2025 Winter Cup: Adrian Bott, Gai Waterhouse saddle up two
Bear On The Loose faces a stamina test and Sir Lucan is trying to snap a year-long losing streak.
But trainer Adrian Bott has a quiet confidence in both imported geldings going into the Listed $200,000 Winter Cup (2400m) at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.
With co-trainer Gai Waterhouse in England trying to source their stable's next overseas equine recruits, Bott has kept famous Tulloch Lodge's winning momentum going in recent weeks.
In fact, if Bear On The Loose or Sir Lucan can win the Winter Cup or the Waterhouse-Bott team has success at Eagle Farm, it will move the training partnership closer to a career-best season at Group and Listed level.
There's less than two months of the 2024-25 season remaining but Waterhouse and Bott have already trained the winners of 33 stakes races and need just two more black type wins to equal their previous best return at feature race level they set last season.
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TAB Fixed Odds price assessors have Bear On The Loose early Winter Cup favourite at $3.60 with stablemate and defending champ Sir Lucan at $23.
Bott also conceded Bear On The Loose was the stable's number one seed even though the five-year-old has never been out to 2400m in his 13 career starts.
Bear On The Loose goes to the Winter Cup after three lead-up runs including a close second to Glory Daze over 2000m at Randwick last start.
'We feel he's racing well and the form out of his Randwick run is good,'' Bott said.
'He stuck on nicely that day on a very heavy track and the drier conditions (Rosehill is rated a soft 5) are going to be to his advantage.''
Bott said he expected Bear On The Loose to take up the frontrunning role.
'I think he is most likely to lead and hopefully he can roll along at his own tempo,'' Bott said. 'I'm confident he can run 2400m.''
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Sir Lucan has been winless since taking out the Winter Cup 12 months ago.
But the seven-year-old returns to defend his 'title' and if successful will join Royal Bark (1962-63) as the only horses to win successive Winter Cups.
The only other multiple Winter Cup winner was the remarkable Destiny's Kiss – but his wins were six years apart in 2013 and 2019. The former Joe Pride-trained stayer also ran second (2018) and third (2017) in the feature Rosehill staying race.
Sir Lucan has only had the one start this campaign when he failed to beat a rival to the line in the Lord Mayor's Cup won by Touristic two weeks ago.
Bott was cautiously optimistic about Sir Lucan's chances of staging the ultimate form reversal and going back-to-back in the Winter Cup.
'Sir Lucan got further back than expected first-up, he should improve again but is still working his way back to his peak,'' Bott said.
'He's worked well since and he's certainly capable of running well but Bear On The Loose is the stable's best chance.''
• Ray & Duff's best bets for Saturday: 'First-up run was hard to miss'
Bott also has another import, Assailant, set to race competitively in the TAB Handicap (2000m).
Assailant, by English super sire Dubawi, shaped promisingly at his Australian debut when third to Hell To Pay at Canterbury.
'It was a nice run from Assailant a couple of weeks ago and he's in great shape,'' Bott enthused.
'He should improve on a bigger track and more suitable distance. He's a young horse with a future.''
• EXPERT TIPS: Clinton Payne's race-by-race tips and analysis for Rosehill Gardens on Saturday
Bott, who also has topweight Ganbare resuming in the Ranvet Handicap (1500m), said Waterhouse will attend England's famous Goffs Sale next Monday on the eve of the Royal Ascot carnival.
'We are going through the catalogue for the Goffs Sale next week,'' Bott said.
'Gai will be there and we have had some luck at that sale. Pornichet came from that sale, as did New Endeavour.''
Pornichet won the Group 1 Doomben Cup a decade ago and New Endeavour, a last start winner of the Lord Mayor's Cup, is one of the main chances in the Group 2 $1.2 million Q22 (2200m) at Eagle Farm on Saturday.
'New Endeavour won really well last start and has trained on nicely,'' Bott said.
'He is going to this distance for the first time but that win will give him confidence.''
The Waterhouse-Bott stable is also represented in both Group 1 races with The Instructor lining up in the $3 million Stradbroke Handicap (1400m) and Farnicle is in the $1 million JJ Atkins (1600m).
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The Instructor has won three of his four starts this campaign including the Listed Luskin Star Stakes at Scone a month ago.
Bott said it has been a deliberate tactic to keep The Instructor on the fresh side for the Stradbroke.
'The Instructor is in good form, he's deep into his campaign but he's well in himself,'' Bott said.
'The plan was if he ran well at Scone then the option was to go to the Stradbroke and we have given him a trial between runs.
'He gets in with a lightweight (52kg) so there's plenty to like about him. Jett Stanley has won on the horse, he knows him well, and he can ride the weight.''
• Jett Hatton's Stradbroke Handicap tips, runner-by-runner form analysis
Bott also made a strong case for Farnicle after the two-year-old's good second to Cool Archie in the BRC Sires Produce Stakes.
'Farnicle keeps improving every time he steps out,'' Bott said.
'He is out of a good New Zealand mare (Jennifer Ecles who won the 2020 NZ Oaks) so there is plenty to suggest he will stay the trip. I think he will be suited by the mile.''
• Jett Hatton's JJ Atkins tips, runner-by-runner form analysis
The Waterhouse and Bott-trained Campaldino is aiming for a fourth consecutive win in the Group 2 $400,000 Brisbane Cup (3200m).
'Campaldino has had a good grounding for 3200m,'' Bott said. 'The way he has been relaxing and racing gives you the confidence he will see it out.''
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