Tropical Storm Dalila Spaghetti Models Show Forecast Path
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
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Tropical Depression Four-E has formed in the Eastern Pacific Ocean and is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Dalila later Friday.
Most forecasts show the storm veering west, although some land impacts are expected.
Newsweek reached out to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) by email for comment.
Why It Matters
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15 and has seen a very active start. Tropical Storm Alvin kicked off the season in late May, followed by Hurricane Barbara and Tropical Storm Cosme. All three storms formed before the average first date of June 10 for a named storm in the region.
Now, the fourth named storm, which will be called Dalila, is strengthening off the southwestern coast of Mexico.
A forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows the expected path of Tropical Storm Dalila.
A forecast from the National Hurricane Center shows the expected path of Tropical Storm Dalila.
National Hurricane Center
What To Know
Most spaghetti models, or computer models illustrating potential tropical cyclone paths, show the storm veering west into the Pacific, although one shows it taking a more northerly track through Mexico, with some impacts such as heavy rain possibly stretching into the U.S. Southwest.
The NHC forecast anticipates it to take the western path out into the ocean. As of the most recent forecast, Dalila is expected to remain as a tropical storm and not strengthen into a hurricane.
On Friday morning, Tropical Depression Four-E had maximum sustained winds of 35 mph with stronger gusts.
"Strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. The system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and continue strengthening on Saturday as it moves parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico," the NHC forecast said.
AccuWeather meteorologists are anticipating 14 to 18 tropical storms and seven to 10 hurricanes for the Eastern Pacific this season. An average season produces 15 tropical storms and four hurricanes, according to AccuWeather.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting a below-normal hurricane season for the Eastern Pacific, with 12 to 18 named storms. Of those, five to 10 will likely become hurricanes, and two to five could develop into major hurricanes.
What People Are Saying
The NHC, in a forecast about the tropical depression: "Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts up to 6 inches, are possible across portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, and Colima through this weekend. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides.
"Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, and tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on Saturday. Swells generated by Tropical Depression Four-E will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions."
What Happens Next
Current forecasts show Dalila retaining tropical storm strength through Sunday night. By Monday morning, it likely will have weakened into a tropical depression.
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