The priorities that will determine how cardinals vote in the conclave
The 133 cardinals from 70 different countries face a monumental task: choosing a pope who can restore credibility and relevance to the 2,000-year-old Catholic Church, particularly among young people.
While the prospect of electing the first Asian or African pontiff, or deciding between a conservative and progressive leader, looms large, the cardinals appear united in their desire for a leader who can address this challenge.
It's a tall task, given the sexual abuse and financial scandals that have harmed the church's reputation and the secularising trends in many parts of the world that are turning people away from organised religion.
Add to that the Holy See's dire financial state and often dysfunctional bureaucracy, and the job of being pope in the 21st century seems almost impossible.
'We need a superman,' said Cardinal William Seng Chye Goh, the 67-year-old archbishop of Singapore.
The cardinals will begin trying to find him on Wednesday afternoon, when those 'princes of the church' walk solemnly into the Sistine Chapel to the meditative chant of the 'Litany of the Saints.' They'll take their oaths of secrecy under the daunting vision of heaven and hell in Michelangelo's 'Last Judgement,' hear a meditation from a senior cardinal, and then cast their first ballot.
Assuming no candidate secures the necessary two-thirds majority, or 89 votes, the cardinals will retire for the day and return on Thursday. They will have two ballots in the morning and then two in the afternoon, until a winner is found.
Asked what the priorities of the cardinal electors were, Goh told reporters this week that the No. 1 issue was that the new pope must be able to spread the Catholic faith and 'make the church relevant in today's time. How to reach out to young people, how to show a face of love, joy and hope.'
A pope for the future
But beyond that, there are some real-world geopolitical concerns to take into consideration. The Catholic Church is growing in Africa and Asia, both in the number of baptised faithful and vocations to the priesthood and women's religious orders. It is shrinking in traditionally Catholic bastions of Europe, with empty churches and the faithful formally leaving the church in places like Germany, many citing the abuse scandals.
'Asia is ripe for evangelisation and the harvest of vocations,' said the Rev. Robert Reyes, who studied in the seminary with Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, the Filipino prelate considered a contender to be the first Asian pope.
But should the pope necessarily reflect the new face of the Catholic Church, and inspire the faithful, especially in the parts of the world where the momentum of growth is already underway? Does it even matter?
Pope Francis was the first Latin American pope, and the region still counts the majority of the world's Catholics.
Indian Cardinal Oswald Gracias, the retired archbishop of Mumbai, said the church needs to become more Asian, culturally and spiritually.
The 'centre of gravity of the world is shifting toward Asia,' he said. 'The Asian church has much to give to the world.'
At 80, Gracias won't be participating in the conclave, but India has four cardinal-electors, and overall Asia counts 23, making it the second-biggest voting bloc after Europe, which has 53 (or likely 52, given that one is not expected to participate for health reasons).
One of the big geopolitical issues facing the cardinals is China and the plight of the estimated 12 million Chinese Catholics there.
Under Francis, the Vatican in 2018 inked a controversial agreement with Beijing governing the appointment of bishops, which many conservatives decried as a sellout of the underground Chinese Catholics who had remained loyal to Rome during decades of communist persecution.
The Vatican has defended the accord as the best deal it could get, but it remains to be seen if Francis' successor will keep the policy.
The church in Africa
According to Vatican statistics, Catholics represent 3.3 per cent of the population in Asia, but their numbers are growing, especially in terms of seminarians, as they are in Africa, where Catholics represent about 20 per cent of the population.
Catholics are 64 per cent of the population in the Americas, 40 per cent of Europe's population and 26 per cent of Oceania's population, according to Vatican statistics from 2023, the last available year.
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, the archbishop of Kinshasa, Congo, said he is in Rome to elect a pope for the world's 1.4 billion Catholics.
'I am not here for the Congo, I am not here for Africa, I am here for the universal church. That is our concern, the universal church,' he told reporters. 'When we are done, I will return to Kinshasa and I will put back on my archbishop of Kinshasa hat and the struggle continues.'
Cardinal Jean-Paul Vesco, the chatty French-born archbishop of Algiers, Algeria, lamented last week that there hadn't been enough time for the cardinals to get to know one another, since many of them had never met before and hail from 70 countries in the most geographically diverse conclave in history.
By this week, however, he said that any number of candidates were possible.
'It is what I call an artichoke heart,' he said. 'Every day, I say to myself, 'Ah! Oh my God! There we have it!''
The role of the Holy Spirit
For the cardinals, there is also the belief that they are guided by the Holy Spirit.
There is a famous quote attributed to then-Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger in 1997, in comments to a Bavarian television station.
The future Pope Benedict XVI said the Holy Spirit acted like a good educator in a conclave, allowing cardinals to freely choose a pope without dictating the precise candidate.
'Probably the only assurance he offers is that the thing cannot be totally ruined,' Ratzinger reportedly said. 'There are too many contrary instances of popes the Holy Spirit would obviously not have picked.'
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