Trump's go-it-alone strategy on Iran risks dividing an already split Congress
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump's decision to launch a military strike on Iran's nuclear sites without fully consulting the U.S. Congress layered a partisan approach onto a risky action, particularly because the White House briefed top Republican leaders beforehand without doing the same for Democrats.
While House Speaker Mike Johnson, Senate Republican leader John Thune and the GOP chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee were all briefed before the action, their counterparts were not. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer was given a perfunctory heads-up by the White House shortly before the strikes were made public. And House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries' office received a 'courtesy call' before Trump announced it. The so-called Gang of Eight congressional and intelligence leaders were not notified before the mission, according to two people familiar with the situation and granted anonymity to discuss it.
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Winnipeg Free Press
an hour ago
- Winnipeg Free Press
New York City is using ranked choice voting in its Democratic mayoral primary. Here's how it works
NEW YORK (AP) — New York City is using ranked choice voting in its Democratic mayoral primary election Tuesday, a system that takes some explaining, even for New Yorkers who have used it before. Voters' understanding of how ranked choice works could play a role in which candidate comes out on top in a race that features former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, progressive upstart Zohran Mamdani and several other current and former public officials, including City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams and City Comptroller Brad Lander, who was arrested last week at an immigration court. The system is based on a simple premise: Democracy works better if people aren't forced to make an all-or-nothing choice with their vote. Rather than pick just one candidate, voters get to rank several in order of preference. Even if a voter's top choice doesn't have enough support to win, their rankings of other candidates still play a role in determining the victor. The system is more complex than a traditional election, making it tough to forecast a winner. It could also take longer to get results. How does it work? In New York City's version, voters get to rank up to five candidates, from first to last, on the ballot. If one candidate is the first choice of a majority of voters — more than 50% — that person wins the race outright, just like in a traditional election. If nobody hits that threshold, ranked choice analysis kicks in. Vote tabulation is done by computer in rounds. After the first round, the candidate in last place — the candidate ranked No. 1 by the fewest amount of people — is eliminated. The computer then looks at the ballots cast by people who ranked that candidate first, to see who they ranked second. Those people's votes are then redistributed to their second choices. That process then repeats. As more candidates are eliminated, voters' third, fourth and even fifth choices could potentially come into play. Rounds continue until there are only two candidates left. The one with the most votes wins. Eleven candidates are on the ballot in the Democratic mayoral primary. Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams isn't one of them. He's a Democrat but is running as an independent. The Republican Party has already picked its nominee, Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa. How long will this take? The computerized process of tabulating votes takes little time, but it doesn't start right away. Polls close at 9 p.m. Tuesday. Within a few hours, preliminary results should give a picture of how the candidates are doing based on voters' first choices. The ranked choice tabulations, however, won't start until July 1 because the city needs to wait for the arrival of mail-in ballots. The July 1 tabulation could potentially give a clear picture of who won, but the result won't be official. Further rounds of ranked choice analysis will be done as additional absentee ballots come in until the board certifies the election July 15. This will be the second time New York City has used ranked choice in a mayoral primary. The first time, in 2021, things went haywire when elections officials neglected to clear test data from the tabulation program. That led to an inaccurate vote tally being reported until officials realized the error. Officials are hoping things go smoother this time. Why do people like ranked choice? One benefit is that nobody 'wastes' their vote by picking an unpopular candidate as their first choice. Voters can rank someone they like No. 1, even if they suspect the candidate doesn't stand a chance. If that person is eliminated, voters still get a say in who wins based on their other rankings. Another benefit is that it's tough for someone to get elected without broad support. In a traditional election, it's possible for someone with fringe political views to win in a crowded field of candidates, even if they are deeply disliked by a majority of voters. That's theoretically less likely in a ranked choice system. A candidate could get the largest share of first-choice votes but still lose to someone who is the second or third choice of a large number of people. What are the negatives? The system is tough to grasp. It requires voters to do more research. It also makes races less predictable. Transparency and trust are also potential problems. Ordinarily, candidates, the public and news organizations can see votes coming in, precinct by precinct, and know exactly who is leading and where their support comes from. Under the ranked choice system, the process of redistributing votes is done by computer. Outside groups will have a harder time evaluating whether the software sorted the ranked votes accurately. That's a challenge for news organizations, like The Associated Press, that analyze vote tallies and attempt to report a winner before the count is complete. There may be instances when candidates who seem to have a comfortable lead in first-place votes on election night lose because relatively few voters rank them as their second or third choice. That could lead to people questioning the results.
