection with NIL contracts,' the lawsuit states. 'Indeed, student-athletes' newfound NIL rights will be rendered meaningless if third parties are allowed to induce student-athletes to abandon their contractual commitments.' — The Athletic's Chris Vannini contributed to this report.

Forbes

18 minutes ago

• Forbes

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr Says ‘I Want To End Jake Paul's Career'

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - MAY 14: Jake Paul, left, gestures towards Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., Mexico's ... More former world champion, right, as Oscar De La Hoya, of Golden Boy Promotions, center, looks on during a boxing news conference at the Avalon Hollywood Theatre in Los Angeles on May 14, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by) On Saturday, June 28, Jake Paul and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. will face off in a 10-round boxing match. If Chavez gets his wish, the contest, which will be contested at 200 pounds, will be the final fight of Paul's boxing career. During an interview with Ariel Helwani, Chavez was asked if he was motivated to score a knockout when the two meet at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California, and get Paul out of boxing. 'Yes,' Chávez said. "You know, I still think that I'm better than Jake Paul, so I think after this fight maybe Jake continues to fight and tries to be a better boxer, but I don't think he has the skills and everything to win the fight. Yes, I want to end Jake Paul's career." Chavez, a former WBC middleweight champion, enters the upcoming matchup with a 54-6-1-1 record. He is coming off a July 2024 decision win over former UFC fighter Uriah Hall. The 39-year-old said of his fight against Paul and what he hopes it could lead to. 'I want to make it clear that I'm still here,' said Chavez. "I'm not old, and I take this sport seriously. I train hard. I'm disciplined. I'm 39, so I don't think I'm old. I still feel good in the gym. I want to prove that I'm still here, that I'm still a good fighter. So I want to fight better opposition after this fight, and that's why I take this fight. Chavez has had a hard time shaking the visual of his 2019 loss to Daniel Jacobs. A fight where he came in overweight and quit in the fifth round. Chavez's action on that night left the crowd at Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix, Arizona showering the ring with debris. Chavez is 3-2 since that loss, but he says he will be a different fighter against Paul. "Now I'm disciplined, I'm focused, I want to finish the fight with Paul with a win and take this opportunity to be back in real boxing. That's my goal." Paul (11-1) has not fought since he defeated Mike Tyson by unanimous decision in November 2024. The Paul vs. Chavez Jr. fight card streams on DAZN PPV. Paul vs. Chavez Jr. Main Event 200 lbs.: Jake Paul (11-1) vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. (54-6-1) x 10 Paul vs. Chavez Jr. PPV Main Card 200 lbs.: Gilberto 'Zurdo' Ramirez (47-1) vs. Yuniel Dorticos (27-2) Unified Cruiserweight Championship (WBO & WBA titles) x 12 132 lbs.: Holly Holm (33-2-3) vs. Yolanda Vega (10-0) x 10 135 lbs.: Floyd 'Kid Austin' Schofield (18-0, 12) vs. Tevin Farmer (33-8-1) x 10 147 lbs.: Avious Griffin (17-0) vs. Julian Rodriguez (23-1) x 10 147 lbs.: Raul Curiel (15-0-1) vs. Victor Ezequiel Rodriguez (16-0-1) x 10 Paul vs. Chavez Jr. Preliminary Card 115 lbs.: John Ramirez (14-1) vs. TBD x10 126 lbs.: Victor Morales (20-0-1) vs. Renee Alvarado (34-16) x10 118 lbs.: Alexander Gueche (7-0, 5) vs Vincent Avina (8-1-1) x10 147 lbs.: Joel Iriarte (7-0) vs. Yusuph Metu (11-2) x10 108 lbs.: Naomy Valle (14-0) vs. Ashley Felix (7-3) x 10 We will have more on the Paul vs. Chavez fight and the upcoming fight card as fight night nears.