Investors brace for sharemarket volatility, oil price surge after US bombs Iran
Investors are expecting a jump in oil prices, equity market volatility and a rush to safe-haven assets this week, after the US launched strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities on Sunday.
In a major escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, US president Donald Trump announced on Sunday the US had 'completely and totally obliterated' Iran's uranium enrichment facilities, as he warned Iran should 'make peace' or face 'far greater' future attacks.
The attack deepens US involvement in the Middle East, and investors on Sunday mulled the likely market scenarios, including what it could mean for share prices, the price of oil, and currency and bond markets.
Futures, which were set before the attack, point to a 0.2 per cent decline in the ASX 200 on Monday, after Wall Street's S&P 500 fell 0.2 per cent on Friday, amid ongoing fears over the escalating conflict. The Dow Jones added 0.1 per cent and the Nasdaq lost 0.5 per cent.
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'I think the markets are going to be initially alarmed, and I think oil will open higher,' said Mark Spindel, chief investment officer at Potomac River Capital.
'We don't have any damage assessment and that will take some time. Even though he has described this as 'done', we're engaged. What comes next?' Spindel said.
'I think the uncertainty is going to blanket the markets, as now Americans everywhere are going to be exposed. It's going to raise uncertainty and volatility, particularly in oil,' he added.
Spindel, however, said there was time to digest the news before markets open and said he was making arrangements to talk to other market participants.
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ABC News
37 minutes ago
- ABC News
'Very concerning': US challenges 'international norms' with Iran strike
In the lead up to the Iraq War in 2003, United States Secretary of State Colin Powell went to the UN Security Council to present evidence that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction, which required the US to take military action. The evidence, of course, turned out to be false. But the US was at least going through the motions of following the UN charter: seeking international approval, and making the case for war, before firing a shot. Donald Trump didn't bother with either. In fact, he openly rejected the assessment of his own security agencies that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon, nor planned to. "My intelligence community is wrong," he said. But Trump presented no evidence to support his own, differing assessment. Nor has he made the case as to why the threat of a nuclear armed Iran needed to be solved right now by military, rather than diplomatic, means. There is general agreement in the international community that Iran should not become a nuclear power. Not just because of the immediate threat an Iranian nuclear weapon would pose to Israel and other countries but because it would almost certainly spark a new nuclear arms race in the Gulf and beyond. And there are important questions Iran needs to answer about its nuclear program. Why, for example, does it possess a stockpile of uranium enriched to around 60 per cent, when a domestic nuclear program only requires around 3 per cent enrichment? And why did the International Atomic energy Agency (IAEA) recently find that Iran has not been fully cooperating with nuclear inspectors since 2019? These are important facts. But they are not evidence that Iran was on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon, resulting in the kind of imminent, unavoidable threat that would justify a military strike under the UN charter of self defence. "I can't really find a firm basis for this US action," Don Rothwell, a professor of international law at the Australian National University, said. "The United States has not been subject to an Iranian armed attack, so that removes its right under the UN charter." It puts American allies like Australia in a difficult position. Like other major countries, Australia did not call for the US to enter this war; instead it called for de-escalation, dialogue and diplomacy. Now that the strike has happened, Foreign Minister Penny Wong says Australia does support the US bombing raid. "The world has agreed Iran cannot be allowed to get a nuclear weapon, so yes, we support action to prevent that, and that is what this is," she told the ABC's AM program. At an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council this morning, the US representative Dorothy Shea said the US attack was justified and legal. "This operation sought to eliminate a long standing but rapidly escalating source of global insecurity and to aid our ally Israel in our inherent right of collective self-defence, consistent with the UN Charter," she said. "The time finally came for the United States in the defence of its ally [Israel], and in the defence of our own citizens and interests, to act decisively." Rothwell worries about the precedent that has been set by the US action. "We've seen an erosion of some of these international norms, especially when it comes to the use of force [in] pre-emptive self-defence," he said. "It's very concerning. Because if these states are interpreting their right to exercise self-defence in this way, of course other states will look on and say, 'If the United States can do this, why can't we also use this right of self-defence to disarm our enemies in this way?'"

