Trump's Middle East visit raises Israel's anxieties
US President Donald Trump (left) looks on as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman greets the crowd during the Saudi-US investment forum in Riyadh on May 13. PHOTO: AFP
WASHINGTON – One of the most eye-catching images from President Donald Trump's three-nation Arabian Gulf tour was the sight of Saudi, Emirati and Qatari fighter jets soaring alongside Air Force One , escorting the US presidential plane across the blue skies.
It sent a clear message : Trust between America and its wealthy Gulf partners is deepening.
Notably, Mr Trump's four-day itinerary excluded Israel, a move that has raised brows among foreign policy experts and pro-Israel advocates about the perceived repositioning of the US-Israel relationship.
The tour was viewed with great concern in Israel, said Mr Shalom Lipner, a former official who has served several Israeli premiers – including incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu – at the Prime Minister's Office in Jerusalem.
Impressions matter, he told The Straits Times . 'Even if the president's primary focus is on doing business in the Gulf, not making a stop in Jerusalem is being perceived as a message in itself,' said Mr Lipner, who is now a senior fellow at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative of the Atlantic Council.
The omission, which underscores the apparent divergence of opinion on how best to address regional challenges in Iran, Syria, Yemen and other places, appears all the more surprising given the enduring influence of the powerful and famous pro-Israel lobby in Washington.
'Famed or not, no interest group is, or was ever, omnipotent,' Mr Lipner said, remarking on the broad network of individuals, organisations and interest groups that seek to influence the US government and Congress to advance the interests of Israel.
With a shift in American public opinion amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza and the rise of progressive and left-wing organisations, the lobby's influence has dipped. Now, it is often openly criticised.
The discourse in Washington has changed greatly, noted Mr Lipner.
'Trump is in the driver's seat, and there's little room for discussion or dissent,' he said.
'There is room only to devise a path of accommodation with his objectives or to risk going it alone, without being able to depend credibly upon US support.'
Israel was a stop in Mr Trump's first overseas trip of his first term but sidestepped in his second-term strategy, which has prioritised transactional diplomacy, experts said.
Hundreds of billions of dollars in trade and defence deals were announced during his stops in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Doha this week .
On Iran, the divergence is particularly stark. Both Washington and Jerusalem view Iran's nuclear ambitions as a major threat, but the Trump administration has leaned towards diplomatic engagement.
The word in DC is that former national security advisor Mike Waltz was ousted at least partly due to his advocacy of total dismantlement of the Iranian nuclear programme. Mr Trump and some of his key Cabinet members reportedly support Iran having access to some kind of enrichment that allows a civilian nuclear programme.
In contrast, Israel had hoped to secure Washington's support for pre-emptive military measures on nuclear sites of Iran, a country it views as an existential threat.
The recent US understanding reached with the pro-Iran Houthi terrorist group is also not to Israel's liking.
On May 5, the US and the Houthis agreed not to target each other, after seven weeks of US strikes on Yemen in response to Houthi missile and drone attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea.
The Houthis had shot down several American MQ-9 Reaper drones and fired at ships in the Red Sea, including an American aircraft carrier. The strikes burned through weapons and munitions at a rate of about US$1 billion ($1.3 billion) in the first month alone, US media has reported.
But their deal to end the firing did not include an end to attacks on Israel, which has conducted retaliatory strikes on the Houthis.
If the Trump administration is going to deal with the Houthis that leaves the Israelis out, the Israelis are going to be clear that they are not bound by it, said Dr Steven Cook, senior fellow for Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).
'We saw Israel's spectacular raid on the airport in Sanaa. And I would expect that we'll see something like that again,' he said during a briefing on Mr Trump's trip.
This is not the best moment in US-Israel relations, noted Mr Elliott Abrams, who was a Special Representative for Iran in Mr Trump's first term.
'I wouldn't call it a breach. Tensions rise and fall under every president,' said Mr Abrams, who is also a senior fellow at CFR.
'There's a concentration now because there may be disagreements about Gaza, Iran and the Houthis.'
During his trip, Mr Trump also unveiled an arms sales package to Saudi Arabia worth nearly US$142 billion, with the White House calling it 'the largest defence cooperation agreement' in American history.
Although it did not specify which arms the US would sell Saudi Arabia, F-35s are reportedly on the table.
This has also stirred concern in Israel where observers point out that the US law requires that Israel maintain a 'Qualitative Military Edge' over its neighbours in the Middle East. Israel is currently the only country in the Middle East operating the F-35s.
The space for Arab opinion in US policymaking has expanded, Dr Cook said.
'Think about it, the Saudis are playing a role in mediating with the Ukrainians and the Russians. The Emiratis have been instrumental in bringing Americans wrongfully imprisoned in Russia home. The Qataris have had a big role to play in Gaza and are trying to get to a ceasefire there. And now you have the Omanis, who are deeply involved in not only the nuclear negotiations but also the Houthis,' he said.
'It seems that the Trump administration sees America's partners in the Gulf as their kind of trusted interlocutors, not treaty allies in Europe or other partners. And it's a different look for American foreign policy to go to these Gulf states as mediators on issues, both within the region and beyond.'
While Israel is increasingly anxious about being sidelined in regional calculations, the US focus has also prompted questions on the impact on China, which has been trying to position itself as an alternative broker for economic and diplomatic engagement in recent years.
Mr Trump's visit is the first direct attempt to halt China's momentum and reestablish the US as the principal outside power shaping the future of the Gulf, said Ms Zineb Riboua, a research fellow at the Centre for Peace and Security in the Middle East, at the Hudson Institute.
Mr Trump's decision to make his first major foreign visit to Riyadh rather than Brussels, London, or Tokyo is a deliberate signal that the US sees the Middle East as a vital theatre of strategic competition with China, she wrote in a Hudson Institute report .
This shift is also visible in the administration's approach to Syria, she noted, calling Mr Trump's May 13 decision to lift sanctions on Damascus 'not a random concession' to the post-Assad regime.
'Rather, it is an attempt to re-enter a strategic theatre that the Obama administration ceded to China, Russia, and Iran,' she said.
'For years, Beijing has shielded (former president) Bashar al-Assad's Syria at the UN and positioned itself to lead post-war reconstruction efforts alongside Russian firms,' she said.
'The sanctions' removal signals a renewed American effort to prevent Beijing from monopolising a strategically central part of the Middle East.'
Attention has also focused on Washington's readiness to allow Saudi Arabia access to advanced US semiconductors. This could be intended to shut China out of future Gulf infrastructure in artificial intelligence , surveillance, and cloud computing, according to Ms Riboua.
'These agreements are part of the administration's strategy to push back on China's expanding influence by making digital sovereignty central to US security partnerships,' she said.
Mr Trump was less subtle about his messaging to the Arab nations.
'They were being coaxed very strongly by China, because this solved China's fuel problem forever,' he said in a May 16 interview with Fox News, referring to the Arab nations that supply about half of China's crude oil imports.
'They were going to China and that was going to be their 'parent,'' he said.
'And that's not happening any more.'
Bhagyashree Garekar is The Straits Times' US bureau chief. Her previous key roles were as the newspaper's foreign editor (2020-2023) and as its US correspondent during the Bush and Obama administrations.
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