Singapore shares dip ahead of Fed decision; STI down 0.3%

The benchmark Straits Times Index (STI) lost 0.3 per cent or 9.83 points to close at 3,920.81. PHOTO: ST FILE
SINGAPORE - Stocks on the local bourse fell on Wednesday (Jun 18), tracking the mixed performance in other Asian markets, as investors awaited the US Federal Reserve's policy decision and release of its updated dot plot.
The benchmark Straits Times Index (STI) lost 0.3 per cent or 9.83 points to close at 3,920.81.
Across the broader market, decliners outnumbered advancers 243 to 212, with 822.1 million securities worth $905.7 million changing hands.
The biggest gainer on the STI was telco giant Singtel, which rose 1 per cent or $0.04 to $3.97. The uptick followed news that its subsidiary Optus Mobile had reached a settlement with the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, over court proceedings related to alleged sales misconduct.
At the bottom of the index was agribusiness Wilmar International. The counter slid 2.7 per cent or S$0.08 to $2.93, after Indonesian authorities seized 11.8 trillion rupiah (S$928 million) from its parent company, Wilmar Group, in a palm-oil graft case.
Meanwhile, the trio of local banks ended in the red. DBS fell 0.5 per cent or $0.23 to $44.23; UOB was down 0.3 per cent or $0.12 at $34.83; and OCBC lost 0.3 per cent or $0.05 to close at $16.04.
Elsewhere in the region, key indices ended mixed as investor sentiment remained cautious ahead of the Fed's policy decision. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.9 per cent and South Korea's Kospi was up 0.7 per cent. The Bursa Malaysia KLCI ended flat, Australia's ASX 200 shed 0.1 per cent, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng slid 1.1 per cent.
The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting on Wednesday, said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank.
She noted that the base case remains for two rate cuts this year, with the first unlikely to happen before September, based on Fed funds futures pricing. Ahead of the decision, the probability of a September cut stood at around 63 per cent.
'While the economic projections and dot plot could shift market expectations, rising geopolitical and trade uncertainties mean the Fed's growth and inflation forecasts may lack precision,' she added.
She cautioned that any signals from the dot plot should be taken 'with a grain of salt', as the Fed is likely to emphasise that policy remains appropriately positioned and that future moves will depend on incoming data. THE BUSINESS TIMES
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Turbulence ahead: How used cooking oil could hinder aviation's green fuel hopes

Members of the public delivering their used cooking oil to Evergreen Oil and Feed joint collection drive with the Melaka City Council. PHOTO: SAIRIEN NAFIS Turbulence ahead: How used cooking oil could hinder aviation's green fuel hopes A joint investigation by The Straits Times and Climate Home News reveals how soaring demand for this key ingredient in sustainable aviation fuel has led to 'ridiculous' data and suspected fraud – undermining the industry's climate goals. – This is the starting point for the world's – and especially Europe's – lofty dreams of greener air travel: a collection point for plastic bottles filled with discarded frying oil in Malaysia. One Saturday morning in May 2025 in the city of Melaka, volunteers in green T-shirts rushed over as Ms Adibah Rahim and her husband drove into the central square, eager to unpack, weigh and register her consignment of used cooking oil (UCO) – the 'liquid gold' in European and Asian plans to ramp up production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Ms Rahim, a housewife, told The Straits Times it was her first time selling used oil, which she had collected over five to six months. She left the collection point RM90 (S$27) richer: At RM3 per litre of oil, it is a welcome boost to her family's household budget. Ms Rahim left the collection point RM90 (S$27) richer. PHOTO: SAIRIEN NAFIS 'We usually collect UCO from around 200 members of the public,' said Mr Michael Andrew, sales manager for Evergreen Oil & Feed, the company running the Melaka collection with the local council. Evergreen, which runs similar collection drives elsewhere in Malaysia, supplies leading European SAF producers such as Spain's Repsol, UK-based Shell and Finland's Neste, the operator of SAF refineries in Europe and Singapore. The aviation industry and many governments, including