Iran could be more dangerous than ever. Here's how

After days of sending mixed signals, president Donald Trump authorised large-scale military strikes on Iran's Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan nuclear facilities. The strikes have potentially dealt crippling damage to Iran's nuclear program and leave the Middle East in a position of grave uncertainty.
Trump has framed the attacks as an isolated military action aimed at compelling Iran to the bargaining table, but a harsh response from Tehran could instigate a broader regional war.
Since Israel embarked on Operation Rising Lion to demolish Iran's nuclear program on June 13, I have engaged with numerous experts and sources in Tehran who are familiar with Iran's security policy thinking. These discussions revealed Iran's shock and outrage at Israel and at America actions, but also a steely resolve that made regime change in Iran and the long-term mitigation of the Iranian threat highly uncertain prospects.
Although supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) have sounded the alarm for decades about a potential war with Israel, there was a collective mood of surprise in Tehran at the timing and scale of Israel's offensive actions.
Iran's active participation in nuclear negotiations with America was regarded as a factor that would likely stall Israeli attacks on Iranian military facilities.
A similar mood of surprise surrounded overnight strikes. There was quiet optimism in Tehran that Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates or even Russian president Vladimir Putin would convince Trump of the destabilising consequences of a large-scale military attack.
Now that the worst-case scenario has unfolded, Iran is scrambling to coordinate an effective retaliatory response. The efficacy of Iran's retaliation is limited by a dearth of external support. Although the Iranian military aided Russia's invasion of Ukraine, there was little hope from Iranian experts I spoke to that the Kremlin would come to its aid. I heard conspiracies about how Putin will not help Iran because he is in thrall to the Russian-Jewish diaspora community in Israel.
This means that Iran's response will likely be asymmetric and incremental. Despite bellicose rhetoric from Hezbollah secretary general Naim Qassem and senior leadership figures from Yemen's Houthi group, Iran is hesitant about mobilising its proxy militias against the US. While a reported strike on American Ain al-Asad base in western Iraq last week showcased Iran's ability to target U.S. military personnel, Tehran's preferred strategy is to retaliate asymmetrically against Israel.
Given Israel's economic prosperity and perceived low tolerance for casualties, Iran believes that it can coerce Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into standing down.
Iran's belief that time is on its side is inextricably linked with historical memory. During the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War, Iranian forces faced down Iraqi chemical weapons attacks and clandestine American support for Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's military arsenal. These memories are being invoked by Iran's hardliners and state media to create a pro-regime patriotic rally.
Due to the efficacy of Iranian state messaging and the collective sense of outrage against Israel and the West, the Iranian people are unlikely to foment a large-scale revolution against the regime. This does not mean that regime change in Iran is a complete fantasy.
The failure of Khamenei's proxy militia and nuclear deterrence security strategies could convince dissenting hardliners within the IRGC to seize power through a coup d'etat. This scenario, which is being widely discussed in Tehran, could create a less predictable Iran that is determined to plug gaps in its conventional military arsenal and rebuild what remains of its uranium enrichment program.
This risk should be on the forefront of the minds of cheerleaders for Khamenei's overthrow in the US, Israel and Europe. While America and Israel have taken major steps towards derailing Iran's short-term threat potential, long-term risks persist. Further military escalations against Iran need to be carefully calibrated as they could unwittingly lead to a trade-off of short-term wins for long-term insecurity.

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24 minutes ago

• Sky News

Iranian nuclear sites sustained 'extremely severe damage' after US strikes, Pentagon says

Iranian nuclear sites sustained "extremely severe damage and destruction" in air strikes, the US has said - a stance mostly supported by the UN's nuclear watchdog. General Dan Caine, chairman of America's joint chiefs of staff, told reporters that the destruction wrought by Operation Midnight Hammer will take "some time" to assess. But he added that "initial battle damage assessments indicate that all three sites sustained extremely severe damage and destruction". The sites are Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. Fordow is a secretive nuclear facility buried about 80m below a mountain and one of two key uranium enrichment plants in Iran, along with Natanz. Isfahan features a large nuclear technology centre and enriched uranium is also stored there, diplomats say. At Fordow, satellite images taken after the attack show holes in the mountain in which the nuclear site was situated. Other images of Natanz, which is also suspected of having an underground facility, appear to show a new hole in a rocky area. Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, said the initial assessment was that "all of our precision munitions struck where we wanted them to strike and had the desired effect". "Which means, especially in Fordow, which was the primary target here, we believe we achieved destruction of capabilities there," he added. America's attack brings the US into direct involvement in the war between Israel and Iran, which started on 13 June. It prompted threats of reprisals from Tehran, raising fears of a wider regional conflict. Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said the facility at Natanz had been "completely destroyed", while its underground halls "suffered a lot" because of cuts to electricity as the result of Israeli attacks. He also told CNN that the Isfahan site had suffered "very significant damage". 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"Iran's nuclear programme is a grave threat to international security. Iran can never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon and the US has taken action to alleviate that threat," said Sir Keir Starmer.

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26 minutes ago

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The American attacks allow Netanyahu to end the wars with Iran and in Gaza, says his predecessor

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Suicide bombing at Damascus church kills 20, authorities say

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