A Kerala bellwether is voting. Why CM Pinarayi Vijayan has staked all in Nilambur
In the by-poll, Shoukath faces a formidable challenge from the Left Democratic Front (LDF)'s M Swaraj. The ruling Left Front has unleashed a no-holds barred campaign spearheaded by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, driving home the significance of the by-election to their fortunes.
In Nilambur, none of the people seem to refer to Shoukath by his name, or even the famous Aryadan surname: It's always Bapputty, his nickname from childhood. For sure Shoukath might pass off as a 40-year-old even today, but he has turned 61 this year, breaking out after waiting forever in the wings, behind his father and Congress stalwart Aryadan Muhammed.
Bapputty…Bapputty…, an old man with a dishevelled look calls out to Aryadan Shoukath—the United Democratic Front candidate in the much-hyped Nilambur by-election—as his campaign vehicle makes his way through Vazhikkadavu. Shoukath disembarks and gives the man a hug, whispers something in his ear, and moves on. With assembly elections just a few months away, the 19 June by-poll has truly become a bellwether.
Anvar's failed gambit
The mercurial PV Anvar adds colour to the contest. Afterall, his resignation as the Left-backed independent triggered the election in the first place. When Anvar resigned earlier this year, he had pledged his support for the UDF – only to fall out when the Congress nominated his arch-nemesis, Aryadan Shoukath, as its candidate. Both Shoukath and Anvar are close relatives, as Shoukath's mother, PV Mariyumma, comes from Anvar's 'Puthen Veetil' family at Edavanna.
After his resignation, Anvar initially recommended Malappuram District Congress Committee (DCC) president VS Joy, a Christian face, as a UDF candidate. Anvar was casting two birds with one stone—aside from his hatred for Shoukath, he wanted to ensure that Joy wouldn't become a hindrance for him if he decided to contest from the neighbouring Thiruvambady in 2026. The Congress saw red when Anvar went on a tirade against Shoukath in his typical manner, which resulted in the UDF closing its door on him for the time being.
While Anvar is back in the fray, the original cause behind his resignation—the slew of allegations he had made against Kerala chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan—is not on top of his poll agenda anymore. Anvar's goal is limited to playing spoiler and ensuring the defeat of Shoukath, thus proving his utility to the UDF in the run-up to the 2026 assembly election.
A random visitor to the Nilambur constituency might walk away with the impression that Anvar is the frontrunner. The moneybags politician has put up several hoardings, despite being decimated in terms of feet on the ground. Nilambur is a rare instance of a constituency where the Congress has more cadres on the ground than the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M). Along with ally Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and its well-oiled party machinery, the UDF has more than matched the Left campaign blitzkrieg.
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The Aryadan Muhammed factor
Aryadan Muhammed, who contested eleven elections between 1965 and 2016, is still very much a factor in this constituency, tucked away in the foothills of the Western Ghats. Nilambur is the only constituency in the Muslim-majority Malappuram district where the community doesn't constitute an absolute majority.
Aryadan Muhammed, mononymously called Aryadan, was a most unique politician. He took on the Islamists and Muslim orthodoxy from within the UDF, playing a balancing role to the IUML brand of identity politics. He had utility not just for the Congress, but even beyond it. Aryadan didn't hesitate to take on the IUML when it came to larger issues involving the Muslim community. And he was even more vehement in his criticism of the communal elements within the Muslim fold, such as preacher Abdul Nasar Madany, the Popular Front of India, and the Jamaat-e-Islami.
The secular image that Aryadan bore ensured that he kept winning from Nilambur, despite the IUML cadres not always being on the same page. Aryadan's aversion to the IUML (and the Communists) is rooted in his childhood experiences.
Aryadan's eldest brother, Alawi Haji, was a leader within the Muhammad Ali Jinnah-led All-India Muslim League (AIML) at a time when Malappuram was witnessing demands for a 'Moplahstan' (along the lines of Pakistan).
Their father was an unlettered timber merchant, and young Aryadan came to be enchanted with the Indian National Congress. In an interview with me in 2021, Aryadan told me how his antipathy to the Communists began: 'On August 15 1947, as a bunch of us were marching with the Indian flag, another procession with a smattering of black and red flags came from the opposite direction. It was led by Communist leaders TK Madhavan and Kunjunni. They refused to acknowledge India's Independence'.