Singapore's, are pinning their hopes on SAF as a way to cut the sector's greenhouse gas emissions, which are set to increase as demand for flying grows. And fuel suppliers around the world are scrambling for raw materials to meet new legal SAF blending quotas in Europe and growing demand elsewhere. When it is made from waste such as UCO, rather than agricultural commodities such as soya or palm oil, SAF purportedly has up to 80 per cent less planet-heating emissions than kerosene jet fuel. And repurposing waste cooking oil avoids using land that would otherwise be used for food crops, or fuelling forest destruction. After purchasing the used cooking oil from the public, Evergreen Oil and Feed staff would transfer the oil to barrels for easy transportation to their filtration plant. PHOTO: SAIRIEN NAFIS But behind SAF's climate-friendly facade, a months-long investigation by Climate Home News and The Straits Times has uncovered an opaque global supply chain that exposes jet fuel providers and their aviation clients to significant fraud risks – raising doubts about the climate benefits of the sector's main green hope for the years ahead. The concern is that barely used and virgin palm oil – the latter is not permitted under European Union rules because of its links to rainforest loss – is being passed off as UCO that traders supply to fuel companies, experts and industry operators said. The investigation focused on the UCO trade between Malaysia, the world's second-biggest palm oil producer, and Spain, the EU's largest aviation market and home to one of its SAF pioneers – oil and gas giant Repsol. The investigation was funded by Journalismfund Europe. Fried in Spain? Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, Repsol chief executive Josu Jon Imaz held up his company's new €250 million (S$369 million) plant for renewable fuels, including SAF, near the historic Spanish port town of Cartagena as an example of how Europe can pursue a fair green transition. Repsol, which aims to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, started large-scale production of biodiesel and jet fuel – with its SAF mainly made from UCO – at the plant early in 2024. Repsol started large-scale production of biodiesel and jet fuel – with its SAF mainly made from UCO – at the plant early in 2024. PHOTO: MEGAN ROWLING, CLIMATE HOME NEWS Contrasting this with electric vehicles, many of them imported from China, Dr Imaz said the raw material for Repsol's renewable fuels 'comes from the Spanish farms and from the Spanish rural economy'. In a promotional video for those fuels, Spanish celebrity chef Susi Diaz is seen dispensing advice to young cooks in the kitchen of her La Finca restaurant. Olive oil is then poured out of a pan into steel jugs as a voiceover explains how the waste cooking residue will be sent to the Repsol biofuel refinery. The company is also promoting the recycling of UCO from Spanish households – of which it says only 5 per cent is currently collected – at its fuel stations across the country. Spain's restaurants and homes, however, are not the main source of Repsol's UCO. In 2024, more than 126,000 tonnes of UCO from Asia – enough to fill 50 Olympic-size swimming pools – arrived in the Spanish region of Murcia, where Repsol's flagship biofuel plant is located, according to trade data published by Spain's tax agency. Nearly two-thirds came from Malaysia, whose UCO exports to the region saw a tenfold rise in the same year that the energy heavyweight fired up its Cartagena SAF refinery. The figures do not specify who provided or bought the raw material. But trade data shows that Repsol purchased at least 53,000 tonnes of UCO from five Malaysian companies, including Evergreen Oil & Feed, in 2024. That amount represents 18 per cent of the UCO the Repsol plant in Cartagena uses annually. This is based on an analysis of Customs records provided by investigative consultancy Data Desk, which provided Climate Home News with a list of shipments of UCO certified for the European market, sourced from Malaysia by Repsol's trading unit in Singapore. No incidents of fraudulent UCO were detected in Repsol's supply chain, with imports meeting EU rules on green certification. Repsol told Climate Home News it 'complements with imports when necessary' and receives raw material shipments from more than 20 countries. It declined to provide more details about the imports for 'competitive reasons'. A view of Escombreras port, where energy companies including Repsol take delivery of oil, gas and biofuel cargoes, near Cartagena, Spain. PHOTO: MEGAN ROWLING, CLIMATE HOME NEWS Repsol's heavy reliance on Malaysian supplies exposes it to fraud risks that raise wider questions about global assertions over the sustainability of SAF. Asked what steps it takes to fight fraud, Repsol said it operates a rigorous supplier monitoring system to ensure the sustainability and integrity of its SAF production. A 'very strong' compliance process means dubious raw materials and suppliers suspected of misconduct are quickly weeded out, it added. 