Netanyahu Passes the Begin Test

The world owes a debt of gratitude to Israel's prime minister—not Benjamin Netanyahu but Menachem Begin, who conceived Israel's nuclear nonproliferation strategy.
Begin served as Israel's first right-wing prime minister, from 1977 to 1983. Three years into his tenure, he learned that Saddam Hussein's Iraq was building a nuclear reactor. 'I am tormented by this,' Begin told Parliament. 'I see before my eyes my two young nephews murdered in the Holocaust, and all the children of Israel. Back then it was gas; now it's radioactive poison.'

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Yahoo

17 minutes ago

• Yahoo

World Waits As Trump Mulls Direct Military Action Against Iran

As the Israel-Iran war enters its seventh day, U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly edging closer to getting directly involved in the fight. Trump has approved plans to attack Iran, but has yet to give the final order, The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday afternoon. You can catch up on our coverage of Israel's Operation Rising Lion, designed to keep Iran from developing nuclear weapons and dismantle its long-range weapons capabilities, here. Trump 'told senior aides late Tuesday that he approved of attack plans for Iran, but was holding off on giving the final order to see if Tehran would abandon its nuclear program,' the publication stated, citing three people familiar with the deliberations. WSJ: President Trump has approved attack plans for Iran, but he is holding off on giving the final order to see if Iran will abandon its nuclear program — Amichai Stein (@AmichaiStein1) June 18, 2025 There's another reported reason why Trump has yet to give the order. He is worried about what would happen if the U.S. dropped 30,000-pound GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bunker buster bombs – America's most powerful conventional munition – on Iran's most heavily fortified nuclear facility, but failed to destroy it, Axios reported. 'Pentagon officials told Trump they're confident' that the MOPs would work…but it's not clear Trump was totally convinced,' Axios noted. As we have discussed many times in the past, even the mighty MOP might not be able to completely obliterate Iran's deeply buried and heavily protected nuclear facilities like Fordow. So far, the only aircraft certified to drop MOPs is the U.S. Air Force B-2A Spirit stealth bomber. Israel lacks the means strike Iran's deepest installations and is considering alternative ways of destroying the Fordow nuclear facility should Trump not order an attack. 'Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Ambassador to Washington Yechiel Leiter hinted in recent interviews that the Israel Defense Forces have options beyond just airstrikes,' Axios explained. 'One could be a risky commando raid. Israeli special forces conducted such an operation last September, albeit on a smaller scale, when they destroyed an underground missile factory in Syria by planting and detonating explosives.' Trump pressed aides on whether the bunker-buster plan to bomb Iran's Fordow nuclear facility will work. Pentagon officials told him they were confident it would. @MarcACaputo and I write for @axioshttps:// — Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) June 18, 2025 The War Zone for years has highlighted that Israel would likely be left to a high-risk ground operation if it were to attempt to destroy Iran's nuclear program without the help of U.S. airpower. I have been detailing exactly this reality for many years. Very risky operation, but it has literally the biggest stakes. Access is key and Israel has heavily degraded Iranian air defenses (not totally), but what happens on the ground is another story and, of course getting out. — Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) June 19, 2025 On Wednesday, Trump went public with his thinking, saying he won't really know until the last minute whether he will pull the trigger. 'I have ideas on what to do but I haven't made a final—I like to make the final decision one second before it's due,' he told reporters Wednesday. As we reported earlier on Wednesday, Trump has been more coy about whether he will attack Iran. 'I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I'm going to do.' Trump stated. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) commander Gen. Michael Kurilla met with Trump and presented him with military options regarding Iran, a source familiar with the details told The Jerusalem Post Wednesday. Kurilla himself supports joining Israeli strikes JUST IN: CENTCOM Commander Michael Kurilla met with Trump and presented military options on Iran. Kurilla supports a strike and is deeply familiar with both U.S. and Israeli plans. Sources say Trump would prefer a deal he calls a "surrender," but since that's unlikely, the… — GeoInsider (@InsiderGeo) June 18, 2025 Today, 12 U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptor stealth fighters landed at Lakenheath Air Base in England, reportedly bound for Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. It's the latest plus-up of U.S. forces that have seen an increase in Navy and Air Force assets. So far, however, the U.S. has only provided defensive support to Israel. American ground, sea, and air-based systems have been helping, albeit in a limited way, shoot down some of the hundreds of ballistic missiles and roughly 1,000 drones Iran has fired. To date, Iran has launched more than 400 ballistic missiles, with just over 20 hitting urban areas, causing casualties and extensive damage, according to a post on X by Times of Israel reporter Emanue Fabian. About two dozen people have been killed and more than 500 wounded. Iran has launched over 400 ballistic missiles and some 1,000 drones at Israel since the start of the conflict on Friday, according to fresh data from the the ballistic missiles, just over 20 impacted urban areas in Israel, causing casualties and extensive damage. 24… — Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) June 18, 2025 Still, the number of casualties is far lower than Israeli officials anticipated, Fabian noted. To defend against these missiles, Israel, with some help from the U.S., has been shooting at them. Israel's interception rate is 90%, with 30 of 370 Iranian missiles impacting Israel as of June 17, the Wall Street Journal reported. You can see the Raptors landing at Lakenheath in the following video made by a plane spotter there. Low-resolution satellite imagery posted on social media seems to indicate that the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar is nearly empty. The base is home to a diverse array of aircraft, including a rotating mix of bombers, fighters, refuelers, surveillance aircraft, helicopters, and other airframes. Earlier in the day, we contacted U.S. officials for comment, but they declined. Previously, the Navy moved assets out of Bahrain ahead of any possible Iranian attack. Very interesting: Low-res satellite images show Qatar's Al-Udeid Air Base nearly empty, with aircraft parking areas cleared.U.S., UK, and Qatari jets appear to have been relocated over fears of possible Iranian strikes. — Clash Report (@clashreport) June 18, 2025 Meanwhile, Israel and Iran continue to attack each other. The IDF said it repelled the most recent Iranian missile barrage while launching several more airstrikes. 'The IDF completed a series of strikes in Tehran: Over 20 military targets including nuclear weapons development project sites, and missile production sites belonging to the Iranian regime in the area of Tehran were targeted,' IDF claimed on Telegram. 'Over the past hours, 60 IAF fighter jets, with the precise direction of the IDF Intelligence Directorate, struck over 20 military targets in Tehran.' Israel's nearly complete air dominance has not only allowed its fighters freedom of action, but it has also enabled its aerial refueling jets to move farther east. This has providing fighters more gas to sustain longer operations and to lug much harder-hitting direct attack munitions to strike larger and more heavily fortified targets. So far, the IAF said it has conducted more than 600 aerial refuelings. That's a critical capability, considering Israel has struck targets 1,400 miles away. 600+ Aerial Refuelings in Middle Eastern SkiesSince the beginning of Operation Rising Lion, IAF fighter jets have struck Iranian regime targets deep in by aerial refuelers flying dozens of sorties, over 600 mid-air refuelings have been conducted to date.… — Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) June 18, 2025 Iran's state-run television channel was reportedly hacked, and instead of broadcasting its normal fare, it played anti-regime and pro-revolution messaging. The satellite signal for Iran's state-run television channel has reportedly been hacked, with all channels now playing anti-regime messaging and videos which call for freedom and revolution against the regime inside Iran. — OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) June 18, 2025 The U.S. Embassy in Israel has authorized some American diplomats and family members to leave and are now being flown out of the country by the U.S. military, two State Department officials familiar with the matter told ABC News. 'Given the ongoing situation and as part of the Embassy's authorized departure status, Mission personnel have begun departing Israel through a variety of means,' a State Department spokesperson said. The US earlier today evacuated some embassy personnel and family members from Israel on a US military aircraft, sources tell @jmhansler @kylieatwood @OrenCNN — Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) June 18, 2025 As Trump weighs his options, 'the foreign ministers of Germany, France and Britain plan to hold nuclear talks with their Iranian counterpart on Friday in Geneva,' a German diplomatic source told Reuters. 'The ministers will first meet with the European Union's top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, at Germany's permanent mission in Geneva before holding a joint meeting with the Iranian foreign minister, the source said.' In a message on X, Wall Street Journal reporter Laurence Normaan said 'the U.S. is in the picture' in these negotiations. I am told by a source, as @ReutersIran who scooped this said, that the U.S. is in the picture. This is not a purely E3/EU initiative. — laurence norman (@laurnorman) June 18, 2025 This is a developing story. Stay with The War Zone for updates. Contact the author: howard@

