Commentary: Iran is breaking Israel's expensive air defences with cheap drones
SINGAPORE: After Israel's strikes involving more than 200 jets last Friday (Jun 13), Iran responded by launching about 100 drones. Drones launched from Iran can take up to nine hours to reach targets in Israel and most were intercepted by Israeli air defences.
Some observers described this initial Iranian response as 'underwhelming'. However, such an assessment holds only if the drone attack is viewed in isolation, without considering the missile barrage launched just hours later.
Iran's initial drone campaign was likely not intended to deliver immediate harm or damage against Israel. Israel's multi-layered air defence systems are sophisticated and each system – including Iron Dome, David's Sling and the Arrow system – is designed to counter different types of aerial threats.
Rather, its objective was to saturate Israel's air defences and to pave the way for more damaging follow-on missile strikes.
This type of attack closely mirrors Russia's drone-and-missile playbook in Ukraine.
SATURATE AIR DEFENCES, CREATE FEAR
While Ukraine has shown its resourcefulness in using drones, Russia's tactics have also evolved in recent months. Prior to September 2024, the average number of weekly drone launches was around 140, but over the past six months, this figure has peaked at about 1,100 per week.
On Tuesday, Russia reportedly launched 440 drones and 32 missiles, in one of the deadliest strikes on Kyiv since Russia invaded its neighbour in February 2022.
By combining drones with more sophisticated ballistic and cruise missiles, Russia has been able to test the readiness of Ukraine's air defence network. More importantly, this forces Ukraine to spend limited defence resources to intercept them, gradually eroding Ukrainian defensive capacity.
Iran appears to be adopting the same drone-and-missile strikes not only to saturate air defences, but also bring terror to the civilian population.
Despite Israel's advanced air defence systems and US support, Iranian drones and missiles still managed to breach them, inflicting damage on civilian infrastructure and causing civilian casualties.
Civilians emerging from shelters after Iranian retaliatory attacks were reportedly shocked, with some asking how long the Iranian attacks would continue. There's undoubtedly a psychological element to it too: Air raid sirens blare several times a day, and parts of the map are awash in red on alert apps.
DRONE AND MISSILE ATTACKS WILL CONTINUE
How long can Iran sustain a saturation campaign based on sheer numbers?
Iran is likely to retain the capacity to continue such tactics. It has reportedly fired over 400 missiles and over 1,000 drones so far. Dan Caldwell, a former senior adviser to US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, suggested on X that the number of Iranian missiles capable of hitting Israel was closer to 2,000, as well as thousands of drones.
In January, Iran's army reportedly received a delivery of 1,000 domestically produced drones, with a range of over 2,000km. However, Iran will likely deploy these drone swarms more strategically (unlike Russia, which has launched continuous drone campaigns against Ukraine without a single uninterrupted three-day pause).
Critical energy infrastructure would be a strategic target, as Russia has done in Ukraine. Russia consistently targeted Ukraine's energy infrastructure during the winter of 2022-2023, in order to disrupt essential heating and water supplies to the civilian population.
Following the initial drone and missile strikes, Iran further retaliated by targeting the oil refinery in Haifa Bay. The strike caused severe damage to the facility's central power plant and resulted in a suspension of operations.
Israel, anticipating the possibility of another attack on its oil refineries, has already pre-emptively suspended operations at Chevron's offshore Leviathan natural gas field.
With Israel having targeted four energy-related assets in the current conflict (the Shahran fuel terminal, the Tehran Oil Refinery in southern Tehran's Shahr Rey district, the Phase 14 processing facility of the South Pars gas field, and the Fajr-e-Jam natural gas processing plant), Iran could deploy a drone-and-missile strike against another energy infrastructure in the coming days.
SHIFTING CALCULUS ON THE COST OF WAR
Next, there is the question of how long Israel can withstand the sustained drone-and-missile strikes.
At present, apart from Israeli air defence systems, American naval destroyers and ground-based missile batteries are helping Israel to defend itself against the Iranian retaliation.
But interceptor missiles often cost hundreds of thousands of dollars, while drones cost only between US$20,000 to US$50,000.
Iran could shift the war cost calculus by forcing Israel and its backers to expend expensive munitions on cheap, mass-produced drone threats.
If the Israel-Iran war drags on, it will be worth watching whether key voices within US President Donald Trump's Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement can prevail.
Conservative commentator Tucker Carlson suggested that the US should 'drop Israel. Let them fight their own wars.' Republican lawmaker Marjorie Taylor Greene posted on X that 'Anyone slobbering for the US to become fully involved in the Israel/Iran war is not America First/MAGA.'
