Amid alliance buzz, why a shrunken Raj Thackeray may not be of much help to BJP, Sena (UBT) in civic polls

With the much-delayed Maharashtra local body elections approaching – after the Supreme Court in early May directed the State Election Commission (SEC) to notify the polls – Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) chief Raj Thackeray is becoming a much sought after figure in state politics.
Amid buzz of a reunion with his estranged cousin and Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray nearly two decades after Raj Thackeray quit the then undivided Shiv Sena in 2006, the MNS chief indicated that the deal was not done when he had a surprise meeting with Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis on June 12.
As the Sena (UBT) watches nervously, the BJP has indicated it's open to the MNS too, with Raj a strategic disruptor who draws his support from the same Marathi-speaking electorate that forms Uddhav's core voter base.
With Raj's political career defined by frequent shifts in allegiance, and mixed signals to opponents as well as allies, these meetings have led to speculation of a political realignment ahead of the crucial civic body polls in Maharashtra. These polls, to be held nearly three years after the tenures of all the previous bodies came to an end, are the first since the splits in the Shiv Sena and NCP.
While this adds to the uncertainty of all parties, the political impact of the MNS itself has been limited since it contested its first Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in 2009. In the Lok Sabha polls, the MNS is yet to win a seat and its vote share peaked at 4.1% in its debut election. In the Assembly elections, the MNS got off to a good start, winning 13 seats and 5.7% vote share. But its fortunes have since dwindled, with the party winning just one seat in 2014 and 2019 each, before dropping to zero in 2024.
Still, with Raj's push for regional identity resonating with the urban Marathi electorate, the MNS has fared better in the three municipal corporation elections it has contested so far.
In the first set of municipal corporation elections contested by the MNS between 2006 and 2009, the party won 45 seats across the 12 corporations where it contested, with an overall vote share of 5.87%. There are a total 2,118 seats spread across 22 corporations in Maharashtra.
The MNS's best performances came in Nashik, where the party won 12 of the total 108 seats with a vote share of 12.97%, followed by wins in eight of Pune's 144 seats with a 7.74% vote share. The MNS recorded its second-highest vote share in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) at 10.43%, which was enough to win seven of its 228 seats.
The undivided Shiv Sena and Congress were by far the dominant parties in Nashik and Brihanmumbai in terms of seats, while the undivided NCP was in pole position in Pune. In Nashik and Brihanmumbai, incidentally, the MNS's vote share exceeded that of the BJP's, at 10.44% and 8.69%, respectively, and was not far behind the NCP's 11.29% in Brihanmumbai.
Of the nine corporations that fall within the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), the MNS managed to win seats in Brihanmumbai, Thane and Mira-Bhayandar.
An analysis of the finishing positions in the municipal corporation polls held from 2006 to 2009 shows that in the 45 total seats won by the MNS, the Shiv Sena and the NCP were its main rivals, finishing as the runners-up in 15 and 13 seats, respectively.
However, the MNS placed second in a total 63 seats, of which 25 were won by the Shiv Sena, 13 by the Congress, 12 by the NCP and seven by the BJP.
Going by the seat tallies in these elections, the MNS and Shiv Sena would have benefited most from an alliance, though their combined seats and vote shares would still not have been enough to seal outright majorities. A party was able to win a majority on its own in just two corporations – Navi Mumbai and Pimpri-Chinchwad, both led by the NCP – likely owing to the competitive nature of urban local body polls, where Independents and regional parties or fronts have a significant presence.
The MNS followed up its debut outing with strong performances in the municipal corporation elections held from 2009 to 2014. The party, contesting all but two of the 26 corporations, won 162 of the total 2,543 seats that went to polls, securing a much-improved overall vote share of 12.43%.
Much like the previous set of municipal corporation elections, the MNS's best outings were in Nashik, Pune, Brihanmumbai and Kalyan-Dombivli (the latter two fall within the MMR).
With 40 seats and a 28.24% vote share, the MNS was the single-largest party in Nashik. Though it fell short of an outright majority in the 122-member body, it received enough external support to lead the corporation. Here, its main rivals were the undivided Shiv Sena and NCP, which won 19 and 20 seats respectively, though the Congress was not far behind at 15 seats.