Yahoo

18 minutes ago

• Yahoo

Iran Just Used Ballistic Missiles With Cluster Warheads To Strike Israel

Iran fired at least one ballistic missile with a warhead containing multiple submunitions as part of a particularly destructive barrage on Israel earlier today. Ballistic missiles loaded with cluster munitions present additional complications for defending forces, especially when it comes to intercept attempts in the terminal phase of flight. Readers can first get caught up on recent developments in the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict in our reporting here. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Home Front Command says the warhead on the missile in question split open at an altitude of approximately 23,000 feet (seven kilometers) and released an estimated 20 submunitions, Emanuel Fabian of The Times of Israel posted on X. The submunitions, each of which contained some 5.5 pounds (2.5 kilograms) of explosives, were scattered across an area approximately 10 miles (16 kilometers) in diameter. Whether or not this is the first time Iran has employed a ballistic missile with a cluster munitions payload in strikes on Israel is unclear. The cluster bombs are estimated to have 2.5kg of explosives each. — Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) June 19, 2025 At the time of writing, the exact type of Iranian missile that carried the cluster munition warhead is unclear. Iranian media outlets linked to the country's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) did share a video showing the launch of a Khorramshahr-4 medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) earlier this morning, prompting speculation about its use. The Khorramshahr-4 is also sometimes called the Kheibar (not to be confused with Iran's unrelated Kheibar Shekan ballistic missile), which is a reference to a seventh-century victory by Muslim forces over Jewish tribes. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had also made a callback to that battle in the context of the current conflict in a social media post on Tuesday. However, the Khorramshahr-4/Kheibar footage that is now circulating widely online is from a test in 2023, and there do not appear to be explicit claims from Iran about its use. As of yet, no other evidence has emerged of Iranian forces having employed these missiles, with or without cluster warheads, in its retaliatory strikes on Israel. This is old testing footage released back in May 2023. — Fabian Hinz (@fab_hinz) June 19, 2025 The potential combat debut of the Khorramshahr-4/Kheibar is something experts and observers have been keeping an eye out for, as it is assessed to be one of the most capable longer-range ballistic missiles in Iran's inventory. The original Khorramshahr first emerged publicly in 2017, and it is assessed to be derived, at least in part, from the North Korean Hwasong-10, also known as the BM-25 Musudan. It is a liquid-fuel medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) with a claimed range of around 1,250 miles (2,000 kilometers). Iran has unveiled additional Khorramshahr variants since then, the most recent of which is the Khorramshahr-4/Kheibar, which made its public debut in 2023. At that time, Khorramshahr-4 was said to still have a maximum range of 1,250 miles (2,000 kilometers), but the possibility has been raised that it could have a longer reach. This is based in part on the underlying Hwasong-10/BM-25 design being an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), which the U.S. military has assessed in the past to have a maximum range in excess of 1,860 miles (3,000 kilometers). Khorramshahr variants could exchange some payload weight for extra range. Khorramshahr-4 is understood to have the heaviest payload of any of Iran's ballistic missiles, with it said to be able to carry a warhead weighing up to 3,300 pounds. Iran has also claimed in the past that Khorramshahr variants can carry multiple, smaller warheads. Video: #Iran successfully test-fires new ballistic missileDetails: — Press TV (@PressTV) September 23, 2017 In the past, Iran has also shown cluster munition warheads with designs that are in line, at least externally, with ones used on older ballistic missiles, especially variants and derivatives of its Shahab-3 liquid-fueled MRBM. The original Shahab-3 was based on North Korea's Nodong series of missiles, which were themselves developed from the Soviet Scud family. For the first time, a SUB-MUNITION from an Iranian BM was found in Israel. It is not yet clear on what type of missile it was installed. — Tal Inbar (@inbarspace) June 19, 2025 Khamenei is looking at a sub-munition for installation in missiles. Sub munitions were found today after an Iranian BM was hitting central Israel. — Tal Inbar (@inbarspace) June 19, 2025 '⁠Iranian media has for years advertised these sorts of cluster warheads as being able to 'rain' down bomblets against a wide target when dispersed at a certain altitude,' Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) think tank, told TWZ. Iran has explicitly said it has fired Emad and Ghadr MRBMs, both of which are evolutions of the Shahab-3 design, at Israel in the past week. There is also clear independent evidence of this, visible in post-strike wreckage, including from the strikes earlier today. Video of the 14th wave of the Iranian ballistic missiles launch toward Israel (Operation True Promise-3) today, June 19, 2025. — Mehdi H. (@mhmiranusa) June 19, 2025 Image on left is a liquid propellant rocket engine, almost certainly from a missile in the Shahab-3 family.A copy of the North Korean Nodong engine, it is closely related to the engine used in the Soviet Scud-B. — Michael Duitsman (@DuitsmanMS) June 19, 2025 Emad and Ghadr (sometimes also written Qadr) entered service in the mid-2010s and are both understood to be able to reach targets up to around 1,056 and 1,118 miles (1,700 to 1,800 kilometers) away. Iran has also developed an extended-range version of Ghadr that is said to have a maximum reach of 1,242 miles (2,000 kilometers). In addition, Emad and Ghadr both feature maneuverable re-entry vehicles that detach from the main body of the missile in the terminal phase of flight, but they are generally assessed to be primarily focused on improving accuracy rather than evading enemy intercept attempts. Any kind of maneuvering re-entry vehicle does still present at least some degree of additional complexity for defending forces. Adding cluster munition warheads to the mix would increase the potential of Iranian ballistic missiles scoring hits on area targets, and increase the overall area a single missile could target at once. On a basic practical level, adding this capability to missiles like Emad and Ghadr makes sense given the relatively low accuracy they are understood to currently offer when fitted with unitary warheads. '[Sam Lair] and I estimated the 'circular error probable' (CEP) of the most accurate Shahab-3 variant, the Emad, demonstrated in Iran's March 2024 missile strike [on Israel]. We estimated the CEP at ~1.2 km [just under three-quarters of a mile],' Jeffery Lewis, head of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, wrote in a post today on X. 'That means whatever a Shahab-3 hits, Iran was most likely aiming at something else.' .