ASX set to slide, global markets fall on Middle East tensions; Oil rises
European shares skidded to an over one-month low on Thursday as escalating Middle East tensions and fears over potential US involvement rattled investors.
The pan-European STOXX 600 closed down for the third consecutive day with a 0.8 per cent drop to its lowest level since May 9.
Trading volumes remained thin as US markets were shut for a public holiday. The Australian sharemarket is set to slide lower, with futures at 4.52am AEST pointing to a fall of 28 points, or 0.3 per cent, at the open. The ASX dipped by less than 0.1 per cent on Thursday. The Australian dollar weakened. It was 0.5 per cent lower to 64.75 US cents at 5.23am.
The week-old Iran-Israel conflict showed no signs of deescalation.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump kept markets guessing about American involvement in air strikes on Tehran.
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Markets were hopeful of talks between the US and Iran, and between the European Union and Iran on Friday, leading to a potential de-escalation in tensions.
Much of the recent nervousness has been in markets centred around crude oil supply shocks, triggered by tensions in the oil-rich Middle East.
Oil prices rose on the day and boosted the energy sector by 0.8 per cent, emerging as the session's top performer.
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SBS Australia
31 minutes ago
- SBS Australia
'Unmitigated disaster': What Donald Trump could be weighing up on Iran
US President Donald Trump says he's considering whether or not to involve the US in the Israel-Iran conflict. Source: AAP, Press Association / Suzanne Plunkett As hostilities between Israel and Iran continue, United States President Donald Trump is keeping the world guessing as to what he might do next. Israel launched a sweeping aerial campaign against Iran a week ago, calling it a "pre-emptive" strike to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Iran has denied plans to develop such weapons and retaliated by launching counterstrikes on Israel. Trump has repeatedly criticised Iran, called for an "unconditional surrender", and floated the possibility of US action in Iran. On Thursday, Trump said he has yet to decide how the US would proceed, but will do so in the next two weeks. He has indicated there is still a chance of negotiating with Iran. "Based on the fact that there's a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks," press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters, quoting a message from Trump. Leavitt told a regular briefing at the White House that Trump was interested in pursuing a diplomatic solution with Iran, but his top priority was ensuring that Iran could not obtain a nuclear weapon. Professor Wesley Widmaier, from the Australian National University's Department of International Relations, said domestic policies could play a major role in Trump's decision. Widmaier said a portion of Trump's voter base may not support involvement in the conflict. "I think right now he is poised on the horns of a dilemma between the isolationist MAGA [Make America Great Again] coalition base and anti-Iran pro-Israel kind of foreign policy imperative," he said. "And politicians like to keep things ambiguous for as long as possible; it gives them maximum mobility." Widmaier said the two-week time frame will provide Trump with an extension to weigh up tensions in his supporter base, political strategy and pressure, and the US relationship with Israel. Michael Green, professor and CEO of the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, said Trump is likely deciding whether or not to use a 13,000kg Massive Ordnance Penetrator 'bunker buster' bomb on an Iranian underground nuclear facility. Only the US military has the bunker buster bomb. "I believe that the decision he has to make is whether or not the US drops that bunker-busting bomb on Fordo, the remaining intact part of Iran's nuclear weapons programs," he said. "The reason he might do it is because the Israelis believe that the Iranians are weeks away from creating nuclear weapons capability. The reason to not do it is because there's no guarantee of success." Trump has not outlined exactly what US involvement in Iran could look like, but he has floated several possible scenarios. Comments and social media posts about his plans have veered from proposing a swift diplomatic solution to suggesting the US might join the fighting on Israel's side. On Wednesday, he said nobody knew what he would do. A day earlier, he mused on social media about killing Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, then demanded Iran's unconditional surrender. Iran has warned of "all-out war" if the US joins the military action. Green said while the Iranian regime is vulnerable, it could still "lash out" and cause threats to US forces and allied interests. He said Trump may be hoping the threat of the bunker buster bomb could influence Iranians to agree to peacefully give up their nuclear capability. "I am sceptical that Iran will, even under this huge amount of pressure, give up their nuclear program, [but] they might agree to meet, they might agree to talk about it, to dissipate the pressure," he said. "The most likely scenario is they put something out there to save themselves and it will be debated whether it's enough, and Donald Trump may or may not take it." Widmaier said he believes the US bombing Iran would be a "disaster". "My sense is this would all be leading to a disaster. It would just be a disaster for the region, it would be a disaster for American foreign policy," he said. If the Trump administration decides to pursue US