While US is unlikely to withdraw its assistance to Israel, it could add pressure on the Trump administration to urge Israel to swiftly end its offensive (assuming that US is not joining the war).
LESSONS FOR COUNTRIES
As countries watch how the events in Israel and Iran unfold, the lessons are clear for defence policymakers.
A new trend has emerged from both the Russian-Ukraine and Israel-Iran wars: Saturating the skies with low-cost, expendable drones can overwhelm even the most advanced defence systems.
Such a strategy can not only strain defensive capabilities, but also serve to terrorise civilian populations (notwithstanding that acts or threats of violence with the intent to spread terror among the civilian population is prohibited under the laws of war).
So, air defence has become a battle of resource management. Warring parties employing drone-and-missile tactics are shifting the cost calculus in their favour, forcing the enemy to expend limited, expensive munitions on cheap aerial threats.
There may be difficult choices about which aerial threats to intercept and which to let through. Defenders may be forced to accept that it is both impossible and impractical to counter every incoming aerial threat. A risk-based approach may become necessary – prioritising the protection of critical infrastructure, such as power plants and energy grids, while deliberately leaving lower-priority infrastructure less protected.
For civilians living in areas deemed less critical, this could mean enduring the constant fear and uncertainty that their homes and residential areas may receive limited protection in an era of aerial warfare defined by sheer volume and the willingness to deploy cheap systems to break expensive air defences.
So, defence policymakers need to rethink air defences in order to counter the risks of drones saturating the skies.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
AsiaOne
an hour ago
- AsiaOne
How Trump, a self-proclaimed 'peacemaker', embraced Israel's campaign against Iran, World News
WASHINGTON — Roughly one month ago, from the stage at an investment forum in Saudi Arabia, US President Donald Trump issued a warning to Iran that would prove prophetic. "We'll never allow America and its allies to be threatened with terrorism or nuclear attack," Trump told the crowd, sending a message to the leadership in Tehran. "The time is right now for them to choose. Right now. We don't have a lot of time to wait. Things are happening at a very fast pace." That May 13 ultimatum received little attention at the time. But behind the scenes, the president already knew an attack on Iran could be imminent — and that there might be little he could do to stop it, according to two US officials. By mid-May, the Pentagon had begun drawing up detailed contingency plans to aid Israel if it followed through on its long-held ambition to strike Iran's nuclear programme, the officials said. And the US had already diverted thousands of defencive weapons away from war-torn Ukraine toward the Middle East in preparation for potential conflict, according to a Western source familiar with the matter and a Ukrainian source. The Pentagon declined to comment for this story. This account of the weeks and days leading up to Trump's decision to throw his support behind Israel's bombing campaign is based on interviews with over a dozen administration officials, foreign diplomats and Trump confidantes, most of whom spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations. The picture that emerges is that of a long, secretive preparation process and a president who for weeks found himself torn between diplomacy and supporting military action — and was ultimately persuaded in part by an ally whose actions he did not fully control. While Trump has long described himself as a peacemaker — dispatching Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff to the region several times to try to seal a diplomatic accord — he had several trusted political allies pushing him to back an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. [[nid:719255]] And US intelligence had indicated a unilateral Israeli strike was possible, even likely, even if Trump wanted to wait, according to two US officials. While it is unclear if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or Trump's more hawkish allies ever got him to a "yes" to Israel's plans, by the days leading up the strike he was at least not a "no," according to two senior US officials and a senior Israeli source. That stance, people familiar with the dynamics said, helped tip Israel into action. Seven days into the Israel-Iran conflict, Trump is left with a dilemma, said Aaron David Miller, a veteran diplomat who has advised six secretaries of state on Middle East policy. He can try again to pursue a diplomatic resolution with Iran, allow Iran and Israel "to fight it out," or he can enter the war with US airstrikes on the deeply buried Fordow enrichment plant, a step that would have unknown consequences for the region. Trump "let it (the Israeli attack) happen," said Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace policy institute. "He got on the tiger and he's riding it." The White House on Thursday said that Trump will make a decision on whether the US will get involved in the conflict in the next two weeks. The White House, the Israeli prime minister's office and Iran's delegation to the United Nations did not respond to a request for comment. Tehran has consistently said its nuclear programme is designed for peaceful purposes only, a conclusion Washington has rejected. The coming storm One of the first hints that Trump might sign off on an Israeli bombing campaign came in April. [[nid:719299]] During a closed-door meeting on April 17, Saudi Arabia's defence minister delivered