@sam_lair and I estimated the "circular error probable" (CEP) of the most accurate Shahab-3 variant, the Emad, demonstrated in Iran's March 2024 missile strike. We estimated the CEP at ~1.2 km. That means whatever a Shahab-3 hits, Iran was most likely aiming at something else. — Dr. Jeffrey Lewis (@ArmsControlWonk) June 19, 2025 'The warhead can likely be married with several [missile types], but to strike Israel they all have to be MRBMs,' FDD's Taleblu also told TWZ. 'In this, instance the missile body is less important than the warhead.' As noted, ballistic missiles loaded with cluster munitions present additional challenges for defenders, especially if they cannot be intercepted before their warheads split open at higher altitudes. A very high altitude opening would also mean a more indiscriminate strike, which could be used to try to inflict as much damage as possible over a very wide target area, like a city. Typical cluster munitions are designed to release their payload at a specific height to saturate a more defined zone. Layering ballistic missiles with cluster munition payloads in larger salvos with other types carrying unitary warheads might also help create a decoy-like effect to further overwhelm an opponent's defenses. With this in mind, while the specific circumstances are still unknown, it is worth noting that the interception rate during Iran's particularly destructive missile barrage on Israel this morning was notably lower than what had been seen in previous salvos. A variety of other factors beyond the inclusion of cluster munition warheads could have played a role, as well. Video from Tel Aviv — Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) June 19, 2025 As part of its retaliatory strikes on Israel so far, Iran also says it has been using other ballistic missiles, including Sejjil, Haj Qassem, Kheibar Shekan, and Fattah-1 types, that further add to the complexity of the overall threat picture. Sejjil is a two-stage MBRM that is among the heavier payload designs in Iranian inventory. The Haj Qassem, Kheibar Shekan, and Fattah-1 are all solid fuel MRBMs. Compared to liquid-fueled ballistic missiles, solid-fuel types are generally faster and easier to launch, as well as safer to handle, reducing the total available time an opponent has to spot and preemptively target them before launch. Authorities in Iran have also explicitly touted these three missiles, all of which were unveiled in the past five years, as offering high terminal maneuverability and/or high peak speeds specifically intended to reduce their vulnerability to missile defense interceptors. The emergence of the Fattah-1 in 2023 was already seen as particularly significant, despite Iran's dubious description of it as a 'hypersonic' weapon. IRGC announces that the ballistic missiles used tonight in 12th wave of the True-Promise-3 operation were from the type Sejjil. — Mehdi H. (@mhmiranusa) June 18, 2025 New online analysis: 'Israel's attack and the limits of Iran's missile strategy' — Fabian Hinz (@fab_hinz) June 18, 2025 'To put the significance of the Fattah in context, it is better to put aside Iran's labeling of the system as a 'hypersonic missile' as the term can obscure more than it illuminates. Many surface-to-surface missiles achieve speeds within the atmosphere that cross the hypersonic threshold, that is greater than Mach 5,' Fabian Hinz, a research fellow for Defense and Military Analysis at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, wrote in 2023. 'It is not speed alone that distinguishes the two main types of weapons known as hypersonic weapons – hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs) and hypersonic cruise missiles (HCMs) – but also the ability to manoeuvre significantly during atmospheric flight, including at considerable cross-range.' These are points TWZ regularly highlights, and you can read more about the unique capabilities that highly maneuverable hypersonic weapons offer here. 'Fattah is neither of these two classes of weapon, but a medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM),' but instead has a 'second stage [that] incorporates the warhead, aerodynamic controls and a small solid-propellant motor with a moveable nozzle for thrust vector control (TVC)' that 'resembles a maneuverable re-entry vehicle (MaRV) rather than a HGV.,' Hinz continued. 'Both MaRVs and HGVs are capable of atmospheric maneuvering at hypersonic speeds. A HGV's higher aerodynamic lift characteristics allow it to maneuver during mid-course flight, while a MaRV only does so for a short part of the flight in the terminal phase.' 'Iran attempted to overcome this limitation by mating a small TVC rocket motor to a MaRV, enabling exo-atmospheric maneuvering,' he added. 'The IRGC maintains that this arrangement will help the missile evade both endo- and exo-atmospheric interceptors. It also potentially offers improved accuracy over longer ranges.' Amid all of this, worrisome questions are already starting to emerge about the stocks of various types of anti-missile interceptors available to Israel, as well as U.S. forces in and around the country that have been helping to shoot down incoming Iranian threats since last week. As TWZ wrote in some of our previous coverage of the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict: 'The situation is something of a war of attrition over great distances. The question is will missile interceptors run out before Iran's ability to launch its own missiles does? At this time it seems Iran is on the downside of that equation, but midcourse intercept capabilities are especially limited in quantity and degradation of that defensive layer would put more stress on the terminal defense layer, even if fewer missiles are fired.' At the same time, Israel looks to have had significant success just in the past week in degrading Iranian ballistic missile capabilities. On Monday, Israel claimed it had destroyed a third of Iran's long-range surface-to-surface missile launchers. Though Iran continues to fire ballistic missiles at Israel, and they continue to cause casualties and physical damage, the size and frequency of the salvos have been significantly smaller than what many expected to see in the event of the conflict that has now erupted. Approx. 25 fighter jets struck over 40 missile infrastructure components directed toward Israel this morning, including missile storage sites and military operatives of the Iranian Regime. A loaded and ready-to-launch "Emad" missile launcher was also struck overnight. — Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) June 18, 2025 What did the IAF accomplish in Iran last night? 20+ surface-to-surface missiles were dismantled minutes before they were to be launched toward Israel's home front. Approx. 100 military targets were struck in Isfahan, central Iran. Around 50 fighter jets and aircraft… — Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) June 16, 2025 Iran is also likely to be keeping at least some stockpiles of ballistic missiles, including more capable types, in reserve should the conflict further expand in scale and cope, especially if the U.S. military were to take a more direct offensive role. More capable missiles may be increasingly required for strikes on Israel as Iranian forces are compelled to move further east to reduce their vulnerability to IDF strikes. Iran's new use of ballistic missiles loaded with cluster munitions underscores that it still has capabilities that have not yet been fully brought to bear that could add new dimensions to the ongoing conflict. Howard Altman contributed to this story. Contact the author: joe@

