3 takeaways from the NBC News Decision Desk poll: From the Politics Desk
Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team's latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
In today's edition, Scott Bland breaks down the key findings from the new NBC News Decision Desk poll. Plus, we have the latest updates from the Israel-Iran conflict and the Minnesota shooting.
— Adam Wollner
3 takeaways from our new poll
By Scott Bland
The new NBC News Decision Desk Poll powered by SurveyMonkey out this weekend painted a vivid picture of where Donald Trump's presidency stands right now — and where it's going in the near future. Here are three takeaways from the numbers.
There's a reason why the White House wants to focus on immigration, though it's still a divisive issue. Trump's overall approval rating among U.S. adults stands at 45% approve, 55% disapprove — the same as in April. The survey also tested views of how Trump is handling a number of issues, with negative verdicts on all except immigration and border security. (The poll was mostly conducted before Trump deployed the National Guard and Marines in Los Angeles in response to protests over ICE raids there.)
But while immigration is where Trump's standing is strongest, the public is still split over his handling of the issue: 51% approve, 49% disapprove. And other polling has shown big variations in those numbers when people are asked specifics about immigration, the border and deportations.
A Republican divide over priorities in the 'big, beautiful bill.' When we broke down one question on Trump's legislative agenda by partisan affiliation, one practically even split stood out: 40% of Republicans said their most important priority in the massive domestic policy bill is reducing national debt, while 39% said continuing and expanding Trump's tax cuts was most important.
That mirrors the argument happening among a handful of Republican senators right now that could be critical for how the final bill comes together.
Both parties get bad grades on honesty. Americans, especially independents, have a dim view of politicians' honesty right now. And the ratings aren't particularly great even when people are considering their own party, either. It's one big reason why we're seeing political instability, division, anti-incumbent sentiment and a thirst for outsiders or new voices not just in the U.S. but in elections around the world. And that's a key factor to keep in mind as we approach primaries in 2026 — and 2028.
How Trump went from opposing Israel's strikes on Iran to reluctant support
By Courtney Kube, Gordon Lubold, Carol E. Lee and Katherine Doyle
President Donald Trump had opposed Israeli military action against Iran, favoring negotiations over bombing. But in the days before the strikes began, he became convinced that Israel's heightened anxiety over Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities was warranted.
After a pivotal briefing from the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Air Force Gen. Dan Caine, on Israel's plans and U.S. options for supporting its operation, he gave tacit approval to Israel to have at it and decided to provide limited U.S. backing.
When Caine briefed him on June 8, Trump was increasingly frustrated with Iran for not responding to the latest proposal for a nuclear deal. He still remained hopeful that his Middle East peace negotiator, Steve Witkoff, who had been scheduled to conduct another round of peace talks in the region Sunday, could soon get an agreement over the line.
Trump was also facing private pressure from longtime allies who advocate more isolationist policies and wanted him to stop Israel from taking military action or at least withhold U.S. support for any such operation.
This account of Trump's thinking leading up to the Israeli operation is based on interviews with five current U.S. officials and two Middle Eastern officials, as well as two people with knowledge of the deliberations, two former U.S officials familiar with the deliberations and a Trump ally.
Suspect who terrorized Minnesota's political leaders after deadly shooting has been arrested
By Dennis Romero
The suspect wanted in the slaying of a Minnesota lawmaker and her husband, as well as in the shooting of a state senator and his wife, was found Sunday night armed and crawling in a field in a sparsely populated stretch of Minnesota, authorities said.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz announced Vance Boelter's capture at a news conference after saying Saturday that the suspect's alleged crimes included a 'politically motivated assassination.' Despite being armed, authorities said, Boelter was taken into custody without incident, and no injuries were reported.
'After a two-day manhunt, two sleepless nights, law enforcement have apprehended' the alleged shooter, Walz said.
'This cannot be the norm. It cannot be the way that we deal with our political differences,' he added.
Boelter is in custody and is now facing state and federal charges in connection with the Saturday slaying of Democratic Minnesota state Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband, Mark, and the shooting of state Sen. John Hoffman and his wife, Yvette Hoffman, authorities said.
