Putin's biggest threat is not from liberals but the nationalist Right
Despite intensive U.S. efforts to broker a ceasefire and staggering battlefield casualties, Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine continues unabated. earlier this week, a Russian drone and missile barrage killed at least 21 civilians in Kyiv, and Russian forces have accelerated their ground offensives in Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts.
President Vladimir Putin's unwavering commitment to his maximalist ambitions in Ukraine has polarised Russian society. A March 2025 Levada Centre poll revealed that 59 per cent of Russians support the initiation of peace negotiations, and that figure soared to 76 per cent amongst Russians under the age of 24.
Nonetheless, there is a vocal ultranationalist minority that is continuing to stoke the flames of war with Ukraine and perpetual conflict with Nato. Since Ukraine announced support for a thirty-day ceasefire in Jeddah on March 11, Russian ultranationalists have urged Putin to reject peaceful negotiations and escalate the war. Former Kremlin advisor Sergey Markov cautioned Putin against accepting a ceasefire unless it was paired with an arms embargo on Ukraine.
In an April 2025 interview with ultranationalist outlet Tsargrad, fascist philosopher Alexander Dugin declared: 'Let's be realistic: we need to bet on our own strength and prepare for a new round of confrontation.' Dugin's target was the European Union and he argued that Europe was already preparing for war with Russia.
Despite countervailing pressure from business-minded elites like Russia Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) chief Kirill Dmitriev and oligarch Vladimir Potanin, Putin's actions have aligned closely with the pro-war camp's agenda. Putin's stalling tactics have convinced the US to stop negotiating with Russia for the time being and the Russian military has stretched the frontlines to capitalise on Ukraine's war materiel constraints.
The recent destruction of Russian strategic bombers via Ukraine's Operation Spiderweb has only strengthened Putin's intransigence. Why is Putin aligning with Russia's ultranationalist minority, even though doing so leads to tighter sanctions and only marginal offensive gains? Like many of the mysteries surrounding contemporary Russia, the answer can be found in Putin's understanding of Russian history.
While Western experts have paid extensive attention to the threat of popular unrest and liberal dissidents like the now-deceased Alexey Navalny to authoritarian stability in Russia, history shows that the biggest threat to Putin's regime comes from the ultranationalist right. Tsar Nicholas II's suppression of the total war rhetoric of conservative philosopher Ivan Ilyin, and ultranationalist firebrand Vladimir Zhirinovsky's rise from the ashes of the 1993 constitutional crisis, are cautionary tales for Putin.
The abortive June 2023 Wagner Group mutiny reaffirmed to Putin the significance of the threat from militant ultranationalists. Through acts of repression like Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin's assassination and MH-17 perpetrator Igor Girkin's imprisonment, Putin has mitigated the immediate danger posed by ultranationalists to his regime's stability. He has co-opted the Russian Orthodox Church, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and hawkish regional governors to ensure that an ultranationalist bloc does not consolidate.
The militarisation of Russian society means that this is only a temporary fix, and ultranationalists could try to topple Putin if the war ends on unfavourable terms for Russia. As ultranationalists saw Russia's cessation of the 2008 Georgian War that left Mikheil Saakashvili in power and the the 2015 Minsk II Accords with Ukraine as gestures of appeasement of the West, the onus is on Putin to pursue total victory.
The challenge for Putin is that he has few available escalation cards. The recommendations that Russia's most hawkish voices have pushed since the Ukraine invasion began in February 2022 are suicidal. If he pursues general mobilisation, he risks widespread socioeconomic unrest and the destruction of the current stealth conscription system that provides Russia with the manpower it needs to prosecute the war. If he gambles with tactical nuclear weapons use, Russia will likely destroy its partnership with China and image in the Global South.
This means that Putin needs to appease ultranationalists by doing more of the same: indefinitely stalling a ceasefire and intensifying Russia's war against Ukrainian civilians. As it would take Russia 152 years to occupy all of Ukraine at its current monthly rate of advance, this strategy will not completely satisfy Russian ultranationalists.
While Putin wields dictatorial power in modern Russia, his grip is weaker than it appears. This is why Putin needs to appease ultranationalists at the expense of peace in Europe and the lives of hundreds of thousands of his own people.
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