a blunt message to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian: Take Trump's offer to negotiate an agreement seriously because it presents a way to avoid the risk of war with Israel. Reuters could not determine whether the message was sent at Washington's behest, nor whether Iran's leaders took that message seriously. With hindsight, they should have. The Israel Defence Forces and the head of US Central Command, General Michael "Erik" Kurilla, were discussing detailed intelligence about Iran's missile buildup and nuclear programme and steps that could be required to defend US troops and Israel itself in any conflict with Iran, according to a US official and senior Israeli official. Meanwhile, the US was funnelling weapons to Israel that would be useful for an air war with Iran. In one instance in early May, a large shipment of defencive missiles originally meant for Ukraine was diverted to Israel instead, according to the Western source and the Ukrainian source. The diverted shipment caused consternation in Kyiv and sparked continued fears that additional weapons needed to defend against Moscow will instead be used to defend US interests elsewhere, the Ukrainian source said. In the opening months of Trump's term, Israel had already proposed to Washington a series of options to attack Iran's facilities, according to sources. While Trump had rebuffed those ideas, saying he preferred diplomacy for the time being, several people close to him said he was never dead-set against using military force against Iran. [[nid:719288]] He had done so before. In 2020, despite a foreign policy during his first term that was otherwise marked by restraint, Trump ordered a drone strike that killed major general Qassem Soleimani, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' division responsible for its international operations. The Iranian government has since sought to murder Trump in revenge, US prosecutors have said, an allegation Tehran denies. Behind the scenes, Trump had been pulled in multiple directions on the Iran issue since before he even took office. On one side, many supporters - including conservative media personality Tucker Carlson - and administration officials saw Trump's Make America Great Again movement as an antidote to decades of foreign wars that cost thousands of American lives without significantly advancing American interests. On the other, several close Trump allies - from conservative commentator Mark Levin to Republican Senator Lindsey Graham - were portraying a nuclear Iran as an existential threat that must be removed at any cost. Trump himself took pride in being a broker of peace. "My proudest legacy," he said during his inauguration address, "will be that of a peacemaker and unifier." "It's a tango" Ultimately, no US official, Trump confidante or diplomat Reuters talked to identified an epiphany that tipped the scales for the president. One senior administration official said that after months of sitting on the fence a lack of diplomatic progress, a push from the Israelis and appeals by hawkish allies likely wore him down. Trump aides and allies have noted that Israel's attack unfolded just after the expiry of a 60-day deadline the Trump administration had set for a diplomatic breakthrough with Iran. The senior US official said another dynamic was at play: As US intelligence consistently showed Israel might go ahead with an attack with or without US support, the administration could look caught off guard if they did not get behind it. Worse, it could appear that the US was opposing a longtime ally. Although Trump had appeared to some to snub Netanyahu as he pushed for a peaceful solution to the crisis, privately, Israel understood that Washington would stand by it, said a separate official. By the time Trump talked to Netanyahu on Monday, June 9 — one of many phone calls in recent days — his stance was one of tacit, if not explicit approval, according to one US and one Israeli official. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump had said he would like more time to see diplomacy play out. But the US official said that he did not explicitly veto Israel's plans. By Wednesday, June 11, it was clear to Washington that Israel's plans were a go. That day, Reuters reported that the US was preparing a partial evacuation of its Iraqi embassy amid fears of reprisals from Iran following an imminent attack. The next day, June 12, Washington sent a formal diplomatic note to several regional allies, warning them that an attack was imminent. That evening, Israel launched its overnight barrage, an attack that almost immediately escalated into an air war. Trump and some key cabinet members watched the events live from the wood-paneled "JFK room," part of the White House Situation Room. Other officials watched the events nearby. On the menu, per one official: stone crabs from a local restaurant. The initial attack appeared to be a success, with several close advisers to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei killed and key nuclear sites seriously damaged. Over the weekend, the Israelis considered killing Khamenei himself, but were waved off by Trump, according to two US officials. Almost immediately, a political civil war erupted in Trump's Republican Party, with several high-profile conservatives, including members of Congress, accusing his administration of fanning the flames of war. Seven days on, the US intelligence community believes the strikes have set Iran's nuclear ambitions back by only months, according to a source familiar with US intelligence reports, confirming a CNN report. A significant blow to Iran's nuclear ambitions, most analysts say, will require dropping bunker-busting bombs on the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, the crown jewel of Iran's nuclear programme. Only the US has that capability. Trump has said he is considering such a strike, which would represent a major escalation for the United States. As of Thursday, his intentions were still unclear. [[nid:719286]]