action in Iran, Widmaier said it would need to have clear aims and a clear exit strategy. He said the US government would also want to be sure of public support if it were to take action. "These are lessons of the Vietnam war, these are lessons of the Iraq war, and I see no sense that they really know what they want," Widmaier said. Wars are easy to start, but hard to end. Wesley Windmaier "I say with a high level of confidence that it would be an unmitigated disaster, and it's something absolutely to be avoided. "I don't think you need a PhD to see that, given the disastrous military interventions that are a history of US foreign policy." While Trump has publicly criticised Iran and sided with Israel, US action against Iran is not guaranteed. In the next two weeks, Trump will weigh up different factors and scenarios, including opposition from some of his Republican colleagues, some of whom have said the US should avoid war. Kentucky senator Rand Paul said he hoped Trump would not give in to pressure to get involved. "It's not the US' job to be involved in this war," Paul said on NBC's Meet the Press on Sunday. Republican representative Thomas Massie of Kentucky said on X: "This is not our war. We should not engage our military here." Widmaier said it's possible the president could opt out of the US becoming directly involved in another Middle East conflict. He pointed out Trump does have a record of holding off in the context of Iran. "In his first term, he came right up to the brink of ordering some strikes against Iranian sites, and he backed off at the last possible minute," Widmaier said. "So he does seem to have some inhibitions against, it may be that at the last minute he pulls back ... he does have a pragmatic streak too." — Additional reporting by Reuters and the Australian Associated Press
News.com.au
2 hours ago
- News.com.au
Top Iran, EU diplomats to hold nuclear talks
European foreign ministers will hold nuclear talks with their Iranian counterpart on Friday, as President Donald Trump mulls the prospect of US involvement in the Iran-Israel war. Israel, saying Iran was on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon, launched a massive wave of strikes a week ago, triggering an immediate retaliation. On the ground, Israel's military said it struck dozens of targets in Tehran overnight, including what it called a centre for the "research and development of Iran's nuclear weapons project". In Israel, sirens sounded after missiles were launched from Iran, the army said, while police said they, emergency response teams and bomb disposal experts were operating "at the site of a projectile impact" in a southern city. European leaders have urged de-escalation in Iran's war with Israel, while Trump has said he would decide "within the next two weeks" whether to involve the United States in the fighting. Israel, the United States and other Western powers accuse Iran of seeking an atomic weapon, a charge that it denies. Iran had been enriching uranium to 60 percent -- far above the 3.67-percent limit set by a 2015 deal, but still short of the 90 percent needed for a nuclear warhead. - 'A window now exists' - Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will meet with his French, German, British and EU counterparts in Geneva on Friday to discuss Iran's nuclear programme. He will also address the UN Human Rights Council, the body's spokesman said. Britain's Foreign Secretary David Lammy said "a window now exists within the next two weeks to achieve a diplomatic solution", while agreeing with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio that "Iran can never develop or acquire a nuclear weapon". German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said the United States was both aware and supportive of the meeting taking place in Geneva. "Iran should be mindful that it needs to show a new level of seriousness and trustworthiness if it wants to avoid a prolongation" of the war," he said. France's foreign ministry spokesperson Christophe Lemoine said the diplomatic route would be the only way to ensure Iran respects its obligations under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. "Military solutions are not long-term solutions," he told French radio station Cnews. Iran's Araghchi, however, rejected any prospect of talks with the United States so long as Israel continues its attacks. "The Americans have repeatedly sent messages calling seriously for negotiations. But we have made clear that as long as the aggression does not stop, there will be no place for diplomacy and dialogue," he said. - 'Speculation' - The UN Security Council is also due to convene on Friday for a second session on the conflict, which was requested by Iran with support from Russia, China and Pakistan, a diplomat told AFP on Wednesday. Speaking to CNN, chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency Rafael Grossi said that while Iran is the world's only non-declared nuclear power to enrich uranium to 60 percent, there was currently no evidence it had all the components to make a functioning nuclear warhead. "So, saying how long it would take for them, it would be pure speculation because we do not know whether there was somebody, you know, secretly pursuing these activities," Grossi said. "We haven't seen that and we have to say it." White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Iran was "a couple of weeks" away from producing an atomic bomb. "If there's a chance for diplomacy the president's always going to grab it, but he's not afraid to use strength as well," Leavitt said. Any US involvement in Israel's campaign would be expected to involve the bombing of a crucial underground nuclear facility