Putin's desperate struggle to replace nuclear-capable bombers lost in Ukraine drone strikes
Western military aviation experts suggest it will take Russia years to replace the nuclear-capable bomber planes damaged in recent Ukrainian drone strikes. These attacks have placed additional strain on Russia's already delayed modernisation programme.
Satellite imagery of airfields in Siberia and Russia's far north reveals significant damage, with several aircraft completely destroyed. While reports vary, U.S. officials estimate that up to 20 warplanes were hit, with approximately 10 destroyed. This figure is about half the number estimated by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
The Russian government on Thursday denied that any planes were destroyed and said the damage would be repaired, but Russian military bloggers have spoken of loss or serious damage to about a dozen planes, accusing commanders of negligence.
The strikes - prepared over 18 months in a Ukrainian intelligence operation dubbed "Spider's Web", and conducted by drones that were smuggled close to the bases in trucks - dealt a powerful symbolic blow to a country that, throughout the Ukraine war, has frequently reminded the world of its nuclear might.
In practice, experts said, they will not seriously affect Russia's nuclear strike capability which is largely comprised of ground- and submarine-based missiles.
However, the Tu-95MS Bear-H and Tu-22M3 Backfire bombers that were hit were part of a long-range aviation fleet that Russia has used throughout the war to fire conventional missiles at Ukrainian cities, defence plants, military bases, power infrastructure and other targets, said Justin Bronk, an aviation expert at the RUSI think tank in London.
The same fleet had also been carrying out periodic patrol flights into the Arctic, North Atlantic and northern Pacific as a show of strength to deter Russia's Western adversaries.
Bronk said that at the outset of its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia was operating a fleet of 50-60 Bear-Hs and around 60 Backfires, alongside around 20 Tu-160M nuclear-capable Blackjack heavy bombers.
He estimated that Russia has now lost more than 10% of the combined Bear-H and Backfire fleet, taking into account last weekend's attacks and the loss of several planes earlier in the war - one shot down and the others struck while on the ground.
These losses "will put major pressure on a key Russian force that was already operating at maximum capacity," Bronk told Reuters.
Russia's defence ministry did not immediately reply to a request for comment.
Replacing the planes will be challenging. Both the Bear H and the Backfire are aircraft that were designed in the Soviet era and have been out of production for decades, said Douglas Barrie, aerospace expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, although existing planes have been upgraded over the years.
Barrie said that building new ones like-for-like was therefore very unlikely, and it was unclear whether Russia had any useable spare airframes of either type.
Western sanctions against Russia have aimed to restrict the import of components such as microprocessors that are vital to avionics systems, although Moscow has so far been comparatively successful at finding alternative sources, Barrie added.
Russia has been modernising its Blackjack bomber fleet, and Putin sent a pointed signal to the West last year by taking a 30-minute flight in one such aircraft and pronouncing it ready for service.
But production of new Blackjacks is slow - one Russian military blogger this week put it at four per year - and Western experts say progress in developing Russia's next-generation PAK DA bomber has also been moving at a crawl.
The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) said in a report last month that Russia had signed a contract with manufacturer Tupolev in 2013 to build the PAK DA, but cited Russian media reports as saying state test flights are not scheduled until next year, with initial production to begin in 2027.
While it would be logical for Russia to try to speed up its PAK DA plans, it may not have the capacity, said Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the FAS. He said in a telephone interview that Russia is facing delays with a range of other big defence projects including its new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile.
RUSI's Bronk was also sceptical of Moscow's chances of accelerating the timeline for the next-generation bomber.
"Russia will struggle to deliver the PAK DA programme at all in the coming five years, let alone accelerate it, due to budgetary shortfalls and materials and technology constraints on industry due to sanctions," he said.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
BBC News
2 hours ago
- BBC News
The Documentary Podcast Ukrainian life under Russian occupation
Currently about a fifth of Ukraine is under Russian occupation. Olga Malchevska of the BBC News team has spoken to 3 people from different cities in this area. She tells us about the threats they face for being Ukrainian and the small acts of resistance they carry out. This episode of The Documentary comes to you from The Fifth Floor, the show at the heart of global storytelling, with BBC journalists from all around the world. Presented by Irena Taranyuk. Produced by Caroline Ferguson, Alice Gioia and Hannah Dean. This is an EcoAudio certified production. (Photo: Irena Taranyuk.)
