US-Australia defence alliance alive and well, insists expert
From left to right, Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles, Britain's Defence Secretary John Healey and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin sit down for talks at the Old Royal Naval College, during the AUKUS Defense Ministerial Meeting in London on 26 September, 2024.
Photo:
AFP
An expert on US-Australia alliances says AUKUS is not dead and, in fact, will never die.
Australia says it is "very confident" in the future of the pact to equip it with nuclear-powered submarines, despite the Pentagon putting it under review.
It said it had been aware for a while about the review, which
media only revealed publicly on Thursday
.
Professor Alan Tidwell, who directs the Centre for Australian, New Zealand and Pacific Studies in Washington, said he was a firm believer the pact was "perpetual".
"I'm a firm believer that AUKUS is one of those things that will probably never die," said the researcher, who
will be in Wellington on Tuesday for the Institute of International Affairs
national conference.
"No-one will ever issue a press release that says AUKUS is dead, it certainly won't come out of Washington.
"They may change the shape of AUKUS, they may change the delivery schedule, but I think it's kind of built in."
Ever since the US, Australia and UK signed the pact in 2021, critics have expressed doubt that the Americans would actually deliver any subs in the 2030s.
Their contention that the
US needed all the subs it could build
for itself was echoed by top Pentagon official Elbridge Colby - now leading the review - after President Donald Trump began his second term.
"In principle, [AUKUS is] a great idea, but I've been very sceptical in practice," Colby said last year.
However, Tidwell believes the outcome of the review won't be to stop AUKUS, nor would it be to carry on as it is.
"I think that the outcome will be something in between," he said. "You know, I think that this is a great opportunity for the United States to push harder on the question of its own shipbuilding.
"It's also an opportunity to keep AUKUS in place."
The second part of AUKUS - Pillar Two - which New Zealand is still looking at joining, was another consideration.
"If you go back in time, Pillar Two always looked like it was an add-on, you know, to the submarine deal... and it's taken on a life of its own.
"In many respects, Australia, the United States, New Zealand, Canada, the United Kingdom have already been sharing high-level technology, have already been involved in joint ventures."
For instance, Australia and the US just
signed a memorandum of understanding
for the former to take part in making new long-range precision strike missiles.
Professor Alan Tidwell will attend the Institute of International Affairs national conference.
Photo:
Supplied
Defence Minister Judith Collins said she was not aware of any invitation to participate in this programme, but that the defence capability plan envisaged investment in enhanced strike capabilities, which could include land-based missiles, "in the near term".
Tidwell said: "In one respect, you could simply say that the Pillar Two creation was really just taking things that were already happening and repackaging them".
"Whether New Zealand joins Pillar Two formally or not, I really don't think is particularly important on the technology side. It might be important on the political side."
Tidwell said the timing of the US announcement of the review was interesting, just before Trump meets Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, and just after Albanese pushed back on a US request for Canberra to hurry and raise defence spending still more - by a lot.
However, in the world of AUKUS, reviews happened, he said, noting the UK recently did its own that gave the thumbs-up.
Meantime, the Trump administration was "pretty chaotic, and for them to organise this in that kind of orchestration, it surprises me... it doesn't seem to be in keeping with the nature of this administration".
As for China, it would be pleased, he said.
"Any time there's disquiet in a bilateral relationship like that, one's opponent would be happy, regardless of its origin."
This added to the strains on the US-Europe relationship, so that, although the administration was getting some of what it wanted - like more defence spending by allies - it had also unleashed negative things.
"I think the idea that the Poles are talking about, about nuclear weapons is terrifying."
In March, Poland - a bulwark of Western help for Ukraine in the war waged by Russia - [https://www.reuters.com/world/polands-president-urges-us-move-nuclear-warheads-polish-territory-ft-reports-2025-03-13/ called on the US to transfer nuclear weapons to its territory.
Tidwell did not think the Ukrainians' innovation with drones to fight Russia could translate wholesale into swapping out subs under AUKUS to undersea drones instead.
"I wouldn't want to simply say, 'OK, we no longer need submarines'.
"I don't think that we're quite at the point of a universal revolution that sees manned undersea boats vanish from use.
"I just would not want to put my all my eggs in one basket and I think having both would be better than just having one.
"You know, the innovation cycle that's so interesting in Ukraine is perhaps more the point than what the technology actually was."
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