US and Europe must reshape their bonds at this time of crisis
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For almost two decades, since Barack Obama's presidency, we have been reading about America's 'pivot to Asia.' This is a shift in Washington's focus from Europe and the Middle East to Asia, with the declared objective of countering China's growing influence. On the ground, it has not quite been visible. But this is changing. The US is on the path of shifting strategic resources from Europe to Asia. This is part of the agenda for next month's NATO Summit. This real change puts Europe and the transatlantic alliance on a new dynamic. How will European nations adapt to this change?
The US is now actively planning the reallocation of its military resources from Europe to the Indo-Pacific. Its objective is to counter China's growing military capabilities. This potential reduction of US troops in Europe will be discussed with its NATO allies. The US Department of Defense has enacted this shift and is increasing defense spending in the Indo-Pacific. It has significantly increased its budget allocations: in fiscal year 2023, Congress appropriated about $11.5 billion for the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, surpassing the initial request of $6.1 billion. In comparison, the European Deterrence Initiative received a budget allocation of about $3.7 billion for the same fiscal year, excluding funds for Ukraine.
The Pacific funding aims to enhance missile defense systems, radars and space sensors and increase military exercises and training in the region. Media reports have mentioned the modernization of bases in Guam, Okinawa and the Philippines. Moreover, the US is reinforcing strategic alliances such as AUKUS and the Quad, focusing on advanced capabilities and joint military exercises. A major upgrade to the US-Japan security alliance is also underway, enhancing command structures and crisis response coordination.
If we read between the lines of European officials, we notice a feeling of abandonment by the US or even, for some, betrayal
Khaled Abou Zahr
Needless to say, this major shift is taking place at a difficult time for Europe, as war still rages in Ukraine. If we read between the lines of European officials, we notice a feeling of abandonment by the US or even, for some, betrayal. This is an extremely exaggerated reaction and potentially dangerous for Europe and the US.
The situation resembles a father telling his pampered son that it is time for him to stand on his own feet. The main risk is the son seeing this as a rejection instead of a constructive action. The immediate reaction is often to prove something to his father, rather than to himself, showing that he can act responsibly. And what typically follows is a reckless and catastrophic misstep.
In this case, there is a real risk that, in trying to prove to the US that it can handle its own defense, Europe may rush into an escalation, rather than taking the time to build credible deterrence against Russia. Such a path threatens not only European stability but also the US' strategic repositioning in Asia, which remains a vital line of defense for Europe. This is what we are now seeing on the Ukrainian front: murmurs of escalation, for which NATO and Europe are dangerously unprepared.
Despite the mention of sending European troops in case of a lasting peace agreement — as UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer indicated — or the possibility of deploying postconflict 'reassurance forces,' as French President Emmanuel Macron stated, these declarations also seem to hold the possibility of sending troops should the conflict continue. While supporting Ukraine will remain a European priority in this scenario, such a decision would be a grave mistake at this stage. What emerges from this current process among European leaders is the wish to prove the US wrong, instead of taking the time to establish a real deterrence.
Achieving a unified 3.5 percent defense spending level across Europe continues to be a major challenge. This should be a priority
Khaled Abou Zahr
This is why it is important for the US and Europe — and for the future stability of the transatlantic alliance — to reshape their bonds and strategic objectives, especially during this time of crisis. To start with, it is positive to see European countries convinced of the need to increase their military spending, with some even taking their defense spending beyond the mooted target of 3.5 percent of gross domestic product.
This is the case for Poland, which spent 4.1 percent last year. Lithuania and Denmark have also moved closer, surpassing 3 percent this year. However, many others, especially in Southern Europe, struggle to meet even the current NATO target of 2 percent of GDP. In March, the European Commission launched its 'Readiness 2030' initiative to mobilize funding by 2029. Despite some progress, significant gaps remain and achieving a unified 3.5 percent defense spending level across Europe continues to be a major challenge. This should be a priority to support the ongoing transition.
It is also important to make sure there are no gaps in terms of defense and security capabilities. In light of the current situation in Ukraine, Europe will need to expand its military industrial capacity. The current production levels are insufficient to replenish stockpiles, maintain readiness and respond to any sudden conflict scenarios. This is the only way to establish Europe's strategic autonomy within NATO. And it is something Russia has already put in place.
The Europeans should also be aware of what is happening in the Indo-Pacific and have a strategy and an objective to engage with allies there. Japan, South Korea, Australia and India are all European allies, so this region should be within its focus.
Europe and the US must remain loyal to the transatlantic alliance despite the new challenges. But it is time to turn the page and Europe must gradually build and assert its deterrence capabilities. This requires Europe to avoid overreacting, while taking greater responsibility for its security and engaging more actively, including in the Indo-Pacific.
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