Donald Trump's Odds of Winning Nobel Prize Climb
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President Donald Trump has the best odds of winning this year's Nobel Peace Prize, according to new data released by a large oddsmaker.
Why It Matters
On March 5, the Nobel Peace Prize Committee announced that 338 candidates have been nominated for this year's Nobel Peace Prize, including 244 individuals and 94 organizations—a drastic increase from the 286 nominees in 2024. Four U.S. presidents have won the Nobel Peace Prize: Theodore Roosevelt (1906), Woodrow Wilson (1919), Jimmy Carter (2002) and Barack Obama (2009).
What To Know
Trump has been nominated multiple times for the prize over the years, including by U.S. and Ukrainian lawmakers as well as members of Norwegian and Finnish parliaments—all previously crediting the first Trump administration's Abraham Accords treaty in September 2020 that normalized Middle East relations and was signed by Israel, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.
President Donald Trump arrives to address troops at the Al-Udeid air base southwest of Doha, Qatar, on May 15, 2025.
President Donald Trump arrives to address troops at the Al-Udeid air base southwest of Doha, Qatar, on May 15, 2025.
BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images
Earlier this year, weeks into Trump's second term, Republican Representative Darrell Issa of California nominated him for the prize even though nominations had closed January 31—effectively nominating the president for the 2026 prize.
Oddschecker, an online betting platform that includes more than 80 bookmakers and is licensed and regulated by the U.K. Gambling Commission, said Trump was the favorite to take home the prize this year as betting trends were unveiled for the first time.
Oddschecker spokesperson Leon Blackman told Newsweek that the market went live across its platform on Wednesday morning between 10 a.m. and noon BST, five hours ahead of EST.
Trump was listed as the favorite, garnering +650 odds (13/2) with a 13.3 percent implied probability of winning. In the 24 hours following the betting market going live on the platform, 97 percent of all bets backed Trump to win.
The president is ahead of other nominees, including WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, who sits at +700 odds (7/1) and Yulia Navalnaya, widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, whose odds are +900 (9/1).
Blackman said that those who make up the betting markets are either already nominated for the award or those whom the oddsmakers believe could be nominated down the line. Currently, Oddschecker has seen more than 1,000 bets placed on the Nobel Peace Prize market in the past day.
"The 97 percent is certainly higher than we would've expected," Blackman said. "However, with Trump being clearly the most household name on this list, it's not surprisingly to see him heavily backed.
"I am more surprised to see the odds holding out at 6/1 and not shortening over the past 24 hours."
Polymarket, an American cryptocurrency-based prediction market, as of Thursday showed Trump with an 8 percent chance of winning the prize.
The Nobel Committee does not confirm the names of nominees to the media or the candidates. The highest number of nominees, 376, occurred in 2016.
What People Are Saying
California Representative Darrell Issa spokesperson Jonathan Wilcox told Newsweek in March: "Congressman Issa is calling attention to the astonishingly effective impact that our 47th president has had in only a few short months since his election: cooling tensions, establishing dialogue and encouraging the flourishing of freedom in practically every corner of the world and on behalf of the cause of peace."
What Happens Next
Trump's efforts in Gaza to achieve peace between the Israelis and Hamas, as well as a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, could impact his Nobel candidacy in many ways between now and the announcement of the winner.
The Nobel Peace Prize laureate(s) will be announced on October 10, with an award ceremony December 10 in Oslo, Norway.
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