Thirteen Lions calls Andy Farrell must get right
A shadowy process in which the participants are sworn to secrecy, the papal conclave would do well to learn from the levels of mystery and intrigue surrounding Andy Farrell's final Lions selection meeting at an undisclosed location in London on Wednesday.
Telegraph Sport raises 13 topics that will determine the make-up of the squad, to be announced on Thursday afternoon.
Rule by debate or dictatorship?
As head coach, Farrell will have the final say on squad selection. The question is how much input will his assistants have? While Richard Wigglesworth, Simon Easterby, John Dalziel, Andrew Goodman, Johnny Sexton and John Fogarty are all fine individual coaches, this is not a cabinet of heavyweights like Ian McGeechan assembled in 2009 or Warren Gatland in 2017. Fogarty and Dalziel have been coaching at international level for five years while the others are relative novices and none have coached on a Lions tour before. Certainly Sexton will not be shy in sharing his opinion – see his thoughts on Finn Russell – but how much sway will that have in the final decision? Speaking in March, Farrell suggested none of his thoughts will be set in stone when he walks into a room. 'I am open-minded enough to be persuaded in my opinion, I am not too pig- headed for that,' Farrell said. 'But if it comes down to a 50-50 I'd be happy to make the call. The way I like to do it when you start getting to the point or near the point where you start to play devil's advocate on everyone's opinion and the truth definitely comes out then.'
Recency bias vs class is permanent
Since the last Lions tour, Ireland have been by far the best-performing home nation – significant World Cup hiccup aside – winning two Six Nations titles as well as three Triple Crowns, reaching world No 1 status as well as securing landmark victories in South Africa and New Zealand. However, their form has dipped significantly with an underwhelming loss to the All Blacks in the autumn followed by a rout at home to France. A Leinster side containing 20 Irish internationals then lost to Northampton in the Champions Cup semi-final. Farrell's selections as Ireland head coach demonstrate that he is loyal – some would say to a fault – to players whose form might be wavering. Can he afford to apply the same principles to Lions selection? Or will he weigh the most recent high-level performances more prominently in that final selection call. 'Some teams are the worst in the world or the best in the world after two rounds and then how they finish they are now the best in the world or the worst in the world,' Farrell said. 'I just have to make sure I am level-headed enough to just see the reality of it.'
We need to talk about Sam...
On that subject, fly-half Sam Prendergast was conspicuously poor in both Ireland's loss to France loss and against Northampton last Saturday. His defence is simply a liability and one that would be ruthlessly exploited by a master manipulator such as Joe Schmidt. In a way, this should not be a surprise for a young fly-half who has not yet played 50 games of senior rugby and has a few rough edges. With his sumptuous range of passing and kicking you can see why Farrell is so smitten with Prendergast as Ireland's future No 10. Sexton too is a huge admirer. It has been suggested Prendergast would learn a lot from going to Australia but that is anathema to what the Lions should stand for. They are no development vehicle. Prendergast has plenty of attributes to be a successful Test fly-half but the flaws may appear too big to ignore.
…. and Owen
If Prendergast's selection ahead of, say Fin Smith or Finn Russell, would be incendiary then Owen Farrell going in the same circumstances would trigger a thermonuclear reaction on social media and beyond. Farrell has the experience of three previous tours and through force of personality would set internal standards that are so crucial to the Lions success over the tour, as former team-mate Alex Goode attests to. However, Farrell does not have the crucial commodity of form to merit selection after a rough first season with Racing 92. Farrell senior has said his only criteria is selecting players who give the Lions the best possible chance of success Down Under, but however alien the idea of nepotism might be to him, he has to at the very least consider the optics of selecting his son.
The French connection
The plus side of selecting Farrell is that barring a late surge Racing should not be involved in the Top 14 play-offs, allowing him to be called up instantly. Same for Courtney Lawes at Brive. For other contenders such as Blair Kinghorn and Jack Willis with Toulouse and Ben White, Kyle Sinckler and David Ribbans with Toulon, who are currently first and third in the Top 14, the situation is more complicated. Should either side reach the Top 14 final on June 28 then they will miss at least the Lions' first three fixtures against Argentina in Dublin on June 22, Western Force in Perth on June 28 and Queensland Reds in Brisbane on July 2. This, needless to say, would be far-from-ideal preparation and while Farrell previously appeared relaxed about it, he may only be able to make one or two rather than four or five exemptions.
Witness the fitness
The other big factor the coaches will need to consider is the current injury list which sadly now includes Caelan Doris who appears increasingly unlikely to make the tour. Centre Ollie Lawrence, wing Ollie Sleightholme and second row George Martin, who featured in England's Six Nations, are all out. Then comes a list of players who are currently injured but working their way back to fitness such as George Furbank, Mack Hansen, Sione Tuipulotu, Huw Jones, Blair Kinghorn, Zander Fagerson, Matt Fagerson, Duhan van der Merwe and Immanuel Feyi-Waboso. Some are due back before the end of the club season but Farrell can only take so many risks in a squad touring the other side of the world.
