High stakes in 10 charts — what SA risks (and gains) in a Trump-Ramaphosa meeting
Much is at stake when President Cyril Ramaphosa and US President Donald Trump meet in Washington on Wednesday, 21 May. Below are 10 charts showing what's on the line.
Hundreds of thousands of jobs and the future of South Africa's motor manufacturing industry and agriculture rest on President Cyril Ramaphosa's meeting with his US counterpart, Donald Trump, in Washington on Wednesday, 21 May.
It's a high-stakes meeting, says Citi South Africa MD Gina Schoeman. She thinks it could go one of three ways, with greater risk to the downside.
'What if they don't meet?' she says, outlining her worst-case scenario, adding that she wouldn't put a high probability on this happening. The upside, she says, would be 'a conversation that takes place formally and with courtesy. They agree on what they will negotiate on in future.' That would be a relief, says Schoeman. The best-case scenario, or what she calls 'the big upside with low probability,' is if 'the meeting was purely about economic issues (exports, imports, and bilateral trade agreements)'.
But the meeting is profoundly political, with efforts in Congress to review the US's relationship with South Africa and consider sanctions against the ANC — a call that resonates with what AfriForum and Solidarity have pushed for.
'It's the softer issues rather than the hard data. We may move a step forward and at least not take a step backward,' says Schoeman. Below are 10 charts showing what's at stake.
1. The US is South Africa's second-largest export destination — we sell a substantial value of manufactured exports to the US market, which is not easily replaced.
2. This is a really important chart as it shows that high-value manufactured products (essentially cars, but others too) are sold to buyers in the US, most of it under the 25-year-old African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa) free trade access programme. Agricultural exports are growing exponentially, so Agriculture Minister John Steenhuisen is a key member of the SA delegation — the Western Cape economy would take a body blow if it lost this market. South Africa's strong relationship with the EU could open new markets for manufactured goods.
3. This chart shows where South Africa's leverage lies. Critical minerals will power future economies, such as electric cars, data centres, new generation mobile phones and other devices. We sell these to the US and have reserves. 'These are the things the US uses in the world,' says Schoeman, adding that critical minerals will be key to the future of Agoa. 'We can negotiate on (and with) agriculture and critical minerals.'
4. This chart shows that SA falls into the group of countries where total goods trade (imports and exports) with China is larger than with the US. SA's relationship with China is important as trade and tourism grow with this superpower. Schoeman says it may be to the US's geopolitical advantage to retain a relationship with South Africa, which remains a gateway economy to the rest of Africa.
5. The motor manufacturing sector, based primarily but not only in the Eastern Cape, would suffer if Agoa were ended or tariffs on inputs from the US were raised so high that they cancel the impacts of the trade benefits.
6 & 7. Aid from the US to South Africa is small, as charts 6 and 7 show. With political will, South Africa should be able to replace the funds it receives largely in basic health aid and the US Aids drug programme, Pepfar (the President's Emergency Plan for Aids Relief).
8. One of the more important relationships to protect, is that with US businesses in South Africa, as charts 8-10 show. If relations with the US are not improved, it will become increasingly difficult for US companies to do business or invest.
9. The American Chamber of Commerce in a 2021 survey confirmed that at least 662 US companies were active in SA, employing more than 220,000 people in often high-value jobs. 'The US remains a critical international business partner for South Africa. The US is also South Africa's fourth-largest foreign direct investment (FDI) source.'
The survey found that on average, companies spent more than R1-million on skills development and R50-million at the top end annually. While trading conditions were challenging (the survey occurred during Covid), they remained resilient investors.
10. It's not easy doing business in SA, and the geopolitical shift in the relationship since Trump took office has made it even harder. While the risk to a reliable energy supply has decreased, crime is still high, and growth is low. Access to capital is slightly more manageable, while most businesses surveyed said access to land was not an insurmountable challenge. DM
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Mail & Guardian
an hour ago
- Mail & Guardian
Environment minister reflects on his – and the GNU's – first year in office
Minister Dion George. (Photo: Environmentza/X) When George, who was sworn into office on 3 July under the coalition President Cyril Ramaphosa put together after his ANC lost its outright parliament majority — said serving in this government 'has required all of us to work collaboratively – sometimes across vastly different perspectives — toward a common goal: delivering real outcomes for the people of South Africa'. In a media briefing to assess how his department has fared over the past year, George said the GNU has created a situation where departments are increasingly working across silos, 'where ideas are strengthened through debate and collective intelligence', and where the urgency of service delivery is matched by a 'shared will to get things done'. This week analysts George said his department had approached its work 'with a recognition that our environmental mandate is not separate from the economic one, or the social one. They are deeply interconnected.' Protecting natural resources, wildlife Among George's 'big six' priority areas is protecting natural resources and wildlife. Here, he cited his department's significant achievement regarding the protection of the critically endangered 'After learning about the sharp population declines and the human impacts causing them, I called for open, lawyer-free discussions that brought together conservation organisations like BirdLife South Africa and Sanccob [Southern African Foundation for the Conservation of Coastal Birds, industry leaders in the fishing sector and our departmental experts,' he said. This collaborative approach led to a court-ordered agreement to implement island closures around key breeding colonies. 