'Any type of fraud distorts the market and undermines the confidence in the system, so it must be fought with all possible legal means,' the company said in e-mailed comments. Shrinking air travel's carbon footprint Europe's green aviation fuel refineries are boosting output because of new requirements by the EU for planes to use more SAF in the coming decades. From the start of 2025, fuel supplied to airports across Europe needs to contain at least 2 per cent of SAF, with targets rising to 70 per cent by 2050. A million tonnes of SAF is needed to hit the EU's 2025 mandate, and this will rise to 2.7 million tonnes a year by 2030 to meet the 6 per cent mandate. SAF is crucial for shrinking aviation's carbon footprint, according to industry body the International Air Transport Association (Iata), and is expected to account for 65 per cent of emissions reductions by 2050, when the sector has committed to reaching net zero. An Airbus A350-1000 refuels with the Sustainable Aviation Fuel. PHOTO: LIANHE ZAOBAO In 2023, emissions from international plane travel accounted for 2.5 per cent of the world's energy-related carbon emissions. As air travel increases, and other sectors are more easily able to decarbonise, that share is set to grow. One of the reasons SAF is so attractive is that it is a drop-in fuel for planes, requiring no new additional infrastructure at airports. Current technology allows up to 50 per cent of SAF to be blended with fossil fuel-based jet fuel. Repsol's Dr Imaz told financial analysts early in 2024 that emissions-cutting alternatives to SAF – such as restricting short-haul flights – would represent 'a drop in the ocean'. Repsol's plant uses 300,000 tonnes of UCO to produce 250,000 tonnes of renewable fuels, including SAF and hydrotreated vegetable oil. But surging demand for UCO, SAF's feedstock of choice, and a far-from-perfect global certification system based on self-declaration at the start of the supply chain are encouraging fraud that undermines the new fuel's green credentials. An Evergreen Oil and Feed staff member pulls out a bottle of used cooking oil collected from members of the public. PHOTO: SAIRIEN NAFIS 'Ridiculous' export statistics This investigation found that by the time Asia-based traders ship UCO supplies overseas to refineries for processing into SAF, guaranteeing their environmental integrity is virtually impossible – despite the certification system on which fuel companies and airlines rely. A source at a leading Malaysian UCO supplier to companies including Repsol told ST that he suspects that both UCO collectors and restaurants are committing fraud by providing oil that does not qualify as used, although it is difficult to prove. In Malaysia, which is among the world's leading suppliers of UCO and virgin palm oil, government-subsidised cooking oil is cheaper than UCO – providing a clear incentive for fraud. Subsidised cooking oil sells for RM2.50 per kg versus the UCO trading price of up to RM4.50 per kg. In a 2024 report, Brussels-based environmental group Transport & Environment (T&E) cited figures showing that Malaysia already exports about three times as much UCO as it is estimated to collect domestically and import, raising concern about where that oil is coming from – and what it consists of. In 2023, 458,000 tonnes of UCO originating in Malaysia were registered with International Sustainability and Carbon Certification (ISCC), the leading certification scheme recognised by the European Commission to demonstrate compliance with its biofuel sustainability criteria. In absolute terms, that puts Malaysia second only to China, which registered 1.65 million tonnes. Malaysia's UCO volume, if indeed collected from its population, works out to 15.2 litres per person – the highest worldwide by far. This figure is 'ridiculous', said Mr Cian Delaney, campaign coordinator at T&E, adding that for it to be feasible, Malaysia would need to be 'a world-leading collection and refining system – which it isn't'. On the left