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Sky News
38 minutes ago
- Sky News
Like George W Bush did in Iraq, if Israel breaks Iran it will end up owning the chaos that could ensue
Israelis are good at tactics, poor at strategic vision, it has been observed. Their campaign against Iran may be a case in point. Short termism is understandable in a region that is so unpredictable. Why make elaborate plans if they are generally undone by unexpected events? It is a mindset that is familiar to anyone who has lived or worked there. And it informs policy-making. The Israeli offensive in Gaza is no exception. The Israeli government has never been clear how it will end or what happens the day after that in what remains of the coastal strip. Pressed privately, even senior advisers will admit they simply do not know. It may seem unfair to call a military operation against Iran that literally took decades of planning short-termist or purely tactical. There was clearly a strategy of astonishing sophistication behind a devastating campaign that has dismantled so much of the enemy's capability. 3:49 But is there a strategic vision beyond that? That is what worries Israel's allies. It's not as if we've not been here before, time and time again. From Libya to Afghanistan and all points in between we have seen the chaos and carnage that follows governments being changed. Hundreds of thousands have died. Vast swathes of territory remain mired in turmoil or instability. Which is where a famous warning sign to American shoppers in the 80s and 90s comes in. Ahead of the disastrous invasion that would tear Iraq apart, America's defence secretary, Colin Powell, is said to have warned US president George W Bush of the "Pottery Barn rule". The Pottery Barn was an American furnishings store. Signs among its wares told clumsy customers: "You break it, you own it." 0:36 Bush did not listen to Powell hard enough. His administration would end up breaking Iraq and owning the aftermath in a bloody debacle lasting years. Israel is not invading Iran, but it is bombing it back to the 80s, or even the 70s, because it is calling for the fall of the government that came to power at the end of that decade. Iran's leadership is proving resilient so far but we are just a week in. It is a country of 90 million, already riven with social and political discontent. Its system of government is based on factional competition, in which paranoia, suspicion and intense rivalries are the order of the day. After half a century of authoritarian theocratic rule there are no opposition groups ready to replace the ayatollahs. There may be a powerful sense of social cohesion and a patriotic resentment of outside interference, for plenty of good historic reasons. But if that is not enough to keep the country together then chaos could ensue. One of the biggest and most consequential nations in the region could descend into violent instability. That will have been on Israel's watch. If it breaks Iran it will own it even more than America owned the disaster in Iraq. Iran and Israel are, after all, in the same neighbourhood. Has Israel thought through the consequences? What is the strategic vision beyond victory? And if America joins in, as Donald Trump is threatening, is it prepared to share that legacy?
Sky News
38 minutes ago
- Sky News
Israel-Iran live: Tehran calls Geneva proposals 'unrealistic' - as Israel launches strikes in southwestern Iran
An Iranian official says European nuclear proposals set out in Geneva are "unrealistic". Meanwhile, the Israeli military has launched new strikes in southwestern Iran. Listen to our Trump 100 podcast as you scroll.
Telegraph
38 minutes ago
- Telegraph
‘Iranian spy' arrested in Cyprus for ‘plotting terror attack on British base'
A suspected Iranian spy has been arrested near an RAF base in Cyprus following intelligence suggesting he was planning a terrorist attack. The man, who is of Azerbaijani descent, is alleged to have links to Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), according to reports. Cypriot authorities confirmed on Saturday that they had arrested the unidentified man on suspicion of espionage and terror-related offences. He allegedly had Britain's Akrotiri base, home to the RAF's Typhoons, and Cyprus's own Andreas Papandreou air base under surveillance since mid-April, ANT1 news portal reported. The country's counter-terrorism unit received information from a foreign intelligence service that he was planning an immediate terrorist attack, Israeli outlet Channel 12 reports. He was arrested in the Zakaki suburb of the coastal city of Limassol, just six miles from the British base. The suspected spy was seen walking near RAF Akrotiri almost daily, carrying a camera with a magnifying lens and three mobile phones, Phileleftheros, Cyprus's largest newspaper, reported. He is said to have been taking photos with long lens cameras as well as phones, using other electronic devices, as well as writing notes. The individual appeared before a district court in a closed hearing on Saturday and has been given an eight-day detention order pending further investigation. No further details are being issued, police said, citing national security. The Akrotiri base is the UK's largest military installation outside Britain and plays a key role in supporting operations across the Middle East. It hosts Eurofighter Typhoons, which have been used in strikes against the Islamic State and Yemen's Houthis, as well as Voyager tanker aircraft and Shadow intelligence aircraft. Terror-related offences are extremely rare in Cyprus, an island of 1.3 million, which is strategically positioned between Europe, the Middle East and North Africa. In recent days, it has become a major transit hub for entry and exit into the Middle East following the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, which erupted on June 13. The IRGC functions as a parallel military in Iran that answers directly to the Islamic Republic's rulers, oversees the country's ballistic missile and nuclear programmes and is responsible for overseas terror plots. Believed to have over a quarter of a million personnel, it is one of the most powerful paramilitary organisations in the Middle East. Renewed calls to proscribe the IRGC Last month, Dan Jarvis, the security minister, told Parliament that police and MI5 have responded to 20 Iran-linked plots since 2022, including assassination and abduction attempts. In May, the Israeli embassy in the UK became the target of an alleged Iranian terror plot. Five men, including four Iranian nationals, were arrested at locations across England in what the Home Secretary described as one of the biggest counter-terror operations in recent years. The suspected terror cell is believed to have been hours away from unleashing the attack on the embassy building in west London when the men were arrested. Sir Keir Starmer faced renewed calls from his backbenchers on Saturday to proscribe the IRGC as a terror organisation following the Government's swift move to proscribe Palestinian Action after its activist damaged two RAF planes on Friday. Labour called for the IRGC to be proscribed in opposition, but has yet to do so almost a year on. Iran was the first foreign power to be listed on the top level of the foreign influence registration scheme, earlier this year, aimed at protecting the UK from malign foreign influence.
