Israel's provocative settlement response may force Canada to back up its words
The Israeli government's response to last week's unprecedented joint statement by Canada, France and the U.K. could hardly be clearer, says former Canadian ambassador to Israel Jon Allen, now a senior fellow at the University of Toronto's Munk School.
"It's basically telling the world that we don't really care about what you think at this point in time," he told CBC News. "They really are thumbing their noses at the international community."
Settlement expansion has accelerated ever since the arrival of the current government, Netanyahu's sixth, at the end of 2022. But Allen says the announcement of 22 new settlements — both through new construction and the formalization of existing settler outposts built outside the law — is a major escalation in a number of ways.
"First of all, it's big in terms of the numbers. Secondly, it is legalizing what were deemed illegal settlements even in Israel by its Supreme Court," he said.
"But more importantly, you're getting statements out of ministers which are basically saying the purpose of this is to prevent a two-state solution, while at the same time you've got activity in Gaza, which looks like Israel may be trying to occupy large parts of the Gaza Strip as well."
The dramatic action, he said, is driven by a sense within the Israeli right that this is a now-or-never moment.
"These ministers realize that their polling numbers are very bad and this is their last chance to try and significantly change things on the ground in Israel," he said.
"And so they're really trying a last-ditch effort to kill the two-state solution."
From jail cell to cabinet table
While Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has given his full endorsement to the settlement plan, many Israelis believe that the strongest impetus for it comes from the country's finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, who also holds key posts giving him control over the West Bank.
Smotrich's role illustrates just how much mainstream politics in Israel has changed in the past two decades.
In 2005, Smotrich was one of four radical settlers arrested by Israel's Shin Bet security service on suspicion of plotting violent attacks to prevent the evacuation of Israeli settlements in Gaza and the northern West Bank. He appeared in security court in handcuffs and a prison jumpsuit.
Today, he is the number-two figure in the government and in a position to order the official re-establishment of settlements whose evacuation he once so radically opposed.
Smotrich on May 19 boasted that "we are disassembling Gaza, and leaving it as piles of rubble with total destruction [that has] no precedent globally. And the world isn't stopping us."
He said his own preference would be to cut off water as well as food, but that might lead other countries to intervene. He openly stated that the goal was to leave no Palestinians in Gaza.
On May 25, he returned to the same theme.
"We are being blessed with the opportunity, thank God, of seeing an expansion of the borders of the land of Israel, on all fronts," he said. "We are being blessed with the opportunity to blot out the seed of Amalek, a process which is intensifying."
'Loss of credibility' if Canada fails to act
"We oppose any attempt to expand settlements in the West Bank," wrote Prime Minister Mark Carney, Britain's Keir Starmer and France's Emmanuel Macron in their joint statement last week.
"Israel must halt settlements, which are illegal, and undermine the viability of a Palestinian state and the security of both Israelis and Palestinians. We will not hesitate to take further action, including targeted sanctions."
Thomas Juneau, a former Canadian defence official who now teaches about the Middle East at the University of Ottawa's graduate school of public and international affairs, told CBC News that Israel's announcement leaves Canada with little choice but to back up its words.
WATCH | WHO warns of famine in Gaza:
Gaza's population faces starvation and famine, WHO warns
17 days ago
Duration 2:01
The risk of famine and mass starvation is rising in Gaza, the World Health Organization warns. Palestinian health officials say dozens of children have died of malnutrition since March, the month Israel blocked all aid shipments.
"It does put pressure on the Canadian government, but also on the French, British, German and other European governments in the sense that there was a clear position that was taken last week of threatening actions against Israel," Juneau said.
"So if Canada and European players now do not do anything about 22 new settlements in the West Bank, there is a loss of credibility that would follow."
Former ambassador Allen said Canada can't lay down a marker like the joint statement it signed onto last week, and then let such a provocative response pass without taking action.
"I frankly don't think they will ignore this. I think those three governments were serious about what they were saying, and I expect sanctions to follow," he told CBC News.
Sanctions should target ministers: Former ambassador
Canada has already sanctioned a handful of extremist settlers, albeit reluctantly and only following actions taken by European allies.
But those sanctions have had little practical effect. The sanctioned individuals have suffered few real inconveniences, treating the sanctions in some cases as a badge of honour.
