What happens next is largely in Iran's control - but there are no good choices
As the sun rises above Jerusalem this morning, Israelis will be waking to the news that America has joined their war and attacked Iran. It will be met with mixed feelings.
For the first night in over a week there was no Iranian missile attack on Israel, but while the new day brings a comfort in US military support there will also be deep trepidation that this war has entered a dangerous and potentially uncontrollable phase.
Benjamin Netanyahu released a video statement praising the US president and saying peace comes through strength; Donald Trump addressed the American nation and warned Iran he would not hesitate to order further action if it retaliates.
What happens next is largely in Iran's control. What they choose to do, will determine the future of this region.
The question is now whether they will respond, but how?
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Iran has faced a humiliating pounding from Israeli jets over nine days and now suffered massive attacks on their celebrated nuclear facilities by a country they call "The Great Satan"; there will be a feeling of national humiliation and anger, and the government will need to show its people it remains strong.
Developing a nuclear programme has taken many decades and comes at vast cost: billions and billions of dollars and heavy international sanctions. That all now lies in tatters. How does the government explain that to its people, many of whom have suffered at the expense of these grand ambitions and are opposed to the draconian leadership they live under?
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is often described as the world's longest-serving dictator. He hasn't survived by being reckless but even though the US strikes weren't aimed at regime change, Khamanei's future is now more precarious than ever.
The government rhetoric and state television channels will promise fire and victory, but the reality isn't simple.
There will be voices close to the Supreme Leader, especially in the Revolutionary Guard, encouraging a strong response. The moderates will likely urge caution, wary of dragging the US into a wider, more sustained conflict that Iran couldn't win.
It's unclear how much more Iran can throw at Israel. Ballistic missiles have been fired at the country every day since the war began, but in decreasing numbers as Israel has systematically targeted launch sites and stockpiles.
Iran's proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, are severely degraded and the Assad regime in Syria is no more. This was all supposed to be the first line of defence, a deterrence against an Israel attack. That shield has collapsed.
The Houthis remain defiant but their firepower is limited.
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The US attacks were against Iran's nuclear sites, not senior Iranian officials. Strikes on US bases in the region would therefore be the most logical 'like-for-like' response.
If they choose to widen the conflict, Iran could now target oil facilities in the Gulf or try to close off the globally important Strait of Hormuz. Either of those options would have international consequences.
Shia militia in Iraq could be hard to control if they decide to act unilaterally. Iraqi security forces have reportedly surrounded the US Embassy in Baghdad in anticipation of violence.
There is a possibility Iran could do something smaller and symbolic as a way of saving face, having the final word and giving the region an off-ramp. That will be the hope in Washington.
But even in that best-case scenario, it will surely have to be something more than a token response; Iran is reeling, severely weakened internally and externally. If they escalate, they risk a severe US response that could be a death blow.
If they capitulate, the government faces major domestic dissent and reputational damage from which it might never recover.
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The Independent
29 minutes ago
- The Independent
UK must push for diplomatic solution following US strikes on Iran, says Swinney
John Swinney has said the UK must push for a diplomatic solution delivered by the international community, following the overnight US strikes on Iran's nuclear programme. The Scottish First Minister's response to the developments in the Middle East came after Sir Keir Starmer urged Iran to return to negotiations. UK minister Douglas Alexander said the Government 'has been putting contingencies in place' as the region braces for any potential retaliation from Iran. US President Donald Trump said three key nuclear sites in Iran were 'completely and fully obliterated' in the military strikes. The US is thought to have used B-2 stealth bombers to drop bunker-busting munitions on the sites – including the deeply-buried Fordo facility – as well as 30 Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from submarines. The US-UK base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean is not thought to have been used in the operation. Posting on X, Mr Swinney said: 'The Middle East conflict has reached an alarmingly greater level of danger after the US attacks on Iran. 'The conflict must be stopped by a diplomatic solution delivered through the international community. And the UK Government must insist on that now.' The Prime Minister had earlier said Iran should 'return to the negotiating table', noting the region remains 'volatile'. He said: 'Iran's nuclear programme is a grave threat to international security. 'Iran can never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon and the US has taken action to alleviate that threat.' Former Scottish first minister Humza Yousaf was critical of the Prime Minister's response. He posted on social media: 'An awful statement from the PM, which ignores our collective responsibility to uphold international law. 'Supporting illegal military action in Iran, and gas-lighting us about an imminent nuclear threat, is hauntingly reminiscent of the lies told in the run up to the Iraq war.' During a protest march in London, Mr Yousaf had earlier accused the UK Government of 'abusing' anti-terror laws against the Palestine Action group, which vandalised two aircraft at RAF Brize Norton. Trade policy minister Mr Alexander, who is the MP for Lothian East and a former international development minister, spoke to the BBC's Sunday Show. He said: 'I understand that people have woken up this morning to the news that was breaking overnight with a real sense of concern. 'I want to assure your viewers that the British Government has been putting contingencies in place. 'There have been a whole series of meetings, I and other have been attending Cobra meetings in the course of the week.' He said plans are being put in place to move UK nationals in affected countries to safety, stressing the UK 'took no part in this military action'.