The Age
an hour ago
- The Age
Rupert Murdoch's right-hand man made $42m last year. He has just landed a new deal
Rupert Murdoch's most senior and one of his last remaining lieutenants, Robert Thomson, who hails from a Victorian town with a population of 279, has been granted a five-year contract extension to 2030, cementing his status as one of Australia's top paid executives. Data published by the Australian Council of Superannuation Investors (ACSI) last week revealed him to be the highest-paid Australian executive, with take-home pay of $41.9 million in the last financial year. News Corp is co-listed on the ASX and Nasdaq. Thomson is chief executive of News Corp, the global media, technology and information company most famous for a raft of newspapers including The Australian, Herald Sun and Daily Telegraph in Australia, and The Sun, The Times and The Wall Street Journal overseas. The move puts to bed some internal speculation that Almar Latour, the Dow Jones chief executive, which holds the company's Wall Street Journal, was in line to succeed Thomson, who has led News Corp since its inception in 2013, when the Murdoch family's media assets were split in two, creating both Fox and News Corp. Thomson has made more than $200 million in total remuneration since taking on the job over a decade ago, the Australian Financial Review has previously reported. Loading Born in the Victorian town of Torrumbarry and educated at St Kilda's Christian Brothers College, Thomson got his start at The Melbourne Herald, now known as The Herald Sun. He went on to hold senior journalism roles at The Sydney Morning Herald and The Financial Times. After he was passed over for the latter's top editorial job in 2001, he was poached by Murdoch to edit his prestigious London broadsheet, The Times. He eventually went on to edit FT rival, the Wall Street Journal. Thomson and Rupert Murdoch developed a long-standing relationship despite the 30-year age gap (to the day). He is known to be one of the few executives willing to offer full and frank advice, or criticism, to the media mogul. It is now Lachlan Murdoch who has extended Thomson's time at News Corp, in one of his most significant moves since becoming sole chair 18 months ago. The News Corp chair praised Thomson's role in transforming the company over his 12-year tenure, saying his vision and leadership are vital as it navigates an era of rapid change.


West Australian
2 hours ago
- West Australian
Global travel warning: Smartraveller warns Australian travellers about risk, not just in the Middle East
The Australian Government has warned Aussies that the 'unpredictable' situation in the Middle East may put them at risk or leave them stranded and unable to get home, regardless of where they are globally. On Saturday night (local time), US President Donald Trump dropped a barrage of tactical bombs on uranium enrichment nuclear facilities across Iran, the first direct involvement from the superpower in the Israel-Iran war. In the wake of the strike, world leaders are calling for diplomacy as fears of retaliation grow. On Monday, Smartraveller, which is part of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, warned Australians about the 'global impacts of conflict in the Middle East'. 'The situation in the Middle East is unpredictable. It could get worse with little warning. Security risks may increase. There may be travel disruptions within the region and globally,' Smartraveller said. The advice followed a US State Department 'worldwide travel warning' issued on Sunday night. The new information from Smartraveller warned Aussies that they could be caught up in conflict 'even if your destination is not in the Middle East'. 'Closure of airspace around transit hubs in the Middle East may impact flights globally. It may cause flight delays and cancellations,' the warning said. 'If you travel to or through the Middle East, you may be unable to leave if conflict escalates. 'Local security situations could get worse with little warning. Flights can change or stop at short notice. Roads and borders can close.' Australians are being warned about safety and security globally, not just in the Middle East. 'Conflict in the Middle East could impact safety and security elsewhere. There is a risk of reprisal attacks and further escalation,' Smartraveller said. 'Protests and civil unrest may happen globally. The risk of terrorist attacks can increase, particularly around areas where foreign tourists gather, embassies and other foreign interests.' The new alert included information on the risks of armed conflict, terrorism, kidnapping, protests and civil unrest. On Sunday night, the United States Government warned its citizens of increased risk globally. 'The conflict between Israel and Iran has resulted in disruptions to travel and periodic closure of airspace across the Middle East,' the US State Department said in a statement. 'There is the potential for demonstrations against US citizens and interests abroad. 'The Department of State advises U.S. citizens worldwide to exercise increased caution.' Before Aussies leave the country, they should contact their airline to ensure the flight is still planned. Smartraveller also encourages Aussies to check their travel insurance policy before travel. If Australians leave the country or are overseas, while travelling, they are encouraged to stay alert to possible threats, monitor local and international news for new threats, take official warnings seriously and follow the instructions of local authorities. Yes. There are currently large impacts on airline services due to the Middle East conflict. Flight routes were changed when war between Israel and Iran escalated and missiles were launched. Many airlines have temporarily suspended flight on some routes. Airlines including Etihad, Emirates, Flydubai, Wizz Air, Air Arabia, Watar Airways, Oman Air, Kuwait Airways, Gulf Air, Syrian Airlines, EgyptAir, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, American Airlines, Air Canada, Air France, KLM, Ryan Air, Swiss Air Lines, Lufthansa, Austrian Airlines, Brussels Airlines and Aeroflot have current suspensions on services. Virgin Australia and Qantas are understood to be monitoring the situation closely, both for any direct flights and those carried out with partner airlines.