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Shoukath's long apprenticeship
Aryadan Shoukath is very much in the mould of his father. A late bloomer of sorts, Shoukath was initially into script-writing and grassroots politics. His later stints as the president of the Nilambur Panchayat and chairman of the Nilambur municipality won him plaudits from the Left government. He also won awards and accolades for his socially-conscious films. The theme of his movies – such as Paadam Onnu: Oru Vilapam (2003), and Daivanamathil (2005) – exposing the Jamaat-e-Islami and casting the orthodoxy in poor light, brought him the ire of fundamentalist elements.
Shoukath's long wait for a Congress ticket to the assembly seemed to end in 2016, when the senior Aryadan bowed out of electoral politics. All those waiting to strike back at Aryadan, however, got their chance to accomplish that—by defeating his son on the plank of anti-dynastic politics. Shoukath's election loss to Anvar gradually brought a subtle change of approach to Shoukath's politics, with his attack on fundamentalists becoming less frequent.
Shoukath was overlooked for the Nilambur ticket in 2021, and Oommen Chandy's death emboldened his detractors further. With VS Joy shifting his loyalties to the KC Venugopal camp and forming an axis with AP Anil Kumar, Shoukath began to get sidelined in Malappuram.
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Shoukath's temptations
Nevertheless, Shoukath and his faction kept themselves busy by organising parallel programmes, and eventually brought themselves on a collision course with the party last year. Shoukath, perhaps, was warming up to the CPI-M. According to some sections of Kerala media, he was exploring his options beyond the Congress, with the Marxists ever willing to appropriate him. Earlier this year, while Shoukath was recuperating from a leg injury, I visited him at his home, located right in the middle of Nilambur town.
He stridently ruled out the possibility of contesting as a Left-backed independent if the Congress went ahead with Joy—even if the Marxist leaders in Malappuram thought otherwise. A restive Shoukath had already 60 at the time, and knew at the back of his head that the by-election was his last bus to becoming the people's representative of Nilambur. It was evident that Shoukath had gone softer on the Marxists, unlike his father, who remained a die-hard anti-Marxist until his death in 2022.
Matters came to a head in April as the by-poll approached, with VS Joy's name gaining an upper hand over Shoukath's. Congress had nearly fixed Joy as part of a strategy to address the Syro-Malabar Church's displeasure with it over the Munambam issue. Journalists in Nilambur told me that the CPI-M sent feelers to Shoukath at this stage, with the party allegedly deputing its former Thrippunithura legislator and Nilambur-native M Swaraj to handle it.
However, with the appointment of Sunny Joseph as state chief, replacing K Sudhakaran, Shoukath pipped Joy to the Congress ticket. And, in an ironic twist, Swaraj was nominated by the CPI-M to take him on in Nilambur.
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The importance of being M Swaraj
Unlike Aryadan Shoukath, who has lived all his life in Nilambur, M Swaraj has spent most of his life outside it. Swaraj's elevation as state secretary of the Students Federation of India (SFI) in 2005 coincided with Pinarayi Vijayan's capture of the state organisation, in the wake of the Malappuram state conference. Swaraj never hid his admiration for Vijayan, perhaps even modelling himself on the Kannur strongman. He was fielded from Thrippunithura in 2016, against minister K Babu, who was then facing allegations in the bar bribery scandal.
Swaraj emerged a giant-killer in the election, even if a ministry remained out of bounds. His arrogant ways didn't go down too well with the people of Kochi, though, and K Babu was able to exact his revenge in 2021. That defeat left Swaraj shaken, and for some strange reason, he seemed to hold the media in Kerala responsible for his loss. Until the swift rise of Vijayan's son-in-law Mohammed Riyas, many in the Left ecosystem had marked Swaraj out as a potential future CM.
After that, as Swaraj's well-wishers might argue, he has been picked on unfairly. This is especially evident from the remarks targeting him in the CPI-M state conference in Kollam earlier this year. This was seen as a political move designed to fasttrack Riyas into the CPI-M Central Committee, although it didn't eventually materialise for other reasons. This is a far cry from Swaraj's heady days, when he called for VS Achuthanandan's 'capital punishment' – expulsion in Marxist lingo – at the 2012 CPI-M state conference held in Thiruvananthapuram.
