Former Cleveland Fed President Mester: The Fed should be waiting right now
Former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the challenges facing the Federal Reserve, state of the economy, rate path outlook, and more.
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Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Oil up, but stocks look to slide after U.S. attacks on Iran
Oil up, but stocks look to slide after U.S. attacks on Iran originally appeared on TheStreet. The U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities on Saturday changes the focus of what's ahead for the U.S. economy in the last full week of June. Because everyone is waiting to see what Iran will do, other than fire missiles on Israel. That's what happened late Saturday. 💵💰💰💵 The three biggest questions a day later: How will energy and stock markets react? Does Iran still have enough enriched uranium to make and deploy a small nuclear weapon? Will Iran move to block the ships from passing from the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz into global shipping lanes? Outside geopolitics, economic events coming up include Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony before Congress on Tuesday and an important inflation nuclear question is on the table because U.S. officials weren't sure Sunday if the attacks on facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan actually destroyed nuclear materials. Vice President J.D. Vance, in fact, suggested that Iran's nuclear stock pile is still intact. If that's the case, it's possible Iran could assemble a first-generation weapon. That would be as powerful as the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, Robert Pape of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats told MSNBC's Alex Witt on Sunday. Not having this awful idea become reality depends on cooler heads prevailing. A key issue: If Iran is willing to discuss destroying or otherwise ceding control its nuclear development efforts. The Trump Administration is threatening more attacks if Iran rejects the demand. Blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which 25% of the world's crude oil passes — headed mostly to China, India and Asia — will send global oil prices surging and, ultimately, will boost gasoline prices in the United States and elsewhere. Stocks and bonds also would slump. Crude oil futures in New York opened up nearly $3 a barrel, then fell back quickly. At 7:30 p.m. EDT, crude was was up $2.12 to $75.99. Brent crude, the global benchmark, jumped to as high as $81.40, then fell back to $79.20 per barrel, up $2.19 Crude oil settled at $73.84 a barrel on Friday, up 34 cents. or 1.2%, from Thursday and up 21.5% so far in June. AAA's daily report on gasoline prices put the U.S. average at $3.218 a gallon, down slightly from Saturday's $3.129. Stock index futures were lower in early trading Sunday with S&P 500 futures off 28 points to 5,990. Futures based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down just 184 points to 42,333. Nasdaq-100 futures had fallen 137 points to 21,710. Stocks overall were flat last week even as global tensions heated up. Some defense-oriented stocks slipped on Friday. Palantir Technologies () was off 2% to $137.30. Lockheed Martin () , however, was up 0.4% to $470.56. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who is always verbally battered by President Trump, will testify before the Congress twice this week. The questions almost certainly focus on the Iran situation and its impact on the economy. He will also have to explain why the Fed is so stubborn about NOT cutting its key federal funds rate. The Fed decided last week to leave its federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%. One Fed governor, Christopher Waller, who voted in support of holding rates steady, thinks a rate cut could come in July. Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, thinks the Fed will have better information by September. The federal funds rate mostly affects short-term rates. Bond yields influence rates on, say, home mortgages and auto loans. The 30-year mortgage rate was just under 7% on Friday. Powell's first appearance is before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday and the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday. More Economic Analysis: Federal Reserve prepares strong message on long-term interest rates Massive city workers union approves strike Analyst makes bold call on stocks, bonds, and gold The most important economic report this coming week is the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), due Friday from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. This is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation rate. The index for May is expected to show a 2.3% year-over-year index. The core index, stripping out food and energy, is expected to rise 2.6%, up slightly from April. The inflation rate is still the lowest since March 2021, Barrons says. Four reports come this week that will help clarify the condition of the housing market. Existing homes sales for May, due Monday from the National Association of Realtors. Most estimates are around 4.1 million units on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis, up From April's 4 million rate. S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, due Tuesday from Standard & Poor's. New-home sales, due Wednesday from the Commerce Department. Pending home sales, due Thursday from the National Association of Home Builders. S&P Global reports its flash purchasing manager index reports for June. These measure what manufacturing and services companies are actually buying. The Conference Board comes out with its monthly Consumer Confidence Index report for June Tuesday morning It may show a slight gain because the data were collected as stocks were rallying after April's stock-market slump. The University of Michigan offers its revised Consumer Sentiment Index report on Friday. Its early version suggested consumers were a touch less worried and cited the market up, but stocks look to slide after U.S. attacks on Iran first appeared on TheStreet on Jun 23, 2025 This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jun 23, 2025, where it first appeared. Sign in to access your portfolio
CNBC
2 hours ago
- CNBC
Gold subdued as dollar gains, markets await Iran response
Gold prices edged lower on Monday as investors favored the dollar following the U.S. attack on key Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend, with markets closely watching for Iran's response. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $3,362.29 an ounce, as of 0341 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.2% to $3,378. "The US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities resulted in the dollar receiving safe haven buying flows in the currency market," KCM Trade Chief Market Analyst Tim Waterer said. "This USD uptick had pegged gold back and caused an uncharacteristically subdued performance from the precious metal despite risks stemming from the conflict." The dollar rose 0.2% against its rivals, making gold more expensive for other currency holders. USD/ U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday raised the question of a regime change in Iran following U.S. strikes against key military sites over the weekend, as senior officials in his administration warned Tehran against retaliation. Iran vowed to defend itself a day after the U.S. dropped 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs onto the mountain above Iran's Fordow nuclear site. Meanwhile, Iran and Israel continued to trade volleys of missile attacks. An Israeli military spokesperson said Israeli fighter jets had struck military targets in western Iran. Shares slipped in Asia on Monday and oil prices briefly hit five-month highs, but there were no signs of panic selling across markets. The Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy report to Congress, released on Friday, said U.S. inflation remained somewhat elevated and the labor market was solid. On the technical front, spot gold may retest support at $3,348 per ounce, a break below could open the way toward $3,324, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao. Elsewhere, spot silver rose 0.2% at $36.07 per ounce, platinum edged 0.1% higher to $1,269.17, while palladium gained 0.2% to $1,046.62.
