Bad luck, Lord Hermer. We are inextricably involved in any US strike on Iran

The US might be about to assist Israel in the striking of Iran's underground uranium enrichment plants. The media is awash with attempts to predict what will happen, but given the number of moving parts, and the person in charge, this is not proving easy. However American colleagues of mine are sure it's a matter of 'when' America will strike, not 'if '.
Meanwhile it is not at all clear what the UK Government's stance is. The Attorney General, Lord Hermer, is warning that the UK joining the war on Iran may be illegal. My view is that he is a little late to the party here. We've had ships, aircraft and troops in the region since before 2003 – all facing Iran and contributing to operations against it and its proxies. We have conducted intelligence gathering throughout and shared that with allies. More recently, we have conducted strikes against Iranian proxies and have refuelled aircraft in direct support of Israel's defensive operations against them.
Right now we are housing American B-2 bombers – the likely centrepiece of any US strike – on British territory, Diego Garcia (highlighting with impeccable timing the strategic incontinence of the pending loss of sovereignty there). What is Lord Hermer suggesting – we should withdraw our support? That would be unbelievably short-sighted. Or is he, like many, failing to distinguish between a handful of precision strikes from 40,000 feet and a third Gulf War?
There is a long and nuanced spectrum between 'do nothing' and 'war'. Binary interjections such as Hermer's don't reflect this reality and simply add uncertainty to a government which already seems pretty uncertain. When the No.10 comms machine gags UK generals and admirals at a RUSI land warfare conference, but allows foreign officers to be quoted – as happened yesterday – you know you are dealing with a system that's deeply uncomfortable with political-military leadership.
This is probably why the ships of Operation Highmast, including HMS Prince of Wales, have gone straight past Iran and are much of the way to the Pacific. I'd like to think that it was a high level decision between us and the US about where our different carriers could best be used and that the decision was that she should fill the hole left by the USS Nimitz as she steams towards the Gulf of Oman. In fact, this would be entirely reasonable. But I fear that the Government simply failed to make a decision. I hope I'm wrong but when you see senior officers gagged you have to suspect that they and the Government disagree.
Meanwhile out in the big world, the US now has nearly everything in place to make a move. Everyone has been surprised by the speed with which the IDF suppressed Iranian air defences: there has never been a better time to defang Iran and remove their ability to produce a nuclear weapon once and for all.
There is some doubt that even the US with its powerful Massive Ordnance Penetrators can actually do the job, however. Iran's nuclear facilities, Fordow in particular, are buried deep inside the mountains.
Then there is the fact that Iran is not entirely toothless. This is why we are seeing aircraft leave the air base in Al Udeid and ships departing from Bahrain. Sensible precautions: and in the case of the aircraft, this permits them to operate from countries who would permit strikes from their territory.
Does Israel have a backup plan if the MOP isn't used or doesn't work? Storming a fortress bunker of this size and at this sort of range – one whose defences have had decades to prepare – is the sort of mission that makes me glad I joined the Navy. The IDF and the Israeli secret services have pulled off some astonishing special operations in their time but this might be too hard even for them.
Meanwhile the USS Nimitz is closing and could be just three days from her probable battle station in the Gulf of Oman. I don't want to overplay her role in all this but another 75 jets, Hawkeye radar/command planes, a ballistic intercept umbrella – under the flight path from Iran to Diego Garcia, too – and hundreds of cruise missiles will come in handy. It's unlikely the US will make a move until Nimitz is on hand.
The question of regime change is also much discussed. Mrs. Maryam Rajavi, the President-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, made some remarks in Strasbourg yesterday. She said this is a vital juncture in 'the struggle of the people of Iran and the Iranian Resistance against the ruling religious fascism'.
'The only viable solution remains the overthrow of this regime by the people of Iran and the Iranian Resistance … this regime that has executed 1,350 prisoners in the last year alone [must] be replaced by a democracy'.
With the myths of strength and competence of the current regime now lying in tatters, now may be the time.
Meanwhile the only people saying much in Britain are the lawyers. We wring our hands, silence our senior military and seemingly hope for the best. The Attorney General 'has concerns about the UK playing any role in this except for defending our allies'. It's very hard to see how stopping Iran from having a nuclear weapon is anything other than that – and indeed self-defence on our own part. This is not the same as opening another war in the Middle East, in fact it's the opposite. It's preventative self-defence against a barbaric regime and we should back our allies to achieve it.
What we now need is strong and clear leadership, with associated open and confident communications, that reflects this.