Despite the enthusiasm around his candidature, there are whispers in the Left ecosystem about Swaraj's uncertain future in case he loses this election. In normal course, the CPI-M simply doesn't possess enough political votes in Nilambur constituency to ensure its win. However, this is anything but a normal election, with many variables, including PV Anvar.
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Anvar's chances
PV Anvar is essentially aiming to emerge as a spoiler for Aryadan Shoukath, thereby proving his worth to the UDF, where he still hopes to find a perch in the run-up to the 2026 assembly election.
Anvar initially claimed at a press conference that he had 25,000 votes in the constituency, but that is a tall order. Realistically, Anvar is looking to cross 15,000 votes. The Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI)'s Sadik Naduthodi contesting as an independent—and Anvar getting allotted the 'scissor' symbol which was assigned earlier to the SDPI in Nilambur—might suggest a covert understanding to transfer votes.
Then, there is Jamaat-e-Islami. From the day of Anvar's public rebellion against the Left, the Jamaat and its media outfits such as MediaOne have been his biggest cheerleaders. There is a reason for that, though. Many of the allegations that Anvar raised against the Left were Jamaat's talking points over the years. 'Out of Focus', a show on MediaOne, remains steadfast in its support for Anvar.
Therefore, even if the Welfare Party of India—the Jamaat's political wing—might publicly extend its support to the UDF, it is very likely that its cadres would vote en masse for Anvar. Even then, polling figures over the years suggest that both the SDPI and Jamaat cannot fetch Anvar more than 7,500 votes in Nilambur.
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BJP's Christian outreach
One reason for the Left fielding M Swaraj over independent faces was ensuring that its political votes remained intact and did not shift to Anvar.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had initially mulled staying out of the contest, given that it has a really poor record in the constituency. However, it later fielded a defector from the Kerala Congress (Joseph), Mohan George. George, an advocate by profession, took membership of the BJP the day after he was named candidate. He is also a former office bearer of the Syrian Marthoma Church in the constituency, where the Marthomites number around 6,000.
Essentially, Mohan George's candidature is an extension of the BJP's experiment of chipping away at the Christian vote bank of Congress. However, the Christians in Nilambur, who number around 40,000 as of 2011, are more political than the ones in central Kerala. The move comes with its own risk — the BJP faces the prospect of some of its Hindu votes going to the CPI-M, given Swaraj's Nair credentials. In fact, the Akhil Bharat Hindu Mahasabha's support for the Left is being seen in this light.
If the BJP ends up a poor fourth behind Anvar, it will turn out to be a massive embarrassment for Rajeev Chandrasekhar in his first test as state president.
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IUML's predicament
That the IUML has no representation in the Nilambur municipality is a strange phenomenon. The legacy of the cold war between the IUML and Aryadan Muhammed is primarily responsible for this. Unlike elsewhere in Malappuram, where the Congress plays second fiddle to the IUML, Nilambur is very much an exception. The senior Aryadan always found ways to win – and win handsomely despite the IUML's reluctance to support him. Naturally, there were apprehensions about the two parties matching their wavelengths at the beginning of the campaign.
Despite initial hiccups – such as the IUML's Panakkad Thangals being conspicuous in their absence at the UDF convention – the cadres seemed to get their act together. Shoukath enjoys massive goodwill in the constituency, and knows a lot of people by name, underscoring his people connect. Nilambur is part of the Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency, and Shoukath's roadshow with Priyanka Gandhi Vadra turned out to be a hit.
Meanwhile, Pinarayi Vijayan remains the star campaigner of the Left despite turning 80, and took time out to address rallies in every panchayat in the constituency. With massive anti-incumbency at play, a win against all odds in Nilambur will be the harbinger of a third term and deflate the Congress. However, the Left is aware that victory won't come easy this time.
A parallel can be drawn between Swaraj's campaign and a rising P Sreeramakrishnan's in 2006, where the Marxist party seemed to pull out all stops—only to lose by over 18,000 votes.
This election is much closer, with the delimitation of constituencies in 2009 also boosting the Left's prospects. Add to that the damage that Anvar might inflict on the UDF and the BJP votes the Left might attract. These factors make the election a really unpredictable affair.
Anand Kochukudy is a Kerala-based journalist and columnist. He tweets @AnandKochukudy. Views are personal.
(Edited by Zoya Bhatti)
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