Rupee ends nearly flat following choppy trading; forward premiums dip
The Indian rupee experienced choppy trading before ending nearly flat on Monday as a broad based decline in the U.S. dollar blunted risk aversion spurred by the escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict.
ADVERTISEMENT The rupee closed at 86.0650 against the U.S. dollar, nearly unchanged from its close of 86.08 in the previous session.
The South Asian currency hovered in a 85.9525-86.23 range on the day with traders pointing to exporter hedging, oil prices and broad-based dollar weakness among the cues that impacted its trajectory.
While "traders were biased towards buying dips (on USD/INR), the price action was somewhat confusing, leading to cutting of speculative positions," a trader at a state-run bank said.
Meanwhile, the dollar-rupee forward premiums eased. The 1-year implied yield was down 5 basis points at 1.83%, weighed by an uptick in near-tenor U.S. Treasury yields and exporter hedging. The dollar index was down 0.3% at 97.9 and Asian currencies were trading mixed. The offshore Chinese yuan rose 0.1% while the Thai baht declined by about 0.3%.
ADVERTISEMENT Investors are keeping a close eye on signs that the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict may escalate into a broader regional conflict.
"All eyes are now on the trio driving market sentiment- war, trade wars, and central bank moves," said Amit Pabari, managing director at FX advisory firm CR Forex.
ADVERTISEMENT Pabari expects the rupee to remain volatile in the near-term and reckons that an intensification of hostilities in the Middle East could push the currency towards 86.50-86.80. Meanwhile, India's merchandise trade deficit narrowed to $21.88 billion in May, according to government data released on Monday.
ADVERTISEMENT
India and the U.S. aim to sign an interim trade deal before July 9, an Indian trade ministry official said on Monday.
(You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Hindustan Times
16 minutes ago
- Hindustan Times
Canadian premiers push for Brad Wall as high commissioner to India
The premiers of two Canadian provinces have suggested that Prime Minister Mark Carney appoint a former leader of Saskatchewan as the country's next high commissioner to India. Brad Wall was premier (equivalent of an Indian chief minister) for over a decade from 2007 to 2018. His successor in that position, Scott Moe, told reporters that Wall would make the ideal candidate for Canada's top diplomat in New Delhi. (sourced) Brad Wall was premier (equivalent of an Indian chief minister) for over a decade from 2007 to 2018. His successor in that position, Scott Moe, told reporters that Wall would make the ideal candidate for Canada's top diplomat in New Delhi. According to the outlet National Post, Moe said he would be a 'proponent' of such an appointment because 'of the effort and focus that he provided' the relations between the province and India and 'province-to-industry relations in not just India but in many countries around the world.' He made these remarks on Wednesday at the joint press conference with his Alberta counterpart Danielle Smith. And she agreed with him, saying, 'I'd be supportive of that.' She added, 'I think that Saskatchewan has done incredibly impressive work on expanding its footprint internationally through its trade offices, in particular India.' Wall played a central role in securing a contract for the Saskatchewan-based Cameco Corporation, to supply over seven million pounds of uranium concentrate to India, over a five-year timeframe in 2015. Wall was present in person as the contract was signed in the presence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi who was on a bilateral visit that spring, and his then Canadian counterpart Stephen Harper. The decision to appoint HCs to each other's capitals came when Modi met Canadian PM Mark Carney on the margins of the G7 leaders' summit in Kananaskis on Tuesday. While Canada's last high commissioner Cameron Mackay left last summer, his Indian counterpart Sanjay Kumar Verma was among the six officials New Delhi withdrew in October 2024 after Ottawa asked for waiving of their diplomatic immunity so they could be questioned in connection with violent criminal activity in the country. In retaliation, India expelled six Canadian diplomats, including its acting high commissioner at the time.