Price of utilities
Now if Farrell does intend to take some French-based players as well as some players who might at the very least be far from 100 per cent, this will place an added premium on certain individuals to cover multiple positions, especially in the backline. Elliot Daly and Jamie Obsorne can seamlessly slot between the centres as well as the back three while Blair Murray can feature there and at fly-half. In a specialist role like No 10, where game minutes may be limited, the ability to fill other positions is especially important which may well play into Marcus Smith's hands. 'You need versatility in a Lions squad,' Danny Wilson, the Harlequins head coach, said. 'He can genuinely do that. He's shown it at 10 and 15 internationally.' Then there is Asher Opoku-Fordjour, that rarest of beasts as a prop who can double up at loosehead and tighthead, which was noted by scrum coach John Fogarty. 'Something like that is valuable, isn't it?' While it is valuable, there is also a balance between having Jacks of all trades and too few specialist masters.
Combo deals or mix and match?
With time so limited on a Lions tour, there will be a strong temptation to pick a couple of flat-pack combinations off the shelf rather than mix and match. Hence picking ready-made centre pairings of Tuipulotu and Jones or Bundee Aki and Garry Ringrose. Same with the half-backs where there is an added appeal of picking Alex Mitchell and Fin Smith or Jamison Gibson-Park who play for both club and country. If Maro Itoje is going to be your main lineout target, that counts in the favour of Jamie George who has thrown to Itoje more than any individual. However, there is a danger that if you go down that path then you end up with the entire Ireland team.
Can Welsh dragons bring fire?
Picking on a combination basis would work against Wales players. So would picking on the basis of Test results. With no Welsh coach in the room, there may not be anyone banging the table on their behalf. The job for Farrell and his team is to separate the individual quality from the team's performances. There are very few backs in world rugby who look like a million dollars behind a retreating pack, but Tomos Williams has given frequent demonstrations with Gloucester how dangerous he can be when given something of a platform. Same with Murray with the Scarlets. Jac Morgan is competing in the most fiendishly competitive position at openside but do you give his consistently excellent performances for Wales extra credit – or does he have more involvements because he is on the back foot so much? But Farrell was brutally clear that he is not going to kowtow to the notion that each nation deserves a set representation.
Need for speed
Go back through past Lions squads, whether Louis Rees-Zammit in 2021, Anthony Watson in 2017 or Jason Robinson in 2001, and there has always been a gas merchant. Now pace is relative. The majority of the likely backline are by no means slow but by Test standards there is a lack of an out-and-out speedster, with the possible exception of Scotland's Darcy Graham who is as much elusive as electric. How much will this play into the hands of Feyi-Waboso as he slowly recovers from the shoulder surgery which was botched between the Rugby Football Union and Exeter? Or does Farrell have another candidate in mind to inject some raw speed into his backline?
Dropping a Pollock
At this stage, Henry Pollock can no longer be considered a long shot from left field. Only the astounding depth in the back row prevents him from being a certain selection given his recent performances. Either way it will be a controversial call: overlooking possibly the form player in Europe or selecting a one-cap England flanker ahead of far more established options such as Ben Curry, who was one England's best performers in the Six Nations, or Josh van der Flier. Pollock could still arrive as a call-up from England's tour to Argentina but Farrell must be tempted to unleash that youthful fearlessness that he once possessed in spades for Wigan and Great Britain.
Avoiding 'off-tour' adventures
Picking a Lions squad is not simply about picking the best of the best, it is also about the blend of personalities and the ability to be a good tourist. This is not to say that anyone will be selected for the quality of their banter or that they will not fight tooth and nail to get a starting shirt, but it is crucial that those players not picked for the first Test do not go 'off tour' as has happened previously. Farrell will have done his homework on those who react well to being overlooked. Several players for instance have commented that George Ford was instrumental in keeping standards high in England's training despite only being selected for the final match. Another factor that needs to be considered is the experience of Lions tours. Even those who went to South Africa in 2021 will not have had a full taste of it behind closed doors. There needs to be at least a cohort of senior players who can relay their experiences, both good and bad, to the rest of the group so the squad are not caught unawares by the intensity of a full-fat tour with fans.
About Schmidt
Finally, there is he who must not be named. Australia head coach Joe Schmidt has an outsized influence on the coaching careers of five of their coaches from his time in Ireland setting up a fascinating master-v-apprentices dynamic this summer. While Australia lost to Ireland in the autumn, the Wallabies often appeared to be one step ahead of what Farrell's team were doing, which was doubtless a sign of Schmidt's influence. The Lions coaching team want to be unpredictable in how they play Australia; might this also be reflected in a couple of curveball selections?
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