The Hill

18 minutes ago

• The Hill

How the AP decided to refer to the conflict between Israel and Iran as a war

The Associated Press is calling the current conflict between Israel and Iran a war, given the scope, intensity and duration of military activities on both sides. Other news organizations also have decided to refer to the conflict as a war, while some are still sticking with words such as 'conflict' or 'fighting.' When a conflict in the world spills into military action, it's important to use the correct terms to describe it. Sometimes a one-sided attack occurs without further action, or a conflict bubbles up and then ends quickly Using 'war' widely to describe these kinds of situations can diminish the word's importance. Then, when actual war breaks out, people might not understand its significance. The Merriam-Webster definition of war is quite broad: 'A state of usually open and declared armed hostile conflict between states or nations,' or 'a state of hostility, conflict, or antagonism.' The fight between Israel and Iran meets those criteria, though neither has officially declared war. Since Israel launched an air campaign targeting Iran's military and nuclear program, there has been a significant escalation in the conflict. Iran has launched hundreds of missiles and drones into Israel. Israel has assassinated high-level Iranian officials; targeted the country's infrastructure; called for hundreds of thousands of residents to evacuate Iran's capital, Tehran; and said it will continue its offensive. The AP provided guidance on the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas war in the days and weeks after fighting began. In both cases, editors considered the number of casualties, the intensity of fighting, the involvement of each party, and what each country was calling the conflict. In both cases, the AP started using the word 'war' to describe the conflicts. AP capitalizes the word 'war' only as part of a formal name, which as of now does not exist. Decisions on how AP uses the term 'war' happen in real time. AP's news leaders and standards editors will continue to monitor developments to see whether changes are necessary. At this point, the level of fighting constitutes the countries being at war, no matter what happens next. If fighting were to end soon, AP would continue saying the countries had been at war. News leaders would consider whether the level of fighting at that time amounted to being at war. If other countries intervene in the war, AP would describe the intervention as military action in support of Israel or military support of Iran. AP would also consider whether the action constitutes those countries also being at war.