'We amended the small pelagic fishery permit conditions to enforce these closures, ensuring sustainable fishing near vital penguin habitats,' he said. These changes were implemented almost immediately. His department is also tackling the harm caused by bunkering in Algoa Bay, near St Croix Island, once home to the largest African penguin colony in the world. Ship-to-ship refuelling has caused oil spills and underwater noise pollution. After a A coordinated approach has led to prosecutions and a continued decline in rhino poaching incidents, with George noting his department's attention is also turning to species such as 'The lives of these animals are not commodities. They are a vital part of our ecological and cultural identity,' he said. George said his department's efforts were showing that jobs can be created, new industries stimulated and growth unlocked, 'while caring for the planet'. He noted that in the fourth quarter of last year, the agriculture, forestry and fishing sectors recorded a 'remarkable' 17.2% growth, contributing two-thirds of the total GDP growth for that quarter. In the first quarter of this year, these sectors grew by 15.8%. 'These are not just numbers,' he said. 'They reflect thousands of jobs and livelihoods sustained. We increased the number of fish species available to The department's harbour revitalisation programme has created more than 2 300 work opportunities while through expanded support for sustainable aquaculture, 'we're seeing green technology spark new enterprises along our coasts'. George said the recent floods in KwaZulu-Natal and Mthatha in the Eastern Cape are only the latest signs that the time for talk regarding climate change is over. This is why the department finalised the The department secured George said these were not blanket waivers. 'Each exemption comes with firm conditions, including health interventions for affected communities, real-time emissions monitoring, and a firm commitment to transition to cleaner energy sources. We are holding polluters accountable.' The department is working with the presidency and the department of mineral resources and energy to develop a competitive power market, 'bringing independent power producers into the fold. The goal is clear: to deliver both energy security and environmental sustainability.' South Africa has contributed to international environmental governance, and continues to lead. George said it played a major role in negotiating the At the last climate summit in Baku, South Africa 'brokered a deal that balanced the need for ambitious climate action with the reality of our economic conditions', he said, adding that this agreement unlocked green investment for local projects that will support South Africa's just energy transition. 'And in our G20 Presidency year, we are hosting major environment and climate sustainability meetings, positioning South Africa as a leader on the African continent and beyond. These engagements not only strengthen our global voice but also attract investment and expertise.' George said another of his key focus areas has been making his department's systems more efficient, transparent and responsive. It had launched the regulatory efficiency strategy for environmental turbocharge, a set of reforms to speed up approvals for energy and infrastructure projects, 'while still protecting the environment'. His department had identified 11 renewable energy development zones where significantly simplified environmental impact assessments had reduced approval times from 300 days to 147. 'For lower sensitivity areas, we've introduced fast-tracked authorisations that can be processed in around 70 days,' the minister said. The new national web-based environmental screening tool is 'already helping developers identify low-impact sites for projects, streamlining planning and protecting biodiversity'. Since his appointment, George has finalised 162 environmental appeals, '106 of them since our 100-day feedback session', which is a 'testament to our commitment to fairness, transparency and turnaround times'. Although the department is operating in a constrained fiscal environment, it has launched a departmental spending review and implemented firm cost-containment measures. 'But, more importantly, we have begun thinking creatively about revenue generation,' he said. 'Each branch of our department is tasked with identifying savings and new funding streams.' This includes sourcing international donor support for enforcement and anti-poaching, innovative financing mechanisms for green projects and working with the treasury on sustainable budget models. The minister said the South African Forestry Company or Safcol, SANParks and the South African Weather Service are receiving strategic attention to address governance weaknesses and boost their effectiveness. 'We also celebrated the achievement of a clean audit at iSimangaliso Wetland Park — a symbol of what good governance can look like across our sector,' while flagship projects to elevate the country's environmental brand, improve delivery and stimulate economic opportunity have been initiated. George said the department is finalising the national carbon credits and biodiversity offsets framework, which will allow companies to 'offset emissions responsibly', while directing funds into conservation and community development.