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Daily Mail​

31 minutes ago

• Daily Mail​

Israel's ambassador to the UK takes aim at Labour's half-hearted backing for her war-torn nation as it takes on Iran

In Israel, where warnings of attacks from enemy nations are rampant, being woken at 6am by a loud air raid alarm is all-too common. But when the same sound pierced the air two hours later, Tzipi Hotovely, Israel's first female ambassador to Britain, realised this warning was more serious than usual. The third time it rang out in central Israel, where she was staying with her in-laws, she turned to her husband as they hurried to the family bomb shelter and said: 'This is war.' Chillingly, she was right. It was the morning of October 7, 2023, when Hamas terrorists stormed through a security fence sealing Israel from Gaza and militants flew in firing guns from paragliders. That day – the worst intelligence failure in the country's history – was marked by carnage and barbarity on an unprecedented scale. In their murderous rampage, Hamas killed 1,189 people and wounded 7,500 - leaving many with life-changing injuries. The terrorists raped and sexually abused hundreds of women and young girls. To this day 53 hostages are still in captivity, and the ambassador fears only 20 may still be alive. Some of Tzipi Hotovely's loved ones were among the victims. 'We lost members of our extended family. We lost friends,' she says of that horrendous day. The war that began that morning is now reaching a new peak with Israel's relentless bombardment of Iran. She says that her parents, who remain in Israel, have been caught in the crossfires of Tehran's retaliatory strikes in the past week. Three or more times every night, they have been moving into the bomb shelter in the basement. Not long before we speak, a ballistic missile landed close to her parents' home. Despite the civilian death toll on both sides, the straight-talking ambassador is in no doubt about the justification of waging war on Iran. At 75 times the size of Israel, Iran has sponsored a proxy network of terror groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen to fuel conflict against the Jewish state. 'We have given Iran 20 years to try to make diplomacy work but they are more interested in blowing up the negotiating table than sitting next to it,' she tells me. 'Iran is 1,500 kilometres (900 miles) from Israel but it has circled us with its proxies. We are vulnerable. We are a small country the same size as Wales. 'Iran was on the threshold of making nuclear weapons and we had to stop it. This is not just our war. Iran is Britain's enemy. It is America's war too.' The ambassador, who has been in Britain since 2020 when Boris Johnson was prime minister, lavishes praise on Britain's intelligence agencies MI5 and MI6 for their help: 'They are brilliant.' But, while she liked Johnson as PM, she struggles to conceal her disappointment – even anger – with Sir Keir Starmer and his bumbling Foreign Secretary David Lammy, whose gaffes have tried the patience of even the most loyal Labour MPs. As a diplomat, she chooses her words carefully. 'We have gaps with the British Government,' she tells me. Talk about an under-statement. It is more like yawning chasms in terms of support than gaps. Take the decision of the Starmer Government in September to restrict arms sales to Israel, which is the only democracy in the Middle East. 'It was political. In Jerusalem, people were astonished by the arms embargo. It is just so contradictory. When you are fighting the right war, you expect your allies to support you,' Hotovely tells me. Then there was the unexpected move by the Government last week to impose sanctions on two Israeli government ministers over their hardline stance on the Gaza war. The ambassador says: 'It was a very bad decision, morally wrong. You put sanctions on your enemy not your friend.' To underline this, she points to former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn who was denounced by the Equalities and Human Rights Commission in 2020 for presiding over 'a culture within the party which, at best, did not do enough to prevent anti-Semitism and, at worst, could be seen to accept it'. She adds: 'Jeremy Corbyn could have been prime minister of Britain. He was anti-Semitic. 'He had supported a terrorist organisation. But we never sanctioned him or the Labour Party. We respect the British people. We can criticise their leaders but we don't sanction them.' As for David Lammy, she is even more circumspect when I ask if she thinks he is remotely up to the job of being Britain's diplomat-in-chief on the world stage. Lammy was widely criticised after saying he accepted the International Criminal Court's decision to issue an arrest warrant for Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu for war crimes. 'It was a miserable decision,' says Hotovely. 'The ICC is a biased political organisation, which is why US President Donald Trump has imposed sanctions on it. The British Government was used as a political tool by the court.' The ambassador is keenly aware that Labour's support from the Muslim community collapsed at the General Election in July last year. In the 21 seats where more than 30 per cent of the population is Muslim, Labour's share dropped from an average 65 per cent in 2019 to 36 per cent. Four Independent Muslim candidates won in previously safe Labour seats, and the situation in Gaza was a hot election issue. Hotovely, 46, is trenchant in her criticism. 'There is no doubt that the Muslim vote is a crucial part of Labour Party politics in Britain,' she declares. 'No one can deny it. It is clear to me. Many decisions about Israel are made [in Britain] according to domestic politics. It is a fact.' It was when she was just 26 that Hotovely first came to the attention of Netanyahu, who was then leader of the opposition. By this stage, she was a qualified lawyer who had done two years of national service and was working as a political commentator on TV. Netanyahu spotted her and, seeing her talent, made contact. 'I was called into his office. His first statement to me was, 'This is 1938. Iran is the equivalent to Nazi Germany'. That was his dramatic opening. It wasn't 'welcome to my office' or 'nice to see you'. That was 20 years ago. He was right then and he's right now.' Many now consider her to be Netanyahu's protege. Elected as an MP when she was 30, she is a small part of political history. 