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Yahoo
EUR/USD: How to Trade the Pair With Fed Decision Imminent Tomorrow
Market reactions remain muted despite Middle East tensions, with volatility limited outside of oil. Focus shifts to Fed as rate cut expectations hinge on data and tariff war impact. EUR/USD eyes a breakout above 1.16, supported by dovish Fed signals and weakening US outlook. Looking for actionable trade ideas to navigate market volatility? For a limited time, get access to InvestingPro's AI-selected stock winners for under $7/month. The sharp rise in tensions between Israel and Iran was expected to create massive turmoil in global financial markets. But apart from oil, both stock and currency markets have shown only limited volatility. If Iran does not go as far as closing the Strait of Hormuz, investors will likely turn their attention to this week's Fed meeting. The general expectation is that interest rates will remain unchanged, so markets will look for any signals about what the Fed might do in the coming months. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair is still moving upward. If the Fed takes a more dovish tone on Wednesday, the euro could rise past $1.16 and hold above that level. Based on current market expectations, the Federal Reserve is likely to make its next interest rate cut in September. This is later than what was expected in the first quarter. The delay is mainly due to uncertainty caused by the growing trade tensions, as the US has effectively started a broad tariff war. However, some key economic indicators suggest that the Fed could ease rates sooner. One such sign is the recent GDP data, which showed a quarterly decline for the first time since November 2022. If upcoming data also shows a decline, the Fed will find it hard to ignore the negative trend. As for inflation, the current range of 2–2.5% does not rule out the possibility of rate cuts—especially since inflation has come in below expectations for four straight months. This suggests that if not for the ongoing tariff war, interest rates in the US would likely be lower. As a result, any news about a possible trade deal—especially with China or the EU—could put downward pressure on the US dollar. At the same time, the Fed is also watching the labor market closely. As long as job data remains strong and does not show a sharp decline, the Fed has little reason to rush into further rate cuts. Meanwhile, in the eurozone, the cycle of monetary easing is still in progress. However, early signs suggest that this cycle may be nearing its end. This is reflected in recent comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde and concerns that inflation could rise again if the EU and the US fail to reach a satisfactory trade agreement. In recent days, buyers have been pushing against the resistance level around 1.16. So far, sellers have managed to hold the line, but if the upward pressure continues, a breakout above this level seems likely given the current macroeconomic conditions. If the 1.16 resistance is broken, it could open the path toward much higher levels, with a technical target potentially above 1.23. However, reaching that level would depend on key factors that could weaken the US dollar, such as progress on trade deals or signs of a softer Fed stance. *** If you've been on the hunt for professional-grade investing tools to take your investment strategy to the next level, here's your chance. For a very limited time only, you can get full access to InvestingPro - our all-in-one investing platform - for just under $7 a month using this link. That means immediate access to insightful tools like: ProPicks AI: AI-selected stock winners with a proven track record. InvestingPro Fair Value: Instantly find out if a stock is underpriced or overvalued. Advanced Stock Screener: Search for the best stocks based on hundreds of selected filters and criteria. Top Ideas: See what stocks billionaire investors such as Warren Buffett, Michael Burry, and George Soros are buying. This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk belongs to the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services. Related articles EUR/USD: How to Trade the Pair With Fed Decision Imminent Tomorrow US Dollar: Can Rising Geopolitical Tensions Spark a Trend Reversal? USD/JPY Wavers Near Major Support, BoJ's Potential Rate Hold Could Spur Volatility