are two of Evergreen Oil and Feed used cooking oil processing tanks. PHOTO: SAIRIEN NAFIS In comparison, China collected 1.4 litres per capita, while the figure is 0.9 litre in Indonesia and 3.8 litres in Spain. Malaysia's Deputy Minister of Plantation and Commodities Chan Foong Hin has previously acknowledged there is fraud in the country's UCO supply chain. He told Reuters in February 2025 that the government would crack down on this to uphold the country's 'reputation as a responsible exporter'. In a response to questions from ST, he said: 'To maintain supply chain integrity, various measures are in place, including traceability systems, certification requirements, and stringent export documentation. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board , in collaboration with other regulatory bodies, is actively monitoring the industry to prevent fraudulent activities.' He also said the government was strengthening enforcement mechanisms to uphold industry credibility. Opaque supply chain The waste ingredients from which SAF is made change hands multiple times in a largely opaque system. To verify their sustainability, European regulators rely on checks by private auditors and agencies that issue green certificates based on their findings. But there is a systemic blind spot: The restaurants, street stalls, households and factories from which the UCO is pooled self-declare the origin of their contributions. Aside from ad hoc spot checks and sampling, there is no way of knowing that all of these providers are telling the truth. 'The opportunity ... of fraud is very high,' said Mr Vasu R. Vasuthewan, former Malaysia head for the ISCC. The Malaysian authorities recently uncovered criminal syndicates that had pocketed thousands of dollars a day by getting hold of large amounts of subsidised cooking oil, mixing it in with UCO, and then selling it on to industrial UCO traders. A member of the public purchases a one kg bag of subsidised cooking oil. To prevent abuse, people can only purchase three bags in one transaction as these bags costs only RM2.50 each. PHOTO: BERNAMA Sources within the industry told Climate Home News and ST that many households and restaurants are motivated to replace cooking oil after a single use – contrary to the standard practice of three to five times – and then sell it on as UCO. Cooking oil is considered waste when it is no longer fit for frying. 'Restaurant compliance (with sustainability standards) may be very low,' said Mr Vasuthewan, who now runs his own UCO import and export business. 'Many will fake their declaration, hoping they won't get caught.' Mr Delaney of T&E said it is difficult for auditors to physically check the origin of the oil, since hundreds of restaurants can supply the same collection point, making it a 'notable blind spot'. Singapore, a global SAF hub in the making Singapore is a key part of the global SAF supply chain and is positioning itself as a leader in the production and usage of such fuel. The Republic is home to the world's largest SAF refinery by capacity: Neste's biofuel refinery in Tuas. Its SAF production capacity is one million tonnes a year. Government trade data shows that Singapore is a major importer of UCO from China and Malaysia; this is most likely for the Neste refinery. The Republic also has a licensing framework for local UCO collectors, who pick up UCO mainly from restaurants, hotels and commercial kitchens, with about 19,000 tonnes collected annually from 2021 to 2024, according to the National Environment Agency. A pre-treatment facility at Finnish energy giant Neste's expanded refinery in Tuas South, which was officially opened on May 17, 2023. The facility filters out and removes impurities from materials such as used cooking oil and waste animal fats that are used to make renewable fuels. ST PHOTO: CHONG JUN LIANG The Government regards SAF as a critical tool to reduce aviation emissions while allowing the industry to keep expanding and Changi Airport, one of the world's busiest, to keep growing. To ramp up SAF usage, from 2026, all flights departing Singapore's two civilian airports must use 1 per cent SAF. The goal is to reach 3 per cent to 5 per cent SAF use by 2030. Fraud is a concern for the authorities and the industry. The Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore (CAAS) told ST that it recognises the importance of ensuring transparency and integrity in SAF feedstocks. 