Explaining the curious case of 'Emilia Pérez,' the woebegone Oscar frontrunner

Jacques Audiard's 'Emilia Pérez' is an Oscar contender unlike any other. It's a musical, a trans parable, and a Mexico-set melodrama, all combined into one unique amalgamation by an international filmmaking team.
And just as singularly, it's a best picture front-runner that, it sometimes seems, no one likes.
On one hand, 'Emilia Pérez' is one of the most celebrated films of the year. It triumphed at the Golden Globes, earned 11 BAFTA nominations and landed 13 Academy Award nominations. Only three movies, ever, have scored more.
On the other hand, 'Emilia Pérez' has been lampooned for its tonal extremes, criticized for its depiction of Mexican culture and engulfed in controversy since it ascended to Oscar-favorite status.
A lot is hinging on how far 'Emilia Pérez' can go. If it manages to steer through the backlash and go home the big winner at the March 2 Oscars, it would hand Netflix its first best picture win. Its star, Karla Sofía Gascón, is the first openly trans actor nominated for best actress. A win would be even more historic.
Those possibilities, though, appear severely threatened after old tweets of Gascón's led her to issue an apology Thursday — the latest setback in an Oscar campaign that's veering close to becoming a train wreck.
But how did we get here in the first place? What has made 'Emilia Pérez' so acclaimed and reviled in equal measures?
It started in Cannes
When 'Emilia Pérez' debuted at the Cannes Film Festival last May, the reception was mixed but generally favorable. Audiard, the French director of 'A Prophet,' 'Dheepan' and 'Rust and Bone,' has made tales of transformation a specialty. But 'Emilia Pérez' is perhaps his boldest foray yet into shape-shifting narratives.
Gascón stars as a Mexican drug lord who, with the help of a lawyer (Zoe Saldaña), undergoes gender-affirming surgery. Later, she emerges to reconnect with the children she had with her ex-wife, played by Selena Gomez.
The narco-musical is unabashedly audacious — a quality that the film's supporters warmly embraced. The film's ensemble shared in the best actress award at Cannes, and the movie won the jury prize. Netflix acquired it for a reported $12 million.
Becoming an Oscars front-runner
While 'Emilia Pérez' seemed to have promising awards chances for its actors, it didn't take on the air of Oscar heavyweight until late fall. By then, Netflix, which aggressively campaigns for awards, had built 'Emilia Pérez' into an unlikely juggernaut.
Working in its favor: This year's awards season has been seen as wide open. Also, the other much-honored musical, 'Wicked,' features songs from the Broadway adaptation, leaving it on the sidelines in the best song category where original tunes are required. Both 'El Mal' and 'Mi Camino' from 'Emilia Pérez' were nominated for best song.
It also, as France's submission, was nominated for best international film. As the film academy has expanded its membership in recent years, many more overseas voters have swayed the Oscars toward international nominees. A Spanish-language, French production featuring Hollywood stars perfectly suits the increasingly global Oscars.
Audiences have their say
As the awards chances of 'Emilia Pérez' expanded, audiences also began to weigh in. If critics were split, viewers have been largely negative, according to some metrics. On Rotten Tomatoes, the movie earned a passing grade from 76% of reviewers, but just 19% from audiences. Netflix doesn't report box office figures, so 'Emilia Pérez' has no quantifiable ticket sales in the U.S. and Canada. The film also hasn't ranked highly on the streaming service.
As more watched the film, some poked holes in it. GLAAD passed over 'Emilia Pérez' in its annual awards. The LGBTQ rights alliance declared the movie 'a profoundly retrograde portrayal of a trans woman' and 'a step backward for trans representation.'
Moviegoers in Mexico likewise weren't impressed, taking issue with the film's jumble of Spanish accents, its simplistic treatment of drug violence in the country and what some described as pervasive inauthenticity. The Mexican comedian and actor Eugenio Derbez called Gomez's accent 'indefensible' before later apologizing.
A group of Mexican filmmakers even responded with a payback parody short film titled 'Johanne Sacreblu,' described as 'a French-inspired film made entirely without a French cast or crew.' The film had more than a million viewers in its debut weekend on YouTube, while screenings of 'Emilia Pérez' in Mexican cinemas remain sparsely attended.
Gascón's social media posts surface
In late January, the journalist Sarah Hagi captured old posts on X by Gascón disparaging Muslims, George Floyd and China. After an uproar, Gascón apologized Thursday in a statement provided by Netflix.
The posts dating back as far as 2016 included suggestions that Islam be banned and that Floyd, a Black man killed by a white Minneapolis police officer in 2020, was a drug addict who 'very few people ever cared' for.
'As someone in a marginalized community, I know this suffering all too well and I am deeply sorry to those I have caused pain,' Gascón said. 'All my life I have fought for a better world. I believe light will always triumph over darkness.'
Gascón's X account was subsequently deactivated.
What happens next
Just how much damage has been done to the Oscar chances of 'Emilia Pérez' remains to be seen. Gascón was seen as unlikely to win over best actress favorite Demi Moore ('The Substance'), but pundits believe the fallout could be wider for a movie that already had a lot of dings against it.
Other films, though, have weathered controversies on the way to Oscar glory. The divisive 2019 best picture winner 'Green Book' had many detractors, but still pulled out the win. This year, it should be a close race, regardless. An unusually large number of films, including 'Anora,' 'Conclave,' 'The Brutalist,' 'Wicked' and 'A Complete Unknown,' are believed to have a legitimate chance.
Oscar voting begins Feb. 11. Before the Oscars in March, ceremonies by the Screen Actors Guild, the Producers Guild and BAFTA should provide some clues as to whether "Emilia Pérez' is still the favorite or not.

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