The Independent
29 minutes ago
- The Independent
US strikes 3 Iranian nuclear sites, inserting itself into Israel's war with Iran
Iran's foreign minister says that with the overnight strikes on Iran, 'there is no red line' that the US has not crossed. Abbas Araghchi spoke to reporters in Istanbul on Sunday. He also said that the last red line "and the most dangerous one was what happened only last night when they crossed a very big red line by attacking nuclear facilities only.' THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. AP's earlier story follows below. DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran's foreign minister says diplomacy is not an option after a U.S. strike on its nuclear facilities. Abbas Araghchi spoke in Istanbul to journalists Sunday. He said while the 'door to diplomacy' should always be open, 'this is not the case right now.' THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. AP's earlier story follows below. DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran's foreign minister said on Sunday that Washington is 'fully responsible' for what actions the Islamic Republic takes next in retaliation against the U.S. strikes on its various nuclear sites. 'The warmongering, a lawless administration in Washington is solely and fully responsible for the dangerous consequences and far reaching implications of its act of aggression,' Abbas Araghchi said in a news briefing at a conference in Turkey. These were the first public statements from a high-ranking Iranian official since the U.S. carried out its strikes. THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. AP's earlier story follows below. DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The United States attacked three sites in Iran early Sunday, inserting itself into Israel's war aimed at destroying the Iranian nuclear program in a risky gambit to weaken a longtime foe that prompted fears of a wider regional conflict as Tehran accused Washington of launching "a dangerous war.' U.S. President Donald Trump asserted that Iran's key nuclear sites were 'completely and fully obliterated' in an address to the nation from the White House. The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran confirmed that attacks took place on its Fordo, Isfahan and Natanz sites, but it insisted that its nuclear program will not be stopped. Iran and the U.N. nuclear watchdog said there were no immediate signs of radioactive contamination at the three locations following the strikes. Satellite images taken after the American attack, analyzed by The Associated Press, show damage to the entryways to the Fordo facility, which is dug deep into a mountain, while light gray smoke lingered in the air. The images by Planet Labs PBC also appeared to show damage to the mountain itself, apparently blocking its entry tunnels, which means Iran would have to dig out the facility to reach anything inside. It was not clear whether the U.S. would continue attacking Iran alongside its ally Israel, which has been engaged in a war with Iran for nine days. Countries around the globe are calling for diplomacy and no further escalation. Trump acted without congressional authorization, and he also warned there would be additional strikes if Tehran retaliated against U.S. forces. 'There will either be peace or there will be tragedy for Iran,' he said. Iran's Foreign Ministry said Washington had 'betrayed diplomacy' with the military strikes in support of Israel, and said that 'the U.S. has itself launched a dangerous war against Iran' now. 'The Islamic Republic of Iran reserves its right to resist with full force against U.S. military aggression and the crimes committed by this rogue regime, and to defend Iran's security and national interests,' the ministry said in a lengthy statement. Hours after the American attacks, Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard said it launched a barrage of 40 missiles at Israel, including its Khorramshahr-4, which can carry multiple warheads. Israeli authorities reported that more than 80 people suffered mostly minor injuries, though one multi-story building in Tel Aviv was significantly damaged, with its entire façade torn away to expose the apartments inside. Houses across the street were almost completely destroyed. Following the Iranian barrage, Israel's military said it had 'swiftly neutralized' the Iranian missile launchers that had fired, and that it had begun a series of strikes toward military targets in western Iran. The US helped Israel strike Iran's toughest nuclear site Iran has maintained that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only, and U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that Tehran is not actively pursuing a bomb. However, Trump and Israeli leaders