CNA
an hour ago
- CNA
Israel-Iran air war enters second week as Europe pushes diplomacy
TEL AVIV: Israel and Iran's air war entered a second week on Friday (Jun 20) and European officials sought to draw Tehran back to the negotiating table after President Donald Trump said any decision on potential US involvement would be made within two weeks. Israel began attacking Iran last Friday, saying it aimed to prevent its longtime enemy from developing nuclear weapons. Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes on Israel. It says its nuclear programme is peaceful. Israeli air attacks have killed 639 people in Iran, said the Human Rights Activists News Agency. Those killed include the military's top echelon and nuclear scientists. Israel has said at least two dozen Israeli civilians have died in Iranian missile attacks. Reuters could not independently verify the death toll from either side. Israel has targeted nuclear sites and missile capabilities, but also has sought to shatter the government of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to Western and regional officials. "Are we targeting the downfall of the regime? That may be a result, but it's up to the Iranian people to rise for their freedom," Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday. Iran has said it is targeting military and defence-related sites in Israel, but it has also hit a hospital and other civilian sites. Israel accused Iran on Thursday of deliberately targeting civilians through the use of cluster munitions, which disperse small bombs over a wide area. Iran's mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment. With neither country backing down, the foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany, along with the European Union foreign policy chief, were due to meet in Geneva with Iran's foreign minister to try to de-escalate the conflict on Friday. "Now is the time to put a stop to the grave scenes in the Middle East and prevent a regional escalation that would benefit no one," said British Foreign Minister David Lammy ahead of their joint meeting with Abbas Araqchi, Iran's foreign minister. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping both condemned Israel and agreed that de-escalation is needed, the Kremlin said on Thursday. The role of the United States, meanwhile, remained uncertain. On Thursday in Washington, Lammy met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump's special envoy to the region, Steve Witkoff, and said they discussed a possible deal. Witkoff has spoken with Araqchi several times since last week, sources say. Trump, meanwhile, has alternated between threatening Tehran and urging it to resume nuclear talks that were suspended over the conflict. Trump has mused about striking Iran, possibly with a "bunker buster" bomb that could destroy nuclear sites built deep underground. The White House said on Thursday Trump would decide in the next two weeks whether to get involved in the war. That may not be a firm deadline. Trump has commonly used "two weeks" as a time frame for making decisions and has allowed other economic and diplomatic deadlines to slide. With the Islamic Republic facing one of its greatest external threats since the 1979 revolution, any direct challenge to its 46-year-long rule would likely require some form of popular uprising. But activists involved in previous bouts of protest say they are unwilling to unleash mass unrest, even against a system they hate, with their nation under attack. "How are people supposed to pour into the streets? In such horrifying circumstances, people are solely focused on saving themselves, their families, their compatriots, and even their pets," said Atena Daemi, a prominent activist who spent six years in prison before leaving Iran.
CNA
4 hours ago
- CNA
UK's Lammy to meet European counterparts in Geneva to hold nuclear talks with Iran
LONDON: British foreign minister David Lammy will head to Geneva on Friday for nuclear talks with Iran and European counterparts, racing to press for a diplomatic solution over Tehran's nuclear programme, his office said on Thursday (Jun 19). Israel and Iran have been in a spiralling air war since last week after Israel launched military strikes on Iran, which retaliated with waves of missiles. Lammy's trip to Switzerland follows his visit to Washington, where he on Thursday met US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and White House Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff. "We are determined that Iran must never have a nuclear weapon ... A window now exists within the next two weeks to achieve a diplomatic solution," Lammy said in a statement. "Now is the time to put a stop to the grave scenes in the Middle East and prevent a regional escalation that would benefit no one." The foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany - known as the E3 - will meet with the European Union's top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, at Germany's permanent mission in Geneva before holding a joint meeting with the Iranian foreign minister, a German source previously told Reuters. Rubio discussed with Lammy the conflict between Israel and Iran, the pair agreeing that the Islamic Republic can "never develop or acquire a nuclear weapon", a spokesperson for Rubio said in a statement. Israel has said its goal is to eliminate Tehran's ability to develop a nuclear weapon. Iran denies that its nuclear programme is for military purposes. make a decision within the next two weeks whether to get involved on Israel's side.
