Fear gauge India VIX spikes 8% in a week. Here are 3 tips to avoid a crash
India VIX has spiked over 8% in the past week, with its impact clearly visible on Dalal Street on Tuesday.
Nilesh Jain, Head Vice President of Equity Research (Technical and Derivatives) at Centrum Broking, observed that market volatility has remained high over the last two to three sessions, with the India VIX climbing from about 15 to 19. He explained that this spike is largely due to a significant buildup of call writing positions, which is capping any short-covering attempts and establishing a firm resistance around the 25,000 mark.
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India's fear gauge, the India VIX , has surged over 8% in the past week, and the impact was evident on Dalal Street on Tuesday as benchmark indices swung wildly. Selling pressure in auto, IT, and financial stocks added to the volatility ahead of the monthly expiry on Thursday. The VIX jumped nearly 6% during the session, hitting a high of 19.06, as the Nifty moved within a 300-point range and the BSE Sensex fluctuated over 1,100 points between its intraday high and low.Commenting on the day's action, Nilesh Jain, Head Vice President, Equity Research Technical and Derivatives at Centrum Broking said that volatility in the markets has been quite high over the past 2-3 sessions, with India VIX moving from levels around 15 to 19, today. He attributed this to the presence of high concentration of call writers who are preventing any short covering move and creating a strong resistance at 25,000.Analyst VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments the market to likely consolidate around the current levels in the near-term. "A sustained rally will happen only when leading indicators suggest revival in earnings growth. Since mutual funds are sitting on sizeable cash any dip will be bought into and high valuations will trigger selling on rallies," he added.Vijayakumar also decoded the current investor mood, saying that there is a slow accumulation in rate-sensitive sectors like autos in anticipation of more rate cuts which are almost sure to happen since inflation is trending down. The investors are staying invested by way of SIP with a longer time horizon.The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will hold its monetary policy (MPC) next week and the outcome will come on June 6.Markets stabilized after President Donald Trump paused the reciprocal tariffs on April 9, triggering a nearly 9% rally in the Nifty. However, fresh concerns emerged following his recent comments on trade negotiations with the European Union, where he claimed the talks were going "nowhere" and threatened to impose a 50% tariff, though he later deferred the decision from June to July. Adding to the uncertainty, Trump also warned of a potential 25% tariff on smartphone makers like Apple and Samsung if they continue selling devices in the U.S. that are manufactured overseas.US yields are up amid current uncertainties and investors seem to be booking profit after the recent rally in Indian equities and moving to less risky assets, Aamar Deo Singh, Senior Vice President-Equity, Commodity & Currency at Angel One opined.Also Read: Bitter-sweet ride: 10 sugar stocks outperform Nifty with up to 77% returns, but 18 sink as much as 36% 1) Avoid aggressive bets on index futures & options (F&O), including Nifty and Bank Nifty, Jain said.2) Adopt a stock specific approach and use corrections as a buying opportunity, Jain of Centrum Broking said.3) Angel One's Deo advises investors to buy in small tranches with a long-term horizon. He suggests sector diversification with trusted names like HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries (RIL).(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of Economic Times)
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The muted VIX suggests confidence in the market's overall sentiment. Synopsis In 2025, Indian markets have surged to record highs despite global headwinds, with volatility indicators like India VIX and Implied Volatility (IV) painting a picture of surprising calm. The VIX has remained range-bound between 12 and 16, signalling investor confidence, while ATM IVs for Nifty options suggest low volatility with occasional spikes around key events. India's benchmark indices, Nifty and Sensex, began 2025 on a muted note but later rebounded sharply, with Nifty marking a fresh all-time high above 25,200 in June. This year, Indian stock markets have been facing sharp peaks and troughs, with average At-The-Money (ATM) Implied Volatility (IV) for Nifty 50 options ranging between 13.5% and 15.5%. Global economic uncertainties, US elections, and Tariff changes have shaped investor sentiments and boosted sector rotation. ADVERTISEMENT The India VIX is a number that analyses Nifty options and shows how much volatility or movement traders are expecting in the market over the next 30 days. It's often called the "fear index" because it usually goes up when there's uncertainty or fear in the market. So it has an inverse relation with markets. But in 2025, the VIX has stayed quite calm and steady, mostly moving between 12 and 16 — suggesting investors are not nervous, and there's no sign of panic in the market. This aligned with the higher levels in major indices, sectoral outperformance in IT, Auto, and Energy, and FMCG and Metals. The muted VIX suggests confidence in the market's overall sentiment, despite minor dips due to economic & geopolitical stress, quarterly earnings volatility and monsoon concerns—all of which tend to influence the sentiments of retail India VIX to ATM IVs, VIX is a broader concept while ATM IVs are specific to index options, like Nifty 50, Sensex and Bank Nifty Options. In 2025, ATM (At The Money) IVs for Nifty options have averaged between 13.5% and 15.5%, reflecting a low-volatility range. However, sharp IV spikes have been observed ahead of major events such as RBI policy meetings, Union Budget announcements, and during quarter result announcements. ADVERTISEMENT A closer look at the derivatives front: Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has traded near neutral to slightly bullish territory (0.85-1.10), signalling balanced sentiment with an upward bias, where put options have been trading more than or equal to calls, with rising prices suggesting upward bias. Open Interest (OI) concentration on higher strikes (e.g., 25,500–26,000 on Nifty) monthly expiry suggests participants are pricing in range-bound to moderately bullish scenarios, while on the downside, 24,500 and 24,000 strikes have the highest Put OI build up for month of June. Meanwhile, falling IV with rising OI on call sides has often preceded short-covering rallies. ADVERTISEMENT For investors, the low volatility implies stable accumulation opportunities, especially in sectors showing relative strength such as Healthcare (Pharma & Hospital), Cements, Real Estate, Agri inputs, and Power proxies. However, it also warrants caution. So when investing, one should also use a protective put and covered call strategy to safeguard from traders, 2025 has so far been the year of non-directional strategies — think Iron Condors, Calendar Spreads, and Straddles during events. With VIX low, the cost of buying options is low, making event-based long IV trades more attractive when executed timely. ADVERTISEMENT While the markets appear calm, it's important not to get lulled into complacency. The Indian equity market in 2025 has been shaped by a mix of earnings surprises, data around global uncertainties, and geopolitical developments. VIX and IV are more than just technical metrics — they reflect market psychology and can offer early warnings of turning we head into the second half of the year, keeping a close eye on volatility signals will help you navigate uncertainty with greater confidence— and avoid getting caught off-guard by sudden moves. ADVERTISEMENT (The author Dr Ravi Singh is Senior Vice President - Retail Research, Religare Broking. Views are own) (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. 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