in Fordo, using powerful bunker-busting bombs that no other country possesses. - 'Collateral damage' - Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who supports the prospect of US involvement in the war, has sworn Iran will pay a "heavy price" after 40 people were wounded and several hospital wards destroyed in a missile attack. World Health Organization director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus called attacks on health facilities "appalling", while UN rights chief Volker Turk said civilians were being treated as "collateral damage". In Iran, people fleeing Israel's attacks described frightening scenes and difficult living conditions, including food shortages and limited internet access. "Those days and nights were very horrifying... hearing sirens, the wailing, the danger of being hit by missiles," University of Tehran student Mohammad Hassan told AFP, after returning to his native Pakistan. "People are really panicking," a 50-year-old Iranian pharmacist who did not want to be named told AFP at a crossing on the border with Turkey. - Nuclear sites - On Thursday, Israel said it struck "dozens" of Iranian targets, including the partially built Arak nuclear reactor and a uranium enrichment facility in Natanz. Iranian atomic energy agency chief Mohammad Eslami confirmed in a letter to the UN nuclear watchdog that the Arak reactor was hit, demanding action to stop Israel's "violation of international regulations". In the central Israeli city of Bat Yam, the body of a woman was found at a site hit on Sunday, taking the death toll in Israel from Iranian missiles since June 13 to 25 people, according to authorities. Iran said on Sunday that Israeli strikes had killed at least 224 people, including military commanders, nuclear scientists and civilians.
The Advertiser
2 hours ago
- The Advertiser
Diplomatic push takes shape a week into Israel-Iran war
Israel and Iran are exchanging strikes a week into their war as President Donald Trump considers US military involvement and new diplomatic efforts appear to be under way. Trump has been weighing whether to attack Iran by striking its well-defended Fordo uranium enrichment facility, which is buried under a mountain and widely considered to be out of reach of all but America's "bunker-buster" bombs. He said he would decide within two weeks whether the US military will get directly involved in the war given the "substantial chance" for renewed negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi appeared headed to Geneva on Friday for meetings with the European Union's top diplomat and counterparts from the United Kingdom, France and Germany. Britain's foreign secretary said he met at the White House with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and envoy Steve Witkoff to discuss the potential for a deal that could cool the conflict. Israel said it conducted air strikes into Friday morning in Iran with more than 60 aircraft hitting what it said were industrial sites to manufacture missiles. It also said it hit the headquarters of Iran's Organisation of Defensive Innovation and Research, known by its acronym in Farsi, SPND. The US in the past has linked that agency to alleged Iranian research and testing tied to the possible development of nuclear explosive devices. Israeli air strikes reached into the city of Rasht on the Caspian Sea early on Friday, Iranian media reported. The Israeli military had warned the public to flee the area around Rasht's Industrial City, but with Iran's internet shut off to the outside world, it's unclear how many people could see the message. In Israel, paramedic service Magen David Adom said missiles struck a residential area in southern Israel causing damage to buildings, including one six-storey building. Five people were treated for minor injuries such as bruises, smoke inhalation and anxiety, it said. This came a day after at least 80 patients and medical workers were wounded in a strike on the Soroka Medical Centre in the southern city of Beersheba. On Thursday, Israel's defence minister threatened Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei after the Iranian missile crashed into the hospital. Israel's military "has been instructed and knows that in order to achieve all of its goals, this man absolutely should not continue to exist", Defence Minister Israel Katz said. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he trusted that Trump would "do what's best for America". Speaking from the rubble and shattered glass around the hospital, he added: "I can tell you that they're already helping a lot." The war between Israel and Iran erupted June 13 with Israeli air strikes targeting nuclear and military sites, top generals and nuclear scientists. At least 657 people, including 263 civilians, have been killed in Iran and more than 2000 wounded, according to a Washington-based Iranian human rights group. Iran has retaliated by firing 450 missiles and 1000 drones at Israel, according to Israeli army estimates. Most have been shot down by Israel's multi-tiered air defences, but at least 24 people in Israel have been killed and hundreds wounded. Iran has long maintained its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, but it is the only non-nuclear-weapon state to enrich uranium up to 60 per cent, a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90 per cent. The Israeli air campaign has targeted Iran's enrichment site at Natanz, centrifuge workshops around Tehran, a nuclear site in Isfahan and what the army assesses to be most of Iran's ballistic missile launchers. The destruction of those launchers has contributed to the steady decline in Iranian attacks since the start of the conflict. Israel and Iran are exchanging strikes a week into their war as President Donald Trump considers US military involvement and new diplomatic efforts appear to be under way. Trump has been weighing whether to attack Iran by striking its well-defended Fordo uranium enrichment facility, which is buried under a mountain and widely considered to be out of reach of all but America's "bunker-buster" bombs. He said he would decide within two weeks whether the US military will get directly involved in the war given the "substantial chance" for renewed negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi appeared headed to Geneva on Friday for meetings with the European Union's top diplomat and counterparts from the United Kingdom, France and Germany. Britain's foreign secretary said he met at the White House with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and envoy Steve Witkoff to discuss the potential for a deal that could cool the conflict. Israel said it conducted air strikes into Friday morning in Iran with more than 60 aircraft hitting what it said were industrial sites to manufacture missiles. It also said it hit the headquarters of Iran's Organisation of Defensive Innovation and Research, known by its acronym in Farsi, SPND. The US in the past has linked that agency to alleged Iranian research and testing tied to the possible development of nuclear explosive devices. Israeli air strikes reached into the city of Rasht on the Caspian Sea early on Friday, Iranian media reported. The Israeli military had warned the public to flee the area around Rasht's Industrial City, but with Iran's internet shut off to the outside world, it's unclear how many people could see the message. In Israel, paramedic service Magen David Adom said missiles struck a residential area in southern Israel causing damage to buildings, including one six-storey building. Five people were treated for minor injuries such as bruises, smoke inhalation and anxiety, it said. This came a day after at least 80 patients and medical workers were wounded in a strike on the Soroka Medical Centre in the southern city of Beersheba. On Thursday, Israel's defence minister threatened Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei after the Iranian missile crashed into the hospital. Israel's military "has been instructed and knows that in order to achieve all of its goals, this man absolutely should not continue to exist", Defence Minister Israel Katz said. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he trusted that Trump would "do what's best for America". Speaking from the rubble and shattered glass around the hospital, he added: "I can tell you that they're already helping a lot." The war between Israel and Iran erupted June 13 with Israeli air strikes targeting nuclear and military sites, top generals and nuclear scientists. At least 657 people, including 263 civilians, have been killed in Iran and more than 2000 wounded, according to a Washington-based Iranian human rights group. Iran has retaliated by firing 450 missiles and 1000 drones at Israel, according to Israeli army estimates. Most have been shot down by Israel's multi-tiered air defences, but at least 24 people in Israel have been killed and hundreds wounded. Iran has long maintained its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, but it is the only non-nuclear-weapon state to enrich uranium up to 60 per cent, a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90 per cent. The Israeli air campaign has targeted Iran's enrichment site at Natanz, centrifuge workshops around Tehran, a nuclear site in Isfahan and what the army assesses to be most of Iran's ballistic missile launchers. The destruction of those launchers has contributed to the steady decline in Iranian attacks since the start of the conflict. Israel and Iran are exchanging strikes a week into their war as President Donald Trump considers US military involvement and new diplomatic efforts appear to be under way. Trump has been weighing whether to attack Iran by striking its well-defended Fordo uranium enrichment facility, which is buried under a mountain and widely considered to be out of reach of all but America's "bunker-buster" bombs. He said he would decide within two weeks whether the US military will get directly involved in the war given the "substantial chance" for renewed negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi appeared headed to Geneva on Friday for meetings with the European Union's top diplomat and counterparts from the United Kingdom, France and Germany. Britain's foreign secretary said he met at the White House with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and envoy Steve Witkoff to discuss the potential for a deal that could cool the conflict. Israel said it conducted air strikes into Friday morning in Iran with more than 60 aircraft hitting what it said were industrial sites to manufacture missiles. It also said it hit the headquarters of Iran's Organisation of Defensive Innovation and Research, known by its acronym in Farsi, SPND. The US in the past has linked that agency to alleged Iranian research and testing tied to the possible development of nuclear explosive devices. Israeli air strikes reached into the city of Rasht on the Caspian Sea early on Friday, Iranian media reported. The Israeli military had warned the public to flee the area around Rasht's Industrial City, but with Iran's internet shut off to the outside world, it's unclear how many people could see the message. In Israel, paramedic service Magen David Adom said missiles struck a residential area in southern Israel causing damage to buildings, including one six-storey building. Five people were treated for minor injuries such as bruises, smoke inhalation and anxiety, it said. This came a day after at least 80 patients and medical workers were wounded in a strike on the Soroka Medical Centre in the southern city of Beersheba. On Thursday, Israel's defence minister threatened Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei after the Iranian missile crashed into the hospital. Israel's military "has been instructed and knows that in order to achieve all of its goals, this man absolutely should not continue to exist", Defence Minister Israel Katz said. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he trusted that Trump would "do what's best for America". Speaking from the rubble and shattered glass around the hospital, he added: "I can tell you that they're already helping a lot." The war between Israel and Iran erupted June 13 with Israeli air strikes targeting nuclear and military sites, top generals and nuclear scientists. At least 657 people, including 263 civilians, have been killed in Iran and more than 2000 wounded, according to a Washington-based Iranian human rights group. Iran has retaliated by firing 450 missiles and 1000 drones at Israel, according to Israeli army estimates. Most have been shot down by Israel's multi-tiered air defences, but at least 24 people in Israel have been killed and hundreds wounded. Iran has long maintained its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, but it is the only non-nuclear-weapon state to enrich uranium up to 60 per cent, a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90 per cent. The Israeli air campaign has targeted Iran's enrichment site at Natanz, centrifuge workshops around Tehran, a nuclear site in Isfahan and what the army assesses to be most of Iran's ballistic missile launchers. The destruction of those launchers has contributed to the steady decline in Iranian attacks since the start of the conflict. Israel and Iran are exchanging strikes a week into their war as President Donald Trump considers US military involvement and new diplomatic efforts appear to be under way. Trump has been weighing whether to attack Iran by striking its well-defended Fordo uranium enrichment facility, which is buried under a mountain and widely considered to be out of reach of all but America's "bunker-buster" bombs. He said he would decide within two weeks whether the US military will get directly involved in the war given the "substantial chance" for renewed negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi appeared headed to Geneva on Friday for meetings with the European Union's top diplomat and counterparts from the United Kingdom, France and Germany. Britain's foreign secretary said he met at the White House with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and envoy Steve Witkoff to discuss the potential for a deal that could cool the conflict. Israel said it conducted air strikes into Friday morning in Iran with more than 60 aircraft hitting what it said were industrial sites to manufacture missiles. It also said it hit the headquarters of Iran's Organisation of Defensive Innovation and Research, known by its acronym in Farsi, SPND. The US in the past has linked that agency to alleged Iranian research and testing tied to the possible development of nuclear explosive devices. Israeli air strikes reached into the city of Rasht on the Caspian Sea early on Friday, Iranian media reported. The Israeli military had warned the public to flee the area around Rasht's Industrial City, but with Iran's internet shut off to the outside world, it's unclear how many people could see the message. In Israel, paramedic service Magen David Adom said missiles struck a residential area in southern Israel causing damage to buildings, including one six-storey building. Five people were treated for minor injuries such as bruises, smoke inhalation and anxiety, it said. This came a day after at least 80 patients and medical workers were wounded in a strike on the Soroka Medical Centre in the southern city of Beersheba. On Thursday, Israel's defence minister threatened Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei after the Iranian missile crashed into the hospital. Israel's military "has been instructed and knows that in order to achieve all of its goals, this man absolutely should not continue to exist", Defence Minister Israel Katz said. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he trusted that Trump would "do what's best for America". Speaking from the rubble and shattered glass around the hospital, he added: "I can tell you that they're already helping a lot." The war between Israel and Iran erupted June 13 with Israeli air strikes targeting nuclear and military sites, top generals and nuclear scientists. At least 657 people, including 263 civilians, have been killed in Iran and more than 2000 wounded, according to a Washington-based Iranian human rights group. Iran has retaliated by firing 450 missiles and 1000 drones at Israel, according to Israeli army estimates. Most have been shot down by Israel's multi-tiered air defences, but at least 24 people in Israel have been killed and hundreds wounded. Iran has long maintained its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, but it is the only non-nuclear-weapon state to enrich uranium up to 60 per cent, a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90 per cent. The Israeli air campaign has targeted Iran's enrichment site at Natanz, centrifuge workshops around Tehran, a nuclear site in Isfahan and what the army assesses to be most of Iran's ballistic missile launchers. The destruction of those launchers has contributed to the steady decline in Iranian attacks since the start of the conflict.