Hindustan Times
31 minutes ago
- Hindustan Times
Shots fired at Nijjar-linked business in Canada; cousin blames Bishnoi gang
Toronto: A business owned by a cousin of murdered pro-Khalistan figure Hardeep Singh Nijjar was fired upon in the early hours of Thursday, the latest in a series of such incidents targeting prominent Indo-Canadian businessmen in the area. A business owned by a cousin of murdered pro-Khalistan figure Hardeep Singh Nijjar was fired upon in the early hours of Thursday, the latest in a series of such incidents targeting prominent Indo-Canadian businessmen in the area. Multiple shots were fired on the premises of Nijjar Trucking owned by Raghbir Singh Nijjar at around 3am on Thursday. The outlet Red FM reported that on June 18, there was an attempt to set vehicles afire at the same business. It cited Nijjar as alleging that the Lawrence Bishnoi gang was behind the attack as part of an extortion attempt. His residence had been similarly targeted in August 2024. Nijjar also said that criminal gangs were using international students for these violent acts. While he is related to Hardeep Singh Nijjar, who was killed on June 18, 2023, in Surrey, British Columbia, a person familiar with them said they had not been close. This incident followed the murder of another businessman Satwinder Sharma on June 11 in neighbouring Abbotsford. Sharma, 56, was shot while at his business location. The case is being handled by the Integrated Homicide Investigation Team or IHIT which said, 'Early indications suggest this was a targeted incident and no one else was injured as a result of the shooting. Investigators are working diligently to determine the motive and the circumstances surrounding the homicide.' Another repeat victim is Satish Kumar, president of the Lakshmi Narayan Mandir in Surrey. On June 7, Reflections Banquet Hall, which he owns, was shot at. Early on Saturday, another business, Satish Accounting Services, was similarly targeted. Kumar told the outlet Vancouver Sun, 'My life is on the line. My family's life is on the line.' In December 2023, the residence where his son and family live in was fired upon. British Columbia Premier (equivalent of an Indian chief minister) David Eby has called upon the Federal Government to designate such violent criminal groups as terrorist organisations. In a letter to Prime Minister Mark Carney on Wednesday, he wrote, 'On February 15, 2025, the Government of Canada announced the listing of seven transnational criminal groups as terrorist entities under the Criminal Code. British Columbia believes that this legal instrument should be applied to groups, such as the Lawrence Bishnoi gang, engaged in extortion and violent crimes in multiple Canadian provinces. This is a complex and nationally impactful criminal issue deserving of a national criminal law response to investigate and prosecute those participating in, promoting and/or facilitating these crimes.'
Time of India
32 minutes ago
- Time of India
Butterfly effect: Flutter of jobs, migration & oil
By: Prem Udayabhanu A Kerala migrant's inside view of Pittsburgh's steel legacy, shifting politics and how oil prices and job shifts echo across oceans The lingering aura of home and the picture-postcard texture of the professed land differentiate Patoor from Pittsburgh. Much like the seemingly narrow differentiators that set Pittsburgh apart from its northeastern US cradle state of Pennsylvania. Pittsburgh, in the swing state of Pennsylvania, did not sway to the Red cauldron in 2025, though Pennsylvania did—as Trump triumphed. P ittsburgh has never elected a Republican mayor in a century. The last time a Republican won a mayoral election was in 1925. Polls are due this November. The scent of red color, though, is wafting across the boulevards that crisscross Meadowridge in Harrison City as Trump squeezed Democratic margins. Notice how the 'U' goes for a toss once you cross the oceanic swathes of the Pacific. Did we hear the linguistic echoes accompanying migration? Perhaps, yes. Just came across the lingering effability of Malabari slang in Patel's Indian store at Mall Plaza Boulevard, Monroeville. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Trading CFD dengan Teknologi dan Kecepatan Lebih Baik IC Markets Mendaftar Undo We also stumbled upon a Tamil family. Telugu and Hindi whispers passed by—speaking loudly is not commonplace here. Official stats about Pittsburgh's scattered Indian demographic are scarce. These were real people, original migrant stories thinly spread across the demographic spectrum of Pittsburgh's so-called Rust Belt terrain. The Brussels-based Migration Policy Institute offered details of diaspora culled from the US Census Bureau's 2019–2023 American Community Survey. Of the 2.4 million residents of Pittsburgh, 16,000 were of Indian origin. Pittsburgh's population has since crossed three million (a size comparable to Kochi and Thiruvananthapuram, among Kerala's largest districts). But Pittsburgh's Indian count likely remains the same. STEM of knowledge Stumbled upon a finance graduate—a Mallu-Mumbaikar keen to chase the American dream at Penn State Behrend, Erie. The lanky teen is pursuing finance and business economics at the undergraduate level, sharing a hostel room with a White peer. First-year students are invariably paired with American students in hostels, rarely with another international student. Few Indians pursue finance, he says. Most flock to their national fixation—science, technology, engineering, and maths (STEM), especially computer science or computer engineering. That's a broad indicator of Indian students' academic leanings. Nearly 70% of Indian students abroad pursue STEM courses. Employability is the gamble they dabble in when jobs are the sweepstakes. Conveyor belt of jobs Jobs and factories were poll issues at the core of Trump's presidential surge. Trump mocked conventional political wisdom by borrowing generously from the Democrats' playbook and reinforcing the Rust Belt imagery to lord over them. Rust Belt states—the US Midwest and Northeast—were once manufacturing hubs, especially for steel and autos. These include Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan—with Pittsburgh, a key steel hub, located in the Northeast per US Census definitions. Rust Belt was a contrasting play on Sun Belt states, used to describe booming economies in the South and Southwest. The term Rust Bowl was first coined by Ronald Reagan's presidential opponent Walter Mondale. Mondale failed miserably, and Reagan won in a landslide. Trump romped home convincingly, sweeping the Rust Belt states. It is another story that the Rust Bowl coinage itself was a play on the Dust Bowl of the 1930s, when severe dust storms colluded with economic misery to evoke the desolation and rusted factories. Mondale's insinuation was that Reagan's trade policies were turning the industrial US Midwest into a Rust Bowl. The term later morphed into Rust Belt, thanks to imaginative scribes who vouched for Mondale's theory. Golden avenues of dealmaking The new dispensation is eager to follow up on Rust Bowl, as is evident from efforts to bolster Nippon Steel's $14.9 billion bid to run Pittsburgh-based US Steel, and a golden share announced for the US to checkmate the yet unclear foreign, or Japanese, ownership issue. The golden share reportedly includes a clause allowing a presidential veto if the Japanese were to consider shifting US Steel's HQ from Pittsburgh. That should make the Rust Belt happy, but may worry foreign investors. As Trump zooms past the golden avenues of deal-making, invoking the magic wand wielded by the US President, by relentlessly escalating and backtracking on tariffs as a negotiating tool and nudging global companies to invest and Make America Great Again, oil prices have increased by roughly $10 a barrel, or 20 cents per gallon—thanks to Israel's military adventure in Iran. In the month since the Hamas-Israel conflict erupted, the price of the Indian crude oil basket surged nearly 10%. A litre of petrol now costs roughly Rs 107.48 in Thiruvananthapuram. If you crisscross the oceanic swathes of the Pacific to reach Pittsburgh, you could buy 1.45 litres for the dollar equivalent of that. This is one rare commodity in the US that you can buy cheaper than in India. A chai costs $1.5 at the Indian store in Monroeville. We do not need the IQ of STEM aspirants to understand that, unlike in our storied backyards, the welcome absence of the burden of cess alone would push oil prices out of the pricey terrain for all and sundry. For our political machinery, a tax on oil—which you cannot do without—remains the go-to fix for a pedestrian revenue-generation philosophy. The butterfly effect may move oceans and create giant waves. Oceans and titanic waves may spur the flutter of butterflies, if chaos theory is invoked. But the united colors of migration, jobs, stats, and oil may remain unique, distant truths across the planet—perhaps even farther than the oceans that separate them. (The writer is a senior journalist who has shifted to the US)