'Before I was in parliament, all the women MPs had grown-up children,' she says. 'I got married when I was an MP and had babies when I was an MP. I turned my parliamentary office into a nursery. 'I brought a nanny into the office. All my meetings were outside the office. Five times a day I returned to it to breastfeed my baby.' Her three daughters Maayan, 11, Eliraz, nine, and Noa, seven, love her being an ambassador. 'My youngest says, 'When I grow up, Mummy, I want to be the ambassador'. I never got that compliment when I was a politician.' In parliament she held eight ministerial posts – more than any other woman in Israeli politics with the exception of Golda Meir who was Israel's first and only woman prime minister from 1969 to 1974. Was Golda Meir her political hero? 'Absolutely not. It is Margaret Thatcher. She was a remarkable woman, a brave politician. Mrs Thatcher saved the British economy and her free-market thinking inspired Israel. 'In Britain I have seen that Winston Churchill is remembered everywhere. Quite right. But Mrs Thatcher is not – which means you need a place for people to learn about her.' In Israel, Hotovely was often demonised by her opponents for being hard-Right and a religious zealot. She is unmoved by the criticism. 'In politics if, like Mrs Thatcher, you make great changes you will never be loved. I am very opinionated. If you want to be loved, find another profession than politics.' It was Netanyahu who persuaded her to take up the ambassador role. She prepared for it by binge-watching the 1980s political satire Yes Minister, a favourite of Margaret Thatcher. The star of the TV series was the civil servant Sir Humphrey Appleby, played by the late Nigel Hawthorne. 'I loved Sir Humphrey and it gave me a great insight into the British civil service,' she says with a loud laugh. 'I have met some really interesting British diplomats.' When she arrived in Britain, she coined a nickname for her husband Or Alon, a lawyer she married in 2013 with a staggering 2,500 guests. 'I'd call him Mr Ambassador. Every time we went to a royal event, or an official reception, people would come up to him and say: 'Mr Ambassador'. They never thought it could be me.' She has met the King and says her proudest moment was presenting her credentials as the new ambassador to the late Queen. 'I am so proud and so happy I talked to her, even though it was on Zoom because of lockdown. She said to me, 'You have too many elections in your country'.' Indeed, when Netanyahu was elected again in October 2022, it was the fifth election in Israel in four years. While Hotovely loves Britain – the Scottish Highlands and Cornwall are her favourite places – she says she will not miss 'all those dark nights in your winter'. But she enjoys the dry British sense of humour and says 'the Jewish school my children go to is wonderful. The discipline. The manners'. Yet to this day she is shocked by the anti-Semitism she has experienced in Britain. She believes it is rampant in many universities. When she addressed the London School of Economics in 2021, she needed an armed escort off the premises. 'I did not think in post-war Europe I would experience these levels of hate. I am very involved with the Jewish community here and they no longer feel safe. They don't think they can wear symbols of their Jewishness on their clothes.' By tradition, many Jewish families place a mezuzah, a small symbol of their Jewish faith, on their front door frame. 'But since October 7 most now have brought those symbols into the house, which is very sad.' Since the war with Gaza, she has become one of the most closely guarded women in Britain. 'I cannot even go to the synagogue because of the security so I pray at home. The security guys are all British. They have been wonderful to me and my family.' Every Saturday there is a huge march, involving thousands of pro-Palestine protesters, into central London. There has been repeated criticism of the police for standing by and ignoring anti-Semitic chants and even banners proclaiming support for Hamas. 'There is something badly wrong if a major part of the Jewish community feels they are excluded by the marches from going into central London. I have good relationships with successive home secretaries who say fighting anti-Semitism is an important part of their work. 'But when those marches, with their anti-Jewish slogans go past Big Ben, they are seen by Jewish people on TV all around the world. It sends out a terrible message.' The ambassador has an interesting suggestion. 'Words matter. I think the phrase anti-Semitism is now anachronistic. It does not come across as what it really is – Jewish hatred or racism against Jews. Perhaps we should change the description to reflect that. Education is a key factor.' In the ambassador's view, this education could start with the BBC, which still refuses to call Hamas a terrorist organisation. The corporation maintains that would mean it was taking a side. 'Hamas is an internationally recognised terrorist organisation,' she counters. 'Look what they did on October 7. Hideous terrorist brutality. I don't understand the BBC's position which I think damages its reputation worldwide. 'Hamas use children as human shields. They looted the food aid that we provided. They don't care about their own people but the BBC will not criticise them.' In the current febrile atmosphere, with President Trump upping the anti-Iran rhetoric, it is significant that Starmer has been more circumspect. Is he unwilling to upset the Muslim community or the vocal anti-Israel lobby in his own party? 'The ambassador returns to diplomatic-speak. 'Britain is an important ally. We have shared valuable intelligence with your MI5 and MI6.' No word, however, on Starmer. Later this year, she will go back to Israel because it is the end of her five-year posting. She is widely expected to return to parliament at the election expected next year. She is a serious contender to replace Netanyahu, 75, who has now served as PM for 17 years. 'I think I am tough but I am very human and I have cried so much since the war started. I cry over the devastating loss of life,' she tells me. 'But I am proud of my country. I will be proud to serve my country in whatever way I can. I have been proud to serve as ambassador to your great country.'