Although condemned many times by Western governments, the most extreme ministers in Netanyahu's cabinet have thus far avoided sanctions. Britain's David Cameron told the BBC he had been preparing sanctions for Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir prior to his government's election defeat. Ben Gvir is a rabble-rousing extremist who was also once a target for Shin Bet surveillance, but is now Israel's minister of national security.
Allen says there would be little point in simply repeating ineffectual sanctions on individual settlers, when the settlement policy is clearly being driven from the top.
"I thought that [the joint statement] was the strongest, most comprehensive announcement that I've ever seen out of the Canadian government. But if they were not to follow up, having issued a specific threat vis-a-vis settlements, then I think it would be a paper statement."
Allen identified Smotrich, Ben Gvir and Defence Minister Israel Katz as the three cabinet members driving the most radical policies.
"If I were advising them, I would advise them to sanction the ministers in question, all three of them," he told CBC News. "But we have to recognize that Prime Minister Netanyahu is the prime minister and he is allowing all of this to happen," he said.
Netanyahu counting on Trump
Juneau says that Netanyahu, at times like these, tends to rely on Israel's relationship with Washington. The Trump administration is the only government in the world that does not always regard Israel's West Bank settlements as inherently illegal under the Fourth Geneva Convention, which forbids a victorious party in war from transferring its own population into conquered territory, or forcing the civilian population that lives there to leave.
"As much as there is a growing trend of European powers and Canada being irritated with Israel, that only matters at most in a secondary way in the calculus of the current Israeli government," Juneau said.
U.S. President Donald Trump, who suggested expelling Gaza's population to turn the territory into a kind of international tourist riviera, is unlikely to react strongly to the settlement announcement, said Juneau. "But there are a lot of indications that the Trump administration is growing somewhat irritated with Israel."
Signs include the fact that both Trump and Vice-President JD Vance have visited the Middle East without stopping in Israel, that Trump has clearly ignored Israeli wishes and objections in negotiations with both Iran and the Houthis of Yemen and persistent rumours that Trump is secretly negotiating some kind of grand bargain with Saudi Arabia without Israeli input.
"All of that put together is causing anxiety in Israel," said Juneau.
Canada will likely co-ordinate with allies
Canada will likely want to co-ordinate its response with the British and French governments that co-signed last week's joint statement, say the two experts.
"Where Canada can have a limited but real impact is when it acts with its allies, especially in Europe, but others, too: Australia, Japan, South Korea and a few others," said Juneau.
"If there is a co-ordinated campaign, not only of sticks towards Israel, but also support to the Palestinian Authority and to the peace camp in Israel, then there can be an impact."
This week, European countries that didn't sign the joint statement separately warned Israel that their patience was at an end.
Italy's foreign minister said Israel's war in Gaza had taken on "absolutely dramatic and unacceptable forms" and "must stop immediately." Germany's conservative chancellor Friedrich Merz, long an unconditional supporter of Israel, said that "what the Israeli army is doing in the Gaza Strip, I no longer understand the goal, to harm the civilian population in such a way."
For the first time, Germany threatened "consequences" if Israel did not change direction, and Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said Germany's days of "obligatory solidarity" with Israel were over.
Juneau says that Canada has no choice but to demand respect for the two-state formula, and for international law.