The party, which won seats across 17 corporations, also managed to win 29 of Pune's 152 seats, 28 of Brihanmumbai's 227 seats, 27 of Kalyan-Dombivli's 107 seats, 12 of Jalgaon's 75 seats, and seven of Thane's 130 seats. The MNS won seats in all but two of the corporations under the MMR.
In Pune, which was again dominated by the NCP, the MNS managed to outperform the Congress's tally of 28 seats, the BJP's 26, and the Shiv Sena's 15. In Brihanmumbai, it won more seats than the NCP at 13, and wasn't far behind the BJP's 31; but the Shiv Sena and Congress remained in the lead at 75 and 52 seats, respectively. In Kalyan-Dombivli, only the Shiv Sena, at 31 seats, was ahead of the MNS. In Jalgaon, where regional parties dominated, it won the second highest number of seats among the major parties, behind only the BJP at 15.
In vote share terms, the MNS recorded its best performance in Kalyan-Dombivli at 28.72%, well ahead of every other party despite trailing the Shiv Sena in terms of seats. Its 28.24% vote share in Nashik was the party's next highest tally and the most among all the parties in the corporation. The MNS was the second-highest vote-getter in Brihanmumbai and Pune, with vote shares of 20.67% and 20.6%, respectively. It had the third highest vote shares in Thane at 15.41% and Jalgaon at 13.22%.
In the total 162 seats won by the MNS, its main rivals who finished as runners-up were the Shiv Sena in 56 seats, NCP in 33, BJP in 28, and Congress in 25. But in the 255 seats where the MNS was the runner-up, it was largely trumped by the Shiv Sena, which won 92 of these seats, followed by the NCP at 56, BJP at 44, and Congress at 37.
Going by these figures, an alliance of the MNS with the Shiv Sena may have proven more beneficial than one with the BJP, though neither combination would have together crossed the majority mark in any corporation, except in Kalyan-Dombivli, where the MNS and Shiv Sena's combined seat would have reached an outright majority.
In the most recent set of corporation elections from 2014 to 2019, the last held in Maharashtra, the MNS suffered a major setback, raising questions on its political clout in urban regions. The party, contesting across 21 of the 27 corporations, won just 26 out of a total 2,736 seats with an overall vote share of 3.56% – both tallies well below even its civic poll debut almost a decade prior.
The MNS's seat tally fell in all but one corporation while its vote share fell in all but two. Its best performance, with just nine seats, came in Kalyan-Dombivli, followed by seven seats in Brihanmumbai, and five seats in Nashik. While the Shiv Sena and BJP were neck-and-neck in the lead in Brihanmumbai and Kalyan-Dombivli, with the seat tallies at 84-to-82 and 52-42 respectively, the BJP was the clear front-runner in Nashik with 66 seats. The only other corporations where the MNS won seats were Chandrapur and Pune with two seats each, and one seat in Pimpri-Chinchwad.
The MNS's relatively negligible seat tallies meant that it played only a marginal role in determining the outcomes, even where it put in its strongest performances. For instance, in Brihanmumbai and Nashik, neither the BJP nor the Shiv Sena would have had an outright majority even if the MNS's seats were added to its tally (a Shiv Sena-MNS combine, however, would have fallen short by one seat in Kalyan-Dombivli). But in Nashik, the MNS's best outcome, the BJP alone was able to secure an outright majority.
In terms of vote shares, the MNS topped out at Kalyan-Dombivli at 10.31%, followed by Nashik at 10.01%, Brihanmumbai at 7.73%, Pune at 6.44%, and Thane at 5.57%. In 12 corporations, the party failed to cross the 1% vote share mark.
In some corporations, the MNS's vote share declines from the previous polls were precipitous. In Kalyan-Dombivli, its vote share fell by 18.41 percentage points, and in Nashik by 18.23 percentage points. While in Pune it fell by 14.16 percentage points, the decline was 12.94% in Brihanmumbai.
These figures highlight the declining popularity of the MNS, even in corporations where it held significant influence just five years prior.

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