'We are aware of concerns raised by various stakeholders, including the EU and the US, regarding fraudulent practices in the SAF supply chain. We share the same concerns as these pose risks to market confidence, fair trading and development of a nascent SAF market,' said CAAS chief sustainability officer Daniel Ng. He said the authority is working with the International Civil Aviation Organisation's Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection to develop 'harmonised standards for feedstock verification to prevent further fraudulent practices'. Neste told ST, in response to questions: 'Neste sources traceable UCO and other renewable raw materials globally from carefully selected suppliers. Neste evaluates its suppliers and accepts renewable raw materials only from those suppliers that are able to meet strict criteria for sustainability.' The Singapore Airlines Group said it works closely with its partners to ensure supplies meet internationally recognised standards such as the ISCC, and comply with regulatory requirements in jurisdictions with SAF mandates. Workers weigh the used cooking oil before Evergreen Oil and Feed's purchase. PHOTO: SAIRIEN NAFIS Spot checks, patchy audits There is a system in place to keep fraudulent stocks out of the supply chain. Buyers and regulators in Europe rely on audit companies to trace the raw materials used in SAF and prove their green credentials. Those audits are verified by authorised certification systems like the ISCC – which is led by the biofuel industry and, according to one source, enjoys 'a kind of monopoly' in the sector. It then issues sustainability certificates to commodities traders and fuel suppliers. According to the ISCC, its certification supports 'sustainable, fully traceable, deforestation-free and climate-friendly supply chains'. While in some cases auditors conduct random field checks, that happens less often in countries outside the EU, industry experts say. According to Mr James Cogan, compliance and markets lead at Irish biofuel firm ClonBio, it is far easier for fraud to occur outside the EU where 'it's much less visible to us'. A 2024 analysis by T&E in China, for example, showed that sampling of points of origin happened in less than 10 per cent of the ISCC-approved audits, whereas in the EU, it was about 30 per cent. Mr Adam Kirby, ISCC's senior sustainability manager, told Climate Home News that auditors monitor volumes going in and out of collection points for any suspicious behaviour, in addition to carrying out spot checks. He added that the ISCC follows the requirements established by regulators like the European Commission. In 2024, the ISCC also conducted 79 special 'integrity assessments' – around two-thirds targeting Asia-based suppliers – which independently monitored the work of auditors. In a third of the cases, it found violations of its certification requirements, including an inability to demonstrate the traceability of products, leading to the withdrawal of 11 certificates. Evergreen Oil and Feed employees loads a container full of used cooking oil into one of their trucks at the Waste to Wealth collection drive at Malacca City Hall. The oil will then be sent to their filtration plant for processing. PHOTO: SAIRIEN NAFIS Long paper trail Under the current system, the entire SAF supply chain relies on a long paper trail rooted in those self-declarations and sporadic inspections at the points where UCO is collected. In Malaysia, Evergreen's owner C.K. Lau told ST that the company follows the proper processes in its collection based on the requirements established by the ISCC. He added that the documentation is critical as, otherwise, the company would not be able to export its UCO. Evergreen Oil and Feed owner CK Lau at his company's used cooking oil filtration facility in Malacca. PHOTO: SAIRIEN NAFIS Repsol, for its part, said it requires 'suppliers to be certified under European Commission-recognised voluntary regimes'. In turn, airline companies that buy from Repsol, such as the International Airlines Group (IAG) – the parent company of British Airways, Iberia, Vueling, Aer Lingus and Level – rely on documentation they get from it and other jet fuel providers, to show that the SAF they are paying for has green certification. In exceptional cases, IAG has sent its own staff to carry out checks on the ground, as with a Shanghai-based Chinese supplier in 2024. It told Climate Home News the outcome of that audit – which included supply, record-keeping, environmental and health and safety standards – was 'positive'. Mr Robert Boyd, Boeing's Asia-Pacific sustainability lead who previously worