The Week That Was, The Week Ahead: Macro & Markets, June 22, 2025
Everything to Know about Macro and Markets
Stocks closed mixed on Friday amid hopes for de-escalation in the Middle East, still clocking in a second straight week in the red. Despite eking out a small increase on the last trading day of the holiday-shortened week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) ended the weekly session down 1.77%, returning to a year-to-date loss. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (SPX) fell 1.28%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 (NDX) lost 1.31% for the week, with both benchmarks still in the green for the year.
Confident Investing Starts Here:
The Trade War and The Real War
Stock markets were moved by geopolitical news during the week, with the Federal Reserve's policy meeting adding a significant macro highlight. The week opened positively as fears of all-out Mideast war eased, after which the rally crumbled – and crude resumed its climb – as Tehran threatened escalation and former President Donald Trump demanded 'total surrender.'
After Thursday's Juneteenth closure, investors returned on Friday hoping for the best – but stocks lost ground throughout the day on another bout of trade news. The declines were led by semiconductor and chip equipment stocks, which fell after The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. plans to cancel the blanket waivers that allow international chip companies like Samsung, SK Hynix , and TSMC to easily send American chipmaking equipment to their factories in China.
The possibility of new restrictions hit risk appetite that had just begun recovering on signs that Trump is giving a chance to diplomacy vis-à-vis Tehran, and after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he sees a rate cut in July, adding that the inflation hit from tariffs is likely to be short-lived.
The Rock and The Hard Place
Wednesday's Fed interest rate decision brought no surprises, as the central bank kept rates unchanged, noting that uncertainty 'has diminished but remains elevated.' Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that 'the economy is in a solid position,' and the Fed is well-positioned to provide a timely response to any economic developments.
The Fed's 'Dot Plot' also remained unchanged, as policymakers still expect two rate cuts this year. However, expectations for inflation and unemployment by the end of 2025 both rose, while projections for GDP growth declined, underscoring the Fed's difficulties in establishing monetary policy amid contrasting economic crosscurrents and elevated geopolitical risks.
Meanwhile, economic data appear to be confirming the Fed's view of a gradually softening economy. Retail sales fell for a second straight month in May, declining by the most so far in 2025 and marking the first back-to-back monthly decline since the end of 2023. Industrial production declined again, and the NAHB homebuilder confidence index slumped to its lowest since the end of 2022 – while new home construction dropped to the lowest level since 2020.
This and other data, coupled with the Fed's updated economic projections, might keep 'stagflation' in the headlines. Sunday's news that the U.S. had struck Iran's nuclear facilities set the stage for a further rise in oil prices, adding short-term inflationary pressures and weighing on investor risk appetite. Markets remain wedged between escalating global risk and weakening fundamentals – with Fed policy constrained, volatility high, and few near-term catalysts to shift sentiment decisively.
Stocks That Made the News
▣ Chip equipment makers Lam Research (LRCX), KLA Corp (KLAC), and Applied Materials (AMAT) – along with chipmakers including Nvidia (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), and TSMC (TSM) – slumped on the report that the Commerce Department is mulling plans to make it more difficult for U.S. semiconductor equipment to be shipped to Chinese fabs.
▣ Accenture (ACN) shares tumbled by more than 9% on the week after it reported weaker-than-expected bookings for its fiscal third quarter. Although the professional services giant beat on sales and profits, which were boosted by demand related to AI services, the earnings call reflected hesitancy regarding the near-term outlook due to the uncertain global economic backdrop.
▣ Kroger (KR) shares surged by nearly 9% on better-than-expected profit and identical sales growth in fiscal Q1. The operator of the largest chain of traditional grocery stores in the U.S. boosted its full-year identical sales growth forecast and maintained its other guidance.
▣ Coinbase Global (COIN) was by far the best S&P 500 performer last week, clocking in over 20% gain. The shares of the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange operator soared after the Senate passed the GENIUS Act, providing a regulatory framework for companies issuing stablecoins and introducing guardrails to prevent the collapse of the digital assets.
The Q1 2025 earnings season is over, but several notable earnings releases are still scheduled for the next few days. These include Carnival (CCL), FedEx (FDX), TD SYNNEX (SNX), Micron (MU), General Mills (GIS), Paychex (PAYX), and Nike (NKE).
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Wall Street Journal
21 minutes ago
- Wall Street Journal
Trump's ‘Big, Beautiful' Bill Gets Slimmed Down in Senate
WASHINGTON—President Trump's 'big, beautiful' bill is getting smaller just as Republicans head into a crucial week, after the Senate's rules arbiter decided several controversial provisions don't qualify for the special procedure the GOP is using to bypass Democratic opposition. The tax-and-spending megabill centers on extending Trump's 2017 tax cuts, delivering on the spirit of his campaign promises to eliminate taxes on tips and overtime, and providing big lump sums of money for border security and defense. Those new costs are partially offset by spending cuts, in particular to Medicaid.
Yahoo
22 minutes ago
- Yahoo
There Are 6 Tiers Of Wealth For Retirees — Are In The Top 1% Or Just Upper Middle Class?