Daily Mail​

33 minutes ago

• Daily Mail​

Reckless cyclists who kill pedestrians could be jailed for life as government set to crackdown on 'nightmare' E-bikes

Reckless cyclists who kill or seriously injure pedestrians will face tougher sentences in line with motoring offences. Under changes to the Crime and Policing Bill, a cyclist who kills someone by riding dangerously could face life in prison. Causing serious injury by dangerous cycling – or causing death by careless or inconsiderate cycling – could be met with five years in prison, a fine or both. A serious injury caused by careless or inconsiderate cycling could result in a two-year prison sentence, a fine or both. The law change, which cleared the Commons this week, includes legal e-bikes as well as pedal cycles, the Government said. The Tories agreed to change the law after campaigning by Conservative grandee Iain Duncan Smith – only for it to fall foul of the early general election last year. Sir Iain has worked with Matthew Briggs, whose wife Kim died from head injuries after a collision with a cyclist in London in 2016. Charlie Alliston, who was riding a fixed-gear bike with no front brake, was found guilty of causing bodily harm by 'wanton or furious driving' – a crime under the 1861 Offences Against the Person Act – but cleared of manslaughter. Sir Iain said the change in the law would mean that for the first time there would be specific punishments for 'reckless, dangerous cycling causing injury or death'. The Bill includes e-bikes, which he said were becoming a 'major nightmare' for police, with crimes being committed using them as well as being ridden dangerously. Sir Iain said he hoped the legislation would make it 'worthwhile' for police to arrest someone for such offences. 'Now you have very specific criminal offences at those who misuse and damage people's lives and kill them,' he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme. 'That will now be a specific crime, and will include e-bikes – riding on pavements, smashing into people, causing problems – that becomes a criminal offence.' The Government said it was changing the law to ensure there is an 'appropriate framework of offences to punish dangerous and careless behaviour that results in serious harm to other road users'. The Ministry of Justice said the new offences 'introduce penalties equivalent to those in place if the same level of harm is caused by drivers of other vehicles'. In 2023, four pedestrians were killed and 185 seriously injured after being hit by a cyclist, according to government figures. On average, three pedestrians have been killed per year by cyclists over the past decade.