The Citizen
2 hours ago
- The Citizen
SA can't go rogue any longer
SA needs to forsake revolutionary affiliations and reset its relations with the Western democracies. South Africa's solidarity with a ragbag of international terror organisations and rogue states in the Middle East is not returning the benefits the ANC hoped for. Instead of this alliance of outlaws being the next big thing in geopolitics, it's imploding. Over the past 20 months, the Iranian orchestrated 'axis of resistance' – Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Assad regime in Syria and the Houthi in Yemen – that for decades kept the region ablaze in pursuit of wiping Israel from the face of the earth, has been virtually obliterated. Now it is Iran's turn. Over the course of just a week, Israel has reduced Iran's feared military, terror and repressive apparatus to ruins. The Jewish state has control of Iranian skies, has subverted the banking system and has been so successful at assassinating Iran's military and nuclear leadership elite that cadre promotion, rather than being coveted, is now a death sentence. The regime held a single negotiating card. Its most important nuclear enrichment plant, at the mountain redoubt of Fordow, appeared untouchable. That was literally trumped when the US president on Saturday dropped bunker-busting bombs on three Iranian nuclear installations. ALSO READ: US joins Israel-Iran conflict with overnight bombing campaign It's a dangerous escalation. But, then again, Trump has never seen a bandwagon that he doesn't yearn to take charge of. Following Trump's decision, the latest Middle East developments will worsen SA's already fraught diplomatic relationship with the US. When President Cyril Ramaphosa attended the G7 summit in Canada, the meeting he had announced with Trump did not materialise. Whether this was a calculated snub by Trump or, as the SA delegation insists, simply because of his early departure to deal with the conflict in Iran, remains to be seen. It is nevertheless curious that not a word was exchanged between the two men, especially given the expectations raised by what Ramaphosa had hailed as a triumphant visit to the White House. ALSO READ: Did the US strikes succeed, and how will Iran respond? The G7 summit shows how fringe our Middle East foreign policy has become. In spite of waning support by some member countries for Israel's actions in Gaza, especially from some EU countries, the summit's position on the Israel-Iran conflict was remarkably unambiguous. 'Israel,' the G7 statement read, 'has the right to defend itself and we reiterate our support for the security of Israel. Iran is the principal source of regional instability and terror and it must never be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon.' This is at odds with SA's stance. It is with Iran itself that SA has developed the warmest relationship. SA facilitated Iran's entry into Brics. There have been inter-ministerial engagements to strengthen political, economic and cultural cooperation. They worked together on SA's International Court of Justice case accusing Israel of genocide and there are claims, as yet unproven, that Iran rewarded the ANC by bailing it out with a few hundred million rands when the party almost went bankrupt last year. All this put SA on a conflict course with the US. SA's response to Trump's order cutting off aid has been to fixate on concerns regarding land seizures and race-based discrimination. It has ignored US displeasure over 'egregious actions' in the international arena. As the order puts it, 'South Africa has taken aggressive positions towards the United States and its allies, including accusing Israel, not Hamas, of genocide.' The ANC has been unwilling to address these issues. Serendipitously for SA's long-term interests, the linchpin around which the 'axis of resistance' turned is on course to being neutralised by Israel. This will reshape the Middle East and afford SA an opportunity the ANC must seize – forsake revolutionary affiliations and reset relations with the Western democracies. NOW READ: Apartheid then, apartheid now: Israel's aggression is no different
IOL News
2 hours ago
- IOL News
ANC KZN leaders criticise councillors over municipal failures
KwaZulu Natal ANC task team convener Jeff Radebe speaking at the ANC KZN Alliance Local Government and Service Delivery Summit held in Coastlands Hotel on Durban's South Beach on Sunday. Image: Doctor Ngcobo / Independent Newspapers The ANC leadership in KwaZulu-Natal has read the riot act to councillors regarding the state of municipalities in the province, warning that elected officials must take their oversight responsibilities seriously. Going forward, they will be held accountable for governance failures in councils, the leadership warned. ANC convener Jeff Radebe called on councillors to be well-informed about council matters. He stated that active participation is vital for transparency, efficient service delivery, and curbing corruption and mismanagement at the local level. Radebe made these remarks while delivering his address at the Alliance Local Government and Service Delivery Summit this weekend. 'The ANC must take stock of the state of governance in our municipal councils. The 2026 municipal elections are upon us. We have so little time and so much work to do,' Radebe said. 'We gather at a time when our municipalities are at a crossroads. Progress is evident, yes, but so too are the challenges that will test our collective resolve. As leadership, we share the responsibility of turning this situation around,' he continued. He detailed some of the challenges, noting that capital expenditure stood at R4.8 billion (31.9%) lower than the 50% target. Conditional grants to municipalities totalled R8.2 billion, with only R3.6 billion (36.7%) spent. The critical Municipal Infrastructure Grant of R3.6 billion had only been spent by 39.7%, while the Water Services Infrastructure Grant of R1.1 billion had only been spent by 44.1%. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ 'These inordinate delays have robbed our people of essential services. This province is crying out for much-needed municipal infrastructure and water provision. These statistics are shocking. This is a sorry tale,' he continued. 'Urgent intervention is required in debt management, budget accuracy, and compliance with financial reporting requirements. Let us raise the critical oversight and monitoring responsibilities of Exco members and councils. Exco councillors are part of the political executive and are responsible for policy implementation and oversight of specific portfolios, similar to Ministers and MECs. 'Each Exco councillor oversees a specific department and is individually responsible for monitoring departmental performance and ensuring alignment with the Integrated Development Plan and Budget,' said Radebe. He emphasised that councillors are responsible for monitoring service delivery, ensuring that services are delivered efficiently and effectively in line with municipal policies. Mayors and councils must report regularly on departmental performance and intervene when targets are not met, he said. Councillors must take immediate action on remedial measures once they identify problems in service delivery or maladministration, Radebe stated emphasising that they represented the broader public and act as a bridge between communities and the municipality. 'Every ANC cadre who serves as a councillor must engage with residents to report service delivery issues. You must facilitate community meetings, report back, and channel community concerns into council processes through your ANC Caucus. You must ensure that these concerns are addressed by the municipality in which you serve,' he added.
