Strikes and diplomacy: How Trump's two-week deadline shapes US strategy on Iran
Shafaq News / As tensions escalate between Iran and Israel, US President Donald Trump initially gave a two-week deadline to decide on direct intervention against Tehran. However, he shortened the period significantly and proceeded with strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Despite the strikes, the deadline appears to remain in effect in some form, particularly after Trump announced no further action for the time being. Attention now turns to the unfolding developments and their impact on the region, especially Iraq.
In an Interview with Shafaq News Agency, Thomas Warrick, a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, clarified that the Trump's two-week deadline signals three distinct objectives:
'First, it's an opening to get diplomatic negotiations going with Tehran. Trump understands it will take time to bring Iran back to the table, but that's clearly his goal.'
Secondly, Trump appears to be allowing time for additional US military assets to reach the region, enhancing the credibility of any threat of force. Warrick cited movements such as the USS Nimitz sailing toward the Arabian Sea and recent sightings of B-2 bombers likely headed toward Guam or Diego Garcia—capable platforms for delivering bunker-busting ordnance.
The third element, Warrick noted, is political, 'He wants to show his base—and the world—that he's giving diplomacy one last chance before resorting to force. This is Trump trying to prove that any military action would only come after exhausting peaceful options.'
A Flexible Deadline, Trump-Style
When asked whether two weeks is enough to defuse the crisis, Warrick offered a nuanced perspective rooted in Trump's communication style.
'In Trump's language, 'two weeks' can mean anything. It could be three days, it could be never. There's a long history of him using this phrase ambiguously.'
He added that Trump's spokesperson, Karoline Leavitt, had delivered the deadline in the form of a direct presidential quote, implying it came straight from the Oval Office.
'It's a flexible deadline. Not too far removed from Arabic 'Inshallah' or Spanish 'mañana.' But still, this is a serious offer of diplomacy,' Warrick explained.
Military Posturing as Pressure
Trump's decision to bolster US forces in the region isn't just precautionary—it's strategic. 'Trump is all about leverage. He wants Iran to know that he's not bluffing,' Warrick said.
'The presence of aircraft carriers and bombers capable of striking hardened nuclear facilities like Fordow sends a clear message: if diplomacy fails, force is on the table.'
However, Warrick emphasized that Trump would still prefer a negotiated outcome, calling it his 'first option.'
Iran at a Crossroads
When asked about Iran's likely response, Warrick presented a stark choice facing Tehran's leadership: 'Option one: negotiate, dismantle the nuclear program, and see crippling sanctions lifted. Option two: lose the nuclear program through military strikes—and still face sanctions.'
He concluded that Iran's leaders must decide whether to preserve national dignity at great cost or accept a diplomatic deal that could ease decades of economic suffering.
'Either way, they lose the nuclear program. But only one path gives something back to the Iranian people. From that perspective, it's in their interest to take Trump's offer.'
International Political Tool?
Political analyst Ihab al-Kayyali explained that in the world of international politics, major powers often use multiple tools to pressure rivals without resorting directly to war. One such tool, he said, is the time-bound ultimatum. Trump's deadline signals a required move from Iran, with harsh consequences if unmet.
Al-Kayyali noted that the deadline was intended to pressure Iran to halt uranium enrichment, demonstrate strength to both American and global audiences, and prepare the political and media landscape for upcoming diplomatic or military steps. If Iran does not comply, the US may impose further sanctions, mobilize forces, launch limited strikes, or escalate rhetoric to rally domestic and international support.
Problem of the 'Deadline'
Iranian affairs researcher Saeed Sharoudi argued that the two-week deadline reflects Tehran's fundamental issue with Washington: the US outlines terms unilaterally and expects Iran to comply.
Speaking to Shafaq News Agency, he recalled a previous two-month deadline set by Trump that failed to produce a deal, followed by a green light to Israel to target Iranian nuclear sites.
Sharoudi noted that the same miscalculation is being repeated with the current shorter deadline. A lasting resolution, he said, is unlikely without US recognition of Iran's right to enrich uranium for its nuclear needs. Only then, he added, could a major obstacle to negotiations be removed.
He stressed that Iran's primary concern in talks—rarely acknowledged by Trump—is the lifting and non-repetition of Western sanctions and a guarantee against future attacks under any pretext.
Diplomatic Opportunity?
Political researcher Nawal al-Moussawi highlighted that the deadline followed Trump's assurances to Arab leaders, particularly Qatar, that the US would not engage militarily with Iran.
She noted, in an interview with Shafaq News, that the window allows diplomacy to take its course amid active regional and European efforts, possibly paving the way for a preliminary agreement.
Al-Moussawi also pointed to the deadline as a test of Israel's ability to sustain conflict without direct US involvement, with opinion in Washington divided over whether to join the war.