"If peace remains the objective, if security remains the objective, then there is no other alternative than coexistence between the Palestinian side and the Israeli side," he said.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Globe and Mail
an hour ago
- Globe and Mail
Oil gains and US stock futures, Asian shares slip after US strikes Iran nuclear sites
BANGKOK (AP) — Global markets appeared to take the U.S. strike against nuclear targets in Iran in stride as the price of oil initially jumped more than 2% but fell back slightly on Monday. U.S. stock futures and Asian shares declined. Investors were watching to see how Iran reacts, analysts said, while the U.S. military's strike on three Iranian sites raised urgent questions about what remains of Tehran's nuclear program. "I believe what we are thinking is or the thinking is that it is going to be a short conflict. The one big hit by the Americans will be effective and then we'll get back to sort of business as usual, in which case there is no need for an immediate, panicky type of reaction,' said Neil Newman, managing director of Atris Advisory Japan. The price of Brent crude oil, the international standard, was up 2% at $78.52 a barrel. U.S. crude also jumped, gaining 2% to $75.34 a barrel by midday Monday in Asia. The attacks Saturday raised the stakes in the war between Israel and Iran, and futures for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.3%, while Nasdaq futures fell 0.5%. Treasury yields were little changed. The conflict began with an Israeli attack against Iran on June 13 that sent oil prices yo-yoing and rattled other markets. Iran is a major producer of oil and also sits on the narrow Strait of Hormuz, through which much of the world's crude passes. Closing off the waterway would be technically difficult to pull off but it could severely disrupt transit through it, sending insurance rates spiking and making shippers nervous to move without U.S. Navy escorts 'The situation remains highly fluid, and much hinges on whether Tehran opts for a restrained reaction or a more aggressive course of action,' Kristian Kerr, head of macro strategy at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina, said in a commentary. Iran may be reluctant to close down the waterway because it uses the strait to transport its own crude, mostly to China, and oil is a major revenue source for the regime. 'It's a scorched earth possibility, a Sherman-burning-Atlanta move,' said Tom Kloza, chief market analyst at Turner Mason & Co. "It's not probable.' Kloza thinks oil futures will ease back down after initial fears blow over. Ed Yardeni, a long-time analyst, agreed, writing in a report that Tehran leaders would likely hold back. 'They aren't crazy,' he wrote in a note to investors Sunday. 'The price of oil should fall and stock markets around the world should climb higher.' Other experts aren't so sure. Andy Lipow, a Houston analyst covering oil markets for 45 years, said countries are not always rational actors and that he wouldn't be surprised if Tehran lashed out for political or emotional reasons. 'If the Strait of Hormuz was completely shut down, oil prices would rise to $120 to $130 a barrel,' said Lipow, predicting that that would translate to about $4.50 a gallon at the pump and hurt consumers in other ways. 'It would mean higher prices for all those goods transported by truck, and it would be more difficult for the Fed to lower interest rates.' In Asian trading early Monday, Taiwan's Taiex fell 1.3% while the Kospi in South Korea initially lost 1% but then regained some lost ground to be down 0.4%. Much of East Asia relies heavily on oil imported through the Strait of Hormuz. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 edged 0.1% lower, to 38,366.53, as losses for most shares were offset by gains for defense oriented stocks. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries climbed 0.8% and ShinMaywa Industries, another major weapons maker, surged 1.5%. 'The U.S. strike on Iran certainly is very good for defense equipment,' Newman of Atris Advisory said, noting that both Japan and South Korea have sizable military manufactoring hubs. Australia's S&P/ASX fell 0.4% to 8,470.10. Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 0.1% to 23,498.82, while markets in mainland China advanced. The Shanghai Composite index picked up 0.2% to 3,365.07. In currency dealings, the U.S. dollar rose to 146.90 Japanese yen from 146.66 yen. The euro climbed to $1.1496 from $1.1473.
Winnipeg Free Press
an hour ago
- Winnipeg Free Press
Tarnished by Oct. 7, Netanyahu's legacy may be reshaped by war with Iran
TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — In the days after Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seemed a shellshocked shadow of himself. He looked diminished and downtrodden by the surprise assault that created a national emergency and caused his public support to plummet. Now, as Israel faces another unprecedented crisis in a war with Iran, Netanyahu appears rejuvenated. With the U.S. lending its support against a threat he has devoted his life to confronting, Netanyahu is demonstrating a resurgent confidence that could signal a new turning point in his lengthy political career. Even as Iranian missiles pound Israeli cities, Netanyahu, 75, has the chance to salvage his sagging political fortunes and reshape a legacy punctured by Hamas' attacks, a corruption trial and a history of divisive rule. If he succeeds, it will cement his reputation within Israel as a political wizard who can rise from the ashes. 