China-US trade soars as exporters race to hit trade truce window
[HONG KONG] A temporary trade truce between the world's two largest economies has sparked a knee-jerk bounce across China's ports and factory floors.
In the week beginning May 12, when the US and China agreed to sharply reduce tariffs for 90 days, bookings on freighters headed from China to US shores more than doubled from the prior week to about 228,000 TEUs, or twenty-foot equivalent units, data from container-tracking platform Vizion and data provider Dun & Bradstreet shows.
Prices for space on ships across the Pacific into the US also rose, with spot rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles jumping about 16 per cent – the biggest increase for the route this year – to US$3,136 per forty-foot equivalent unit for the week ending May 15, according to the Drewry World Container Index. The global composite index also rose the most this year.
And the demand was not just by sea: The number of international air cargo flights rose almost 18 per cent, according to data released by China's Ministry of Transport.
The surge is likely a wave of front-loading as the trade truce opens a window to avoid steep US tariffs, said Jayendu Krishna, a director at Drewry Maritime Services. It's also an important buying season for the holidays – it takes about a month for items to arrive stateside and retailers are rapidly running through inventory they have had on hand awaiting some trade certainty.
'The current surge in bookings is likely to lead to supply chain disruptions for the next two to three months, unless there is another tariff shock from Trump,' Krishna said.
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Bookings on ships are due to be filled by factories like supply-chain manager Chen Lei's, which makes various types of home appliance products from coffee machines and toasters to irons and humidifiers. The Guangdong-based manufacturer where Chen works counts Royal Philips and Walmart among clients, and has received a flurry of requests from the US to resume production on orders that were put on hold in April.
'Machines in the factories are working non-stop now,' said Chen. '90 days is too short. Production, shipping – we can't wait a single minute.'
AP Moller-Maersk, a major container liner that's also one of the largest on the trans-Pacific route, added capacity again after seeing an increase in bookings when the truce was announced, a spokesperson said.
Even with the boost in activity from earlier weeks, the overall level of shipments remains in-line with this time last year. That shows many retailers are either not ordering to the same extent, waiting for more certainty, or maybe have already stocked up earlier this year.
Liners were also bringing unused capacity already on these routes back online, with the share of voided sailings down to 13 per cent as at May 26, compared to 25 per cent a week before, data from HSBC and Flexport show.
A flurry of trade figures from across Asia this week show the chaos that Trump's policies have wrought this year.
In South Korea, the value of exports fell 2.4 per cent in the first 20 days of May from the prior year, with outbound shipments to the US down about 15 per cent. Japanese exports rose only 2 per cent in April – the weakest growth in seven months, data out on Wednesday (May 21) showed. BLOOMBERG
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