'Some view the conflict as inevitable, while others worry about its repercussions on Americans, especially given Iran's limited long-range strike capability,' she concluded.
An Either-Or Scenario
Dr. Ihsan al-Shammari, head of the Political Thinking Center and professor of strategic and international studies at the University of Baghdad, described Trump's two-week deadline as having dual tracks.
'The first is an opportunity for Iran to respond to US conditions previously rejected, aimed at preserving its regime and territorial integrity.'
Al-Shammari said this aligns with Trump's foreign policy approach toward regional stability and appears to be a response to ally requests, possibly involving mediation by Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the European troika. Accordingly, Trump allowed space for negotiations.
Simultaneously, he noted that Trump is preparing militarily along two lines: enabling Israel to dismantle Iran's capabilities and completing US military preparations within the deadline to enter the conflict if Iran does not capitulate unconditionally. 'Reports of additional US troop deployments support this,' adding that Trump has set two clear paths for Iran—negotiation or military action.
Iraq on Alert
On the potential fallout in Iraq, Al-Shammari said the country and region are in a state of anticipation. There is widespread unease about the environmental and geopolitical consequences of the attacks on nuclear sites, possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disruption to energy supplies, and the prospect of a regional war affecting several countries. Iraq, he emphasized, shares these concerns.
However, Iraq has its own complexity, he explained, with armed factions declaring their intent to join the war if the US intervenes, topples the Iranian regime, or targets Iran's Supreme Leader. As such, Iraq remains on alert.
He revealed that preemptive decisions had been made in Iraq under a pact between factions and the Coordination Framework. But this agreement, he warned, is fragile and would collapse if the US enters the war alongside Israel or targets factions in Iraq.
Al-Shammari concluded that if such a scenario unfolds, Iraq would be the hardest hit due to its fragility and role as a battleground for external agendas. He cautioned that the country could emerge from the conflict on the threshold of a new Middle East.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Shafaq News
2 hours ago
- Shafaq News
Make Iran Great Again: Trump questions Iranian regime's future amid escalating conflict
Shafaq News/ On Sunday, US President Donald Trump raised the prospect of regime change in Iran, suggesting that continued failure by the Islamic Republic to deliver national revival may justify reconsidering the policy. In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump stated, 'It's not politically correct to use the term, 'Regime Change,' but if the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn't there be a Regime change?' Trump's remarks come amid a dramatic military escalation between the United States and Iran following US airstrikes on Iran's Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear sites. Washington has described the operation as necessary to halt Iran's nuclear program, which it claims was nearing a 'point of no return' in uranium enrichment. Since returning to office, Trump has adopted an increasingly hardline stance toward Tehran, reviving maximum-pressure tactics aimed at preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. The Trump administration's approach contrasts sharply with the 2015 nuclear deal, which the US exited in 2018 during Trump's first term. That withdrawal was followed by the reimposition of sweeping economic sanctions that severely strained Iran's economy.
Shafaq News
5 hours ago
- Shafaq News
Iraq condemns deadly church bombing in Damascus
Shafaq News / Iraq's Ministry of Foreign Affairs strongly condemned the suicide bombing that targeted the Mar Elias Church in the Syrian capital Damascus on Sunday, describing the attack as a dangerous attempt to ignite sectarian violence and destabilize the region. In an official statement, the ministry expressed its 'deepest condemnation and strong denunciation of the terrorist suicide bombing that struck Mar Elias Church in Damascus, resulting in the deaths of numerous innocent civilians and injuring many others.' The ministry reaffirmed Iraq's 'firm rejection of all forms of terrorism and violence that target civilians and houses of worship,' reiterating Baghdad's steadfast support for the Syrian people in the face of such atrocities. The statement emphasized that 'attacking places of worship and religious sites is a vile effort to tear the social fabric and drag societies into sectarian conflict.' The ministry called for greater regional and international cooperation to counter these threats and prevent further escalation. 'We extend our heartfelt condolences and sincere sympathies to the families of the victims and wish a swift recovery to the wounded,' the statement concluded. At least 20 people were killed and 52 injured in the bombing, which was claimed by ISIS and targeted the Saint Mar Elias Church in the al-Dweilaa district of Damascus.
Shafaq News
5 hours ago
- Shafaq News
Israeli drone strike kills IRGC commander in central Iran
Shafaq News/ On Sunday, the commander of the Ashura base of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the city of Najafabad, Isfahan province, was killed following two successive Israeli drone strikes. According to Iranian news outlets, the commander's vehicle was initially targeted while he was inside, leaving him critically wounded. He was quickly transferred to an ambulance. However, the drone struck the ambulance killing him instantly. Since the beginning of the Iran–Israel war on June 13, Israeli airstrikes have hit deeply into Iran's military and scientific establishment. At least 17 senior security officials—ranging from top IRGC generals to intelligence chiefs—and more than 17 leading nuclear scientists have been killed.