The Guardian

40 minutes ago

• The Guardian

‘I think you and I are at war': the Australians suddenly united in grief over the Israel-Iran conflict

When Israel triggered a war last Friday after it sent a wave of airstrikes into Iran, Saina Salemi and Oscar were at work in Melbourne, sitting at arm's length away from each other at their desks. Salemi saw the news headline first. She turned to Oscar and said: 'I think you and I are at war.' 'I thought she was kidding,' Oscar, who asked for his last name to not be used, recalled. 'I didn't understand. And then we went to the news, and it had all started, and my heart just sunk immediately.' Salemi, who is 26, moved to Australia from Tehran when she was 7, and Oscar, who is 24 and from Israel, says for the past week they've shared in a grief that feels unending – but there has been a release in sharing it together. The pair became friends when they started work the same day as each other 18 months ago. Since last week, finding out what is happening overseas and if it is affecting their families has become a shared obsession. While sitting next to each other at work, they keep track of the rolling live coverage. Salemi also watches Persian news sources while Oscar watches the Hebrew channels. 'We're translating documents for each other. We're tracking where the missiles are being hit and seeing if they're close to our family members,' Oscar tells Guardian Australia, both he and Salemi speaking on the phone together from their office. 'If we find out information we want the other to know, we text each other, no matter what time of night it is,' Salemi says. Sign up for Guardian Australia's breaking news email Oscar's parents, who were visiting Israel when tensions flared are – for now – stuck there. Salemi's grandparents, aunts, and uncles live in Tehran. Their shared grief has not just been defined by doomscrolling and sharing news about loved ones. Salemi says their focus is on the civilians suffering and the governments 'making the choice' to continue it. 'My people, Palestinians and Israelis are being used as political shields for geopolitical aims,' Salemi says. Oscar says he is also battling a feeling of guilt, despite having no control over what is going on. 'I really care about her family. I feel so guilty, and even though obviously I'm not responsible for the actions of the Israeli government, but nevertheless, it really pains me to just see even more suffering being inflicted.' 'I don't want people to become desensitised to what is happening in the region, and the … scale of pain that is taking place every day. It's getting worse.' By Friday, Israeli strikes on Iran had killed at least 657 people and wounded 2,037 others, according to Washington-based group Human Rights Activists. Of those dead, the group identified 263 civilians and 164 security force personnel. Iran has not given regular death tolls during the conflict and has minimised casualties in the past. In its last update, delivered last Monday, it put the death toll at 224 people and 1,277 wounded. Salemi says she has not heard from her family since the Iranian authorities blocked the internet. 'My auntie woke up in the middle of the night thinking that she was having a heart attack because the initial missile was so close to where she lived,' she says. 'I haven't heard from my family members in 36 hours, and there's a great sense of numbness when you worry that maybe that's the last time you've ever heard from your family members,' she says. Oscar says he sometimes has difficulty reaching his parents by phone to check in on how they are. He struggled with the news that a hospital – where his nan had gotten care once after she had a stroke – had been hit by an Iranian rocket. Salemi says while the bombs are falling from Israel, she also blames the Iranian regime – unpopular among many – for failing to protect its people. She points to there being no bomb shelters for people to turn to and disruptions to internet access that could help in planning escape routes with loved ones. Despite the ruling regime being unpopular, Salemi is frustrated by rhetoric from Israel's president, Benjamin Netanyahu, that Israel could support regime change. 'Regime change in Iran will come internally, at the hands of my own people,' she says. Oscar and Salemi say the war has inflamed the grief they were already feeling for the thousands of people killed by Israeli strikes in Gaza. Oscar said on top of this he is also grieving loved ones that died when Hamas attacked Israel on 7 October. Since Israel and Iran began trading strikes, over 100 people in Gaza have been killed while seeking aid. 'The safety of Israel can't come from anything other than peace – lasting, negotiated peace,' Oscar says. 'I want a serious political solution and a lasting peace.' Asked if there is anything they want the Australian government to do, Salemi says it should focus on getting Australian citizens out of each conflict zone. Australia's foreign minister Penny Wong said on Friday there were about 2,000 Australians and their families in Iran and approximately 1,200 in Israel who wanted to evacuate. 'The security situation is obviously very difficult,' Wong said. ' The airspace remains closed.' Oscar says that last Friday, after Israel first struck Iran, he and Salemi sat on the steps outside their work together. They already felt it could be different to the 'tit-for-tat' strikes in past months. 'I remember I turned to her and said, 'when will this end? How much longer does this have to go on?'.'