Reuters
4 hours ago
- Reuters
Russian attacks kill one in eastern Ukraine, one in the north
June 22 (Reuters) - Russian strikes on Saturday on key towns in Donetsk region on the eastern front of the war in Ukraine killed at least one person while another died in a drone attack in the north near the Russian border, officials said. The Russian military said its forces had captured another village in its slow advance westward through Donetsk region. And reports from Kharkiv region in the northeast suggested Russian troops were closing in on the city of Kupiansk. Russian forces struck Sloviansk and Kramatorsk -- two cities that Moscow will target as its forces press on with their westward drive. Both towns have come under frequent attack since the Russian invasion of its neighbour in February 2022. Donetsk region Governor Vadym Filashkin said one person died and three were injured in Sloviansk, with pictures posted online showing buildings reduced to rubble. He said four multi-storey dwellings and 32 private homes had suffered damage. In Kramatorsk, pictures posted by the city council showed heavy damage to part of an apartment building. Officials said at least one person was trapped under rubble and a number of other residents were injured. A mass drone attack on the town of Nizhyn near the Russian border killed one person and damaged local infrastructure. The Russian Defence Ministry said its forces had seized the village of Zaporizhzhia, southwest of Pokrovsk, where Ukrainian forces have been holding back Russian attacks for months. Zaporizhzhia village is distinct from the Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia, the regional centre and large industrial hub located some 160 km (90 miles) to the southeast. The General Staff of Ukraine's armed forces on Friday listed the village as one of several where Kyiv's forces had repelled Russian attacks. On Friday, the Russian Defence Ministry said it had captured the village of Moskovka, just outside the city of Kupiansk, also the target of repeated Russian attacks in recent months. Both Russian and Ukrainian military bloggers have reported an upswing in fighting around Kupiansk this past week. The town was first occupied by Russian forces in the first weeks of the 2022 invasion, but recaptured by Ukrainian troops later in the year in a lightning counter-offensive.
The Sun
5 hours ago
- The Sun
It's time to ditch ruinous green delusions, cut bloated welfare and start taking Britain's defence seriously
UK needs to spend more on defence BRITAIN'S defence spending falls way short of what is demanded by the hostile advances of our enemies. On UK streets we've seen outrageous murders, poisonings and spying by Russia and China's brazen henchmen. Moscow fires chilling threats of retaliation at us on a regular basis over our support for Ukraine. The escalation of conflict in the Middle East has put our forces on high alert. Yesterday, a terror suspect believed to be spying for Iran was arrested at a key UK airbase in Cyprus. Meanwhile, security at RAF Brize Norton was exposed as a farce by Palestinian fanatics on Friday. In this climate the Government's commitment to hike our defence spending from 2.3 to 2.6 per cent of GDP by 2027 is not enough — not by a long chalk. As President Trump has pointed out, this level of investment is a relic of a past era. Even Germany forks out more than us in cash terms. This week's NATO summit will see Britain pressing to ratchet up our spending to a more realistic five per cent. But even if that is agreed, it will not kick in until the 2030s and some of the cash will go on security infrastructure. To meet the threats facing the UK now, Sir Keir Starmer must tear up our ruinous net zero ambitions and ballooning welfare budget. Missiles streak into downtown Israeli city as Iran breaches Iron Dome defences Then plough more of those funds into defence of the realm. In an increasingly dangerous world, we cannot afford to wait another ten years. 1 Grooming injustice WHAT insanity that convicted rapists can seek parental rights over kids born as a result of their evil acts. Rotherham grooming gang survivor Sammy Woodhouse is rightly campaigning for an end to this appalling injustice. Sammy, who gave birth aged just 15 after suffering horrific abuse, was told her attacker could apply from jail for contact with her child because of his rights to a family life. As she said, it was 'another nightmare I had to live through.' MP and fellow rape victim Natalie Fleet is also attempting to amend legislation to ban fathers from gaining parental responsibility over kids conceived during rape. She says: 'It's shocking that children are the only proceed of crime that a criminal can have lifelong access to.' This disgraceful legal loophole must be closed immediately.
