Indo-US posturing on China via Bangladesh?
The writer heads the independent Centre for Research and Security Studies, Islamabad. He is currently a visiting Research Fellow at Fudan University, Shanghai
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A Zee News report on May 29 suggests the intentions of Indian and US security establishments in the coming months. It also points to the possible deterioration of Sino-Indian relations and a spike in regional tensions due to the emergence of a so-called "Bangladesh-Pakistan-Afghanistan-Iran -China strategic axis".
India deployed Rafale fighter jets and the Russian-made S-400 air defence system at the Siliguri Corridor, a strategically important stretch, due to threats from Dhaka, according to Zee News.
US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth's remarks at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on May 30 emphasised "the real and imminent threat China poses". He said Beijing is "credibly preparing to potentially use military force to alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific" and that the US is reorienting toward deterring aggression by communist China.
Both developments are centred around China. Let's examine the US posturing towards China.
The US establishment focuses on the "ascendent China challenge", projecting military build-up and war-games as aggressive Chinese posturing. However, history contradicts this.
Has China ever invaded another country or used deadly ammunition on foreign territories? Has it occupied an alien country like the US did in Afghanistan, Iraq or Libya? Has Beijing ever quietly endorsed or condoned a genocide, like Israel's repression against Palestinians?
Beijing got back Hong Kong after a century of negotiations with the British and is following the same approach for Taiwan, which it considers part of One China. For President Xi Jinping, reuniting Taiwan with the mainland is a mission his generation is committed to achieving.
Raising alarm over war drills, a legitimate right of sovereign nations, contradicts US-NATO war games, including in the South China Sea. The latest example was the largest joint military exercises between the US and the Philippines in April, involving 17,000 troops to simulate war with China over Taiwan and the South China Sea. Why would China's marine patrols and exercises be questioned without supporting evidence?
After challenging Pakistan and losing multiple aircraft on May 7, New Delhi is now deflecting criticism by bullying Bangladesh in indirect messaging to China.
A Zee News report as well as a backgrounder by The New Indian Express reflect the Indian establishment's current focus on Beijing and Dhaka. It noted that the interim government in Dhaka is reportedly leaning toward China and Pakistan, which could reshape India's strategic balance in the east. The report also detailed the reinforcement of the 22km Siliguri Corridor, India's only land link to its northeastern states, which sits at the crossroads of Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan and China.
The Siliguri Corridor in West Bengal connects India's mainland to its northeastern states, known as the Seven Sisters. Any disruption in this narrow strip between Nepal and Bangladesh would sever India's northeastern states from the rest of India.
The deployment of the S-400 air defence system and a Rafale squadron at Hashimara Airbase is more than just tactical positioning; it's a strategic warning. India's military posturing at the Siliguri Corridor is a show of strength and a declaration that any misadventure from the north (China) or east (Bangladesh) will be met with full force," highlights The New Indian Express report.
India's overreaction began after Bangladesh's interim leader Dr Muhammad Yunus referred to India's northeast as landlocked during his China visit in March. New Delhi promptly restricted certain Bangladeshi exports through its entry points, exempting Nepal and Bhutan though, signaling that undermining India's strategic autonomy in the region has economic and political consequences.
The Indian sensitivity primarily stems from Sheikh Hasina's rise to power in August 2024, which diminished India's clout gained over the past two decades.
The growing Dhaka-Beijing proximity causes anxiety in New Delhi, especially after the Yunus administration moved the $1 billion Teesta River project to China and decided to revive the 1931 Lalmonirhat airbase .This airbase is near the Siliguri Corridor, which China has also promised to rehabilitate.
The Hegseth speech and Indian defence reinforcement at the Siliguri Corridor are both directed at China. Even though the US and India may disagree over tariffs, China will likely force both into a convenient embrace after the recent strategic shift in the region. Both countries may use the feared China-Bangladesh-Sri Lanka-Pakistan-Afghanistan-Iran axis as a justification for attacking China and undermining its interests. However, this may hurt the combined interests of India and the US more than China's, which has built a vast community across Africa and Asia through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) rather than intimidation and military interventions.
What we need in these times of turbulence across the globe, and the disruption that an aggressive Donald Trump has caused, is intensified mutually beneficial cooperation instead of artificially drummed-up threats to unjustifiably demonise target countries.
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