'Netanyahu has proven that he is a phoenix,' said veteran Israeli journalist and Netanyahu biographer Mazal Mualem. Netanyahu's troubled legacy is granted a lifeline The war is far from won. Israel is still vulnerable to Iranian attacks, and whatever political boost Netanyahu gains from the latest developments could dissipate by elections scheduled for next year. He is the same polarizing leader he was yesterday. Internationally, he faces an arrest warrant for charges of war crimes in Gaza. He is widely reviled across the Arab world. And after nearly two years of regionwide conflict, many critics see him as a warmonger responsible for tens of thousands of deaths in Gaza and elsewhere in the Middle East. But domestically, where Netanyahu's eyes are always focused, his legacy has been granted a lifeline. Many Israelis are attuned to Netanyahu's campaign against Iran's nuclear program, which they view as a major threat to their country and are therefore relieved by the direct involvement of the U.S. military. 'Netanyahu is seen as a very divisive and destructive leader. He is seen as someone who talks a lot and doesn't do anything,' said Aviv Bushinsky, a former Netanyahu aide. 'Today, Netanyahu redeemed himself, big time.' In an early morning video statement after the U.S. strike on Iran's nuclear facilities, Netanyahu could barely contain a smile as he thanked President Donald Trump. He said the intervention would 'change history.' It's a stunning turnaround for an Israeli leader who critics and analysts largely wrote off in the days after Oct. 7, when he presided over the deadliest attack in Israel's history. Many hold Netanyahu personally responsible for overseeing policies that enabled Hamas to retain power in Gaza for many years and build up a formidable arsenal. Netanyahu has been buoyed occasionally since then by military successes against Hamas and the Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. But with the Gaza war dragging on with no end in sight, and dozens of Israeli hostages still in captivity, his approval ratings have remained low. The week-old assault on Iran, highlighted by Sunday's U.S. attack, grants Netanyahu a chance for salvation. Netanyahu's yearslong focus on Iran The war caps a yearslong focus — some would say obsession — by Netanyahu on Iran and its nuclear program. Since his first term as prime minister in the 1990s, and throughout his current, nearly uninterrupted 16-year rule, he has made challenging Iran's nuclear program his life's work. Netanyahu has long portrayed Iran as an existential threat — pointing not only to its nuclear program, but also its development of long-range missiles aimed at Israel and support for hostile militant groups on Israel's borders. Iran became a repeated theme in his speeches to the Israeli and international public. He famously hoisted a cartoon bomb from the dais of U.N. General Assembly as he accused Iran of developing a nuclear weapon. Iran insists the program is for civilian purposes. At the same time, Netanyahu has made no mention of Israel's own widely suspected nuclear weapons arsenal. Netanyahu took significant diplomatic risks to pursue his crusade, including with a 2015 speech to Congress that was organized by Republican lawmakers, angering the Obama administration. During the speech, he railed against a U.S.-led deal on Iran's nuclear program just as negotiators were wrapping up its details. Trump unilaterally withdrew the U.S. from the agreement during his first term. Some critics say that it was Netanyahu's laser focus on Iran, and the military and intelligence resources devoted to it, that blinded the Israeli leader and the defense establishment to the threat Hamas in Gaza. Hamas' attack is a stain on Netanyahu's legacy Hamas' attack, in which 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken hostage, blindsided Israel. Netanyahu, who likes to portray himself as a security hawk and the only true guardian of Israel, is seen by many as having promoted a failed strategy in the years preceding the Oct. 7 attack by sending huge amounts of aid into in Gaza under the misconception that Hamas was deterred. In fact, the Palestinian militant group would stage a brutal assault that would crush Israel's vaunted defenses and change the course of history. In the aftermath of Hamas' attack, Netanyahu's public support plummeted. Netanyahu shrugged off accountability for Hamas' attacks, pointing a finger at his security chiefs and rejecting demands for a public inquiry into the failures. He says he will answer tough questions about his role after the war, now in its 21st month. Any political boost from the war could fade by elections Netanyahu's work is not done. The war in Gaza grinds on, and Netanyahu still dreams of seeing a normalization deal between Israel and Arab powerhouse Saudi Arabia as part of his legacy. The question remains whether Netanyahu will rebound politically from the Iran war. Polls taken last week showed that Netanyahu would still struggle to form a coalition if elections were held today. Even if he gets a bump from Sunday's U.S. attack, it's not clear how long that might last. Bushinsky compared Netanyahu's potential political predicament to a world leader he likes to compare himself to, Winston Churchill, who, after leading the allies in triumphantly defeating the Nazis in World War II, did not get reelected in a 1945 vote in part because public priorities shifted dramatically. 'Bibi may be 'King of Israel,' Bushinsky said, using a nickname for Netanyahu popular among his supporters, 'but even a king has his limits.'
CTV News
2 hours ago
- CTV News
CTV QP: U.S. airstrike on Iranian nuclear sites a tactic to ‘buy time': Lawson
Former Chief of the Defence Staff (Ret'd) Gen. Tom Lawson says he is 'not surprised' that President Trump's plan to attack Iranian nuclear sites.