Vancouver Sun
3 hours ago
- Vancouver Sun
World braces for Iran's response after U.S. strikes signal new era
(Bloomberg) — The unprecedented US airstrikes on Iran have set traders and governments worldwide on edge, as the Islamic Republic warns of retaliation and Israel shows no sign of letting up in its assault. President Donald Trump's decision to deploy bunker-busting bombs, Washington's first direct military action against Iran after decades of hostility, has pushed the Middle East into uncharted territory and raised geopolitical risk in a world economy already facing severe uncertainty over his trade war. Oil rose almost 6% when markets opened Monday morning in Asia, with analysts warning $100 a barrel is in sight depending on Iran's further response to the conflict, which began June 13 with a surprise attack by Israel. The US dollar pushed higher, stock futures fell and Bitcoin slid below $100,000 for the first time since early May. Start your day with a roundup of B.C.-focused news and opinion. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder. The next issue of Sunrise will soon be in your inbox. Please try again Interested in more newsletters? Browse here. The extensive US operation — which targeted nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan — included 125 aircraft, strikes by Tomahawk missiles launched from a submarine and the use of 14 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs, the first time such bunker busters were used in combat. At the United Nations on Sunday, Iranian Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani told an emergency Security Council meeting that the 'timing nature and scale' of Tehran's response 'will be decided by its armed forces.' Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi earlier said the country reserves all options to respond. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which answers to the Iran's supreme leader, signaled US military bases in the region could be targeted. Trump has vowed to meet any retaliation with force 'far greater' than the US strikes on the nuclear sites. He also floated the possibility of regime change in Iran, although US and Israeli officials Sunday stressed that isn't their aim. Police in New York, Washington and Los Angeles increased patrols at religious institutions, diplomatic facilities and public spaces. Officials cited no immediate credible threats but highlighted the need for vigilance. The Department of Homeland Security said the Israel-Iran war has placed the US in a 'heightened threat environment' through Sept. 22. It's still unclear how successful the US strikes were in eliminating Iran's most heavily protected enrichment site at Fordow. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, which officially has the task of monitoring Iran's program, told the UN Security Council on Sunday that no one yet knows the condition of the facility, nor the location of Iran's more than 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%. Any move by Tehran to harass traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a major artery for global crude and natural gas, has raised the specter of a spike in energy prices at a fragile moment for the global economy. The World Bank, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the International Monetary Fund have all downgraded their growth forecasts in recent months. 'An expanding conflict adds to the risk of higher oil prices and an upward impulse to inflation,' Bloomberg Economics analysts including Ziad Daoud wrote in a report. Naval forces in the region warned that ships, especially US-linked vessels, could be at heightened risk. Greece, home to more oil-tanker capacity than any other nation, cautioned its ship owners to think again if they're considering entering the Persian Gulf. Two supertankers both capable of hauling about 2 million barrels of crude U-turned in the Strait of Hormuz, entering the waterway then abruptly changing course on Sunday. British Airways and Singapore Airlines canceled flights to the Persian Gulf, increasing aviation disruptions in the region. While the US action was condemned by the likes of Russia and China, even allies such as UK and France distanced themselves from Trump's decision. Iran, meanwhile, finds itself isolated. Tehran's top allies — Russia and China — are offering only rhetorical support, while the militia groups Tehran has armed and funded for years are refusing or unable to enter the fight. Iran's Araghchi said he plans to travel to Moscow, although Russian officials have made it clear that a cooperation treaty the two countries signed in January doesn't include mutual-defense obligations. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged in a news conference to continue Israel's military campaign in Iran as well as in the Gaza Strip. The Israel Defense Forces said Sunday it hit a surface-to-air missile launcher in Tehran, while in western Iran, Israeli jets struck infrastructure for storage and missile launches as well as satellites and military radar sites.
Calgary Herald
5 hours ago
- Calgary Herald
Oil spikes as Trump's attack on Iran ramps up risks to supplies
(Bloomberg) — Oil surged after the US struck Iran's three main nuclear sites and threatened further attacks, exacerbating a crisis in the Middle East and stoking concerns that energy supplies from the region could be disrupted. Article content Global benchmark Brent rallied as much as 5.7% to $81.40 a barrel, before paring some of that gain in heavy trading. Timespreads widened. US President Donald Trump said air attacks had 'obliterated' the trio of targets, and threatened more military action if Iran didn't make peace. In its initial reply, Tehran warned the strikes would trigger 'everlasting consequences.' Article content Article content Article content Brent's prompt spread — the difference between its two nearest contracts, and a closely followed metric — widened to as much as $1.99 a barrel in backwardation, from $1.53 on Friday. That's a bullish pattern indicating concern about tight prompt supplies. Article content Article content The US assault — which targeted sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan — dramatically raises the stakes in the confrontation and increases the premium that traders are pricing into the global energy market. Still, the extent of the gains will depend on how Tehran opts to respond to the US moves. Article content The oil market has been gripped by the crisis since Israel attacked Iran more than a week ago, with futures pushing higher, options volumes spiking along with freight rates, and the futures curve shifting to reflect tensions about tighter near-term supplies. The Middle East accounts for about a third of global crude output, and a sustained increase in prices would boost inflationary pressures worldwide. Article content Article content 'The market will closely watch Iran's response — particularly whether it will move to disrupt Middle Eastern oil flows, directly or indirectly through its regional proxies,' said Muyu Xu, a senior crude analyst at Kpler Ltd. 'If Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, even for one day, oil can temporarily hit $120 or even $150.' Article content There are multiple, overlapping risks for physical crude flows. The biggest centers on the Strait of Hormuz, should Tehran seek to retaliate by attempting to close the chokepoint. About a fifth of the world's crude output passes through the waterway at the entrance to the Persian Gulf. Article content Iran's parliament has called for the closure of the strait, according to state-run TV. Such a move, however, could not proceed without the explicit approval of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