How much money does it take to retire comfortably? Using the Federal Reserve's 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances, retirees' net worth has been split into six tiers, offering a sharp snapshot of financial health for those aged 65 and up. The Fed doesn't list these tiers outright, but the data—based on percentiles—is rich enough to draw a clear picture. Net worth is calculated by adding up everything someone owns—homes, retirement accounts, investments—and subtracting debts like mortgages or credit cards. This survey is done every three years, and since the last update was in 2022, the insights here will remain the benchmark until new data arrives, most likely in late 2026. Don't Miss: Maker of the $60,000 foldable home has 3 factory buildings, 600+ houses built, and big plans to solve housing — Peter Thiel turned $1,700 into $5 billion—now accredited investors are eyeing this software company with similar breakout potential. Learn how you can About one in four retirees falls here, with net worth under $50,000. Many rely primarily on Social Security, including the average $1,900 monthly benefit. There is often little in savings, and emergency needs—like medical bills—can quickly drain limited resources. Next up, retirees with net worth between $50,000 and the median $410,000. Homeowners in this group may be debt-free or carry manageable mortgages. With cautious planning, they often stretch Social Security and modest savings to make ends meet, though luxury remains out of reach. Between the median and the 80th percentile, retirees in this bracket likely hold paid-off homes and healthy investments. They have enough flexibility for travel, health surprises, and occasional extras without jeopardizing their budget. Trending: Maximize saving for your retirement and cut down on taxes: . Here, retirees enjoy real financial comfort. Investments are diversified and managed. Philanthropy, home upgrades, and travel are doable. They sleep better knowing unexpected costs are unlikely to derail their plans. These retirees sit in the 90th to 99th percentile. Their wealth allows for complex financial strategies—multi-generational planning, private wealth advisors, long-term care budgets. They've often built this through long-term investing or real estate gains. At the pinnacle, just 1% of retiree households exceed $13.7 million in net worth. This group enjoys complete financial choice—most continue working by choice, not necessity—and can focus on legacy, impact, or passion projects. Americans often underestimate the challenge. The Northwestern Mutual 2025 Planning & Progress Study found the average person believes they need $1.26 million to retire well. Yet data shows most households age 65 to 74 hold under $410,000. Only about one in ten have saved more than ten times their depends on more than just a number. Are you planning to renovate your home—or downsize? Do you see yourself spending retirement traveling the country, or helping raise grandkids? Will you pay off a mortgage, start a small business, or take on part-time work for fun and flexibility? Your lifestyle matters just as much as your balance sheet. Two retirees with the same net worth might live very different lives depending on how they spend, where they live, and how much support they have. One might be sipping coffee in a paid-off condo while the other is juggling property taxes, adult children, and a second car payment. The six wealth tiers can give a sense of where you stand—but the real question is how you'll use what you have. The number alone won't define your retirement. What you do with it will. Read Next: Can you guess how many retire with a $5,000,000 nest egg? . Image: Shutterstock UNLOCKED: 5 NEW TRADES EVERY WEEK. Click now to get top trade ideas daily, plus unlimited access to cutting-edge tools and strategies to gain an edge in the markets. Get the latest stock analysis from Benzinga? APPLE (AAPL): Free Stock Analysis Report TESLA (TSLA): Free Stock Analysis Report This article There Are 6 Tiers Of Wealth For Retirees — Are In The Top 1% Or Just Upper Middle Class? originally appeared on © 2025 Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Yahoo
24 minutes ago
- Yahoo
America's economy faces a potential war shock: Surging oil prices
The American economy faces the unwelcome prospect of reignited inflation after the United States launched strikes on three nuclear facilities in Iran. High oil and gas prices are a near certainty, experts say. The big question now: How long will the fossil fuels price spike last? Oil prices are expected to rise by about $5 per barrel when markets open Sunday night, according to experts. 'We are looking at $80 oil on the open,' said Andy Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates. US oil hasn't closed above $80 a barrel since January and has largely hovered between $60 and $75 a barrel since August 2024. Relatively tame oil prices have lowered gas prices to below $3 a gallon in many parts of the country, a major source of price relief for inflation-weary consumers. It's unclear if any major spike in oil prices will be sustained for a long period. Oil prices have risen about 10% since Israel's surprise attack on June 13 and then fell on Friday after US President Donald Trump announced a two-week deadline on whether to strike Iran. 'One shouldn't necessarily assume that just because the price of oil goes up, it's going to stay there. It doesn't,' said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for the accounting firm RSM. The direction oil prices take is likely to depend on whether Iran's parliament decides to block the Strait of Hormuz, a key trade route that accounts for about 20% of the world's crude oil. On Sunday, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country has 'a variety of options' when deciding how to respond to the US attacks and a prominent adviser to Iran's supreme leader has already called for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Bob McNally, president of consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group and former energy adviser to President George W. Bush, said that should Iran cut off the world's oil supply by closing the strait it would risk more military force from the United States and its allies. Iran could also attack infrastructure in the Persian Gulf that treats and exports oil and gas. 'It's possible they will decide the only thing that can dissuade President Trump is the fear of an oil price spike,' he said. 'They have to actually create that fear.' Appearing Sunday on Fox News, Secretary of State Marco Rubio called on China to prevent Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz, adding that closing it would do more damage to other economies than the US economy. China buys a third of all oil that comes from the Persian Gulf, while the United States buys less than 3%. 'I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them about that, because they heavily depend on the Straits of Hormuz for their oil,' Rubio said. Rubio added that closing the strait would hurt other countries' economies more than the US economy. Meanwhile, American consumers may soon feel a price shock at the pump. 'It takes five days or so for stations to pass along the prices they see in one day. If oil markets do surge today and then tomorrow, it could start showing up at the pump in a matter of hours,' said Patrick De Haan, vice president of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, a fuel tracking platform. According to Lipow, should the Strait of Hormuz be affected, the price of oil could rise to $100 a barrel, which would raise gas and diesel prices by about 75 cents per gallon from recent levels. Meanwhile, US trade policies combined with the war with Iran 'strongly suggest inflation will be moving faster and higher over the next 90 days,' according to Brusuelas. Many mainstream economists argue that the low inflation of the spring represents a calm before the summer storm, when they expect prices to rise because of Trump's tariffs. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