have argued that Iran could quickly assemble a nuclear weapon, making it an imminent threat. The decision to directly involve the U.S. in the war comes after more than a week of strikes by Israel that significantly degraded Iran's air defenses and offensive missile capabilities, and damaged its nuclear enrichment facilities. But U.S. and Israeli officials have said American B-2 stealth bombers and the 30,000-pound (13,500-kilogram) bunker-buster bomb that only they have been configured to carry offered the best chance of destroying heavily fortified sites connected to the Iranian nuclear program buried deep underground. Trump appears to have made the calculation — at the prodding of Israeli officials and many Republican lawmakers — that Israel's operation had softened the ground and presented a perhaps unparalleled opportunity to set back Iran's nuclear program, perhaps permanently. 'We have completed our very successful attack on the three Nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan," Trump said in a post on social media, using common alternate spellings for two of the sites. "All planes are now outside of Iran air space. A full payload of BOMBS was dropped on the primary site, Fordow. All planes are safely on their way home.' Trump added in a later post: 'This is an HISTORIC MOMENT FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, ISRAEL, AND THE WORLD. IRAN MUST NOW AGREE TO END THIS WAR. THANK YOU!' Israel announced Sunday that it had closed its airspace to both inbound and outbound flights in the wake of the U.S. attacks. The White House and Pentagon did not immediately elaborate on the operation. U.S. military leaders are scheduled to provide a briefing at 8 a.m. Eastern. The attack used bunker-buster bombs on Iran's Fordo nuclear fuel enrichment plant that is built deep into a mountain, a U.S. official said. The weapons are designed to penetrate the ground before exploding. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss military operations. In addition, U.S. submarines launched about 30 Tomahawk missiles, according to another U.S. official who also spoke on condition of anonymity. The International Atomic Energy Agency wrote on X that there has been 'no increase in off-site radiation levels' after the strikes but that it would continue to monitor the situation. Trump's turn to strikes departs from some previous statements The decision to attack was a risky one for Trump, who won the White House partially on the promise of keeping America out of costly foreign conflicts and scoffed at the value of American interventionism. But Trump also vowed that he would not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon, and he had initially hoped that the threat of force would bring the country's leaders to give up its nuclear program peacefully. For months, Trump said he was dedicated to a diplomatic push to persuade Iran to give up its nuclear ambitions. And he twice — in April and again in late May — persuaded Netanyahu to hold off on military action against Iran and give diplomacy more time. After Israel began striking Iran, Trump went from publicly expressing hope that the moment could be a 'second chance' for Iran to make a deal to delivering explicit threats on Khamenei and making calls for Tehran's unconditional surrender. He has bristled at criticism from some supporters who have suggested that further U.S. involvement would be a betrayal to those who were drawn to his promise to end U.S. involvement in expensive and endless wars. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu praised Trump's decision to attack in a video message directed at the American president. 'Your bold decision to target Iran's nuclear facilities, with the awesome and righteous might of the United States, will change history,' he said. Netanyahu said the U.S. 'has done what no other country on earth could do.' Fears of a broader war U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called the strikes a 'dangerous escalation,' as world leaders began chiming in with calls for diplomacy. 'There is a growing risk that this conflict could rapidly get out of control — with catastrophic consequences for civilians, the region and the world,' he said in a statement. Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, who had threatened to resume attacks on U.S. vessels in the Red Sea if the Trump administration joined Israel's military campaign, called on other Muslim nations to form 'one front against the Zionist-American arrogance." Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had warned the United States on Wednesday that strikes targeting the Islamic Republic will 'result in irreparable damage for them.' And Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei declared 'any American intervention would be a recipe for an all-out war in the region." The Israeli military said Saturday it was preparing for the possibility of a lengthy war, while Iran's foreign minister warned before the U.S. attack that American military involvement 'would be very, very dangerous for everyone.' Israeli strikes on Iran have killed at least 865 people and wounded 3,396 others, according to the Washington-based group Human Rights Activists. The group said of those dead, it identified 363 civilians and 215 security force personnel. Trump's decision for direct U.S. military intervention comes after his administration made an unsuccessful two-month push — including with high-level, direct negotiations with the Iranians — aimed at persuading Tehran to curb its nuclear program. During his previous administration, Trump pulled the U.S. unilaterally out of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, prompting Tehran to begin enriching uranium to higher levels and restrict the access of IAEA inspectors to its facilities. ___ Madhani reported from Morristown, N.J. Associated Press writers Nasser Karimi, Mehdi Fattahi and Amir Vahdat in Iran; Julia Frankel in Jerusalem; Melanie Lidman in Tel Aviv; Lolita Baldor in Narragansett, Rhode Island; Samy Magdy in Cairo; and Farnoush Amiri in Dubai contributed to this story.
Daily Mail
32 minutes ago
- Daily Mail
Former SAS soldier turned MP is praised for his extraordinary response to anti-war heckler slamming Australia's support of Iran strikes
Shadow Home Affairs Minister Andrew Hastie has been commended for his response to a heckler who interrupted his speech on the US bomb strikes in the Middle East. The 42-year-old former military commander on Sunday said the Coalition backed the strikes on nuclear facilities in Iran, carried out by the Trump administration overnight. 'We do support the United Sates, and the Albanese government should be supporting the United States as well,' Hastie said at a press conference. Later in the speech, Hastie said the Coalition stood in solidarity with the Iranian people, but criticised the country's authoritarian regime as 'sponsoring terrorism'. A protestor in the crowd was then picked up on news microphones yelling, 'Oh come on, the United States of America is the most terrorist country in the world'. Other crowd members turned on the woman and told her to keep quiet. Hastie, however, swiftly stepped in and appeared to encourage the interruption. 'It's a free country,' he told the crowd. 'She's allowed to say what she likes.' Footage of the moment quickly spread online, where the Liberal MP for Canning was praised by viewers for his response to the woman's protest. '(He was) level-headed, well-spoken,' one person said. Another agreed, saying they thought Hastie appeared 'very tolerant and professional with the protester'. 'He's seen the worst of the worst,' a third wrote, referencing Hastie's time as a troop commander in the Special Air Service Regiment (SASR), 'so one protester matters little'. In his speech, Hastie declared support the US strikes, describing them as justified in the current security climate. 'We do not want war, but we believe this was a necessary action to take by the United States military. 'President (Donald) Trump gave the offer of negotiations and over the last two days, the Iranians have not taken up that offer. 'So the coalition stands in solidarity with the Iranian people. We regret the loss of life in Iran and Israel and we hope for a peaceful settlement going forward.' He also criticised the Albanese government's stance on the conflict. 'I think they've been far too ambiguous,' he said. 'The United States is a close ally. The United States has a key role in reestablishing order and peace in the Middle East. 'Iran by contrast is a regime that sponsors terrorism. It sponsored Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. It's taken actions against Israel.' The United States launched air strikes on three nuclear facilities inside Iran over the weekend. The attacks marked a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel. President Donald Trump confirmed the US launched air strikes on three nuclear facilities inside Iran on Sunday morning (Australian time). The strikes came after years of hostility between Iran and Israel intensified into open aerial conflict earlier this month. Iranian officials said the facilities hit were at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan – key sites in the country's nuclear program. Commentators on international law and the Greens criticised the strikes as illegal under international law. A spokesman for the Albanese government urged 'de-escalation, dialogue and diplomacy.' 'We note the US President's statement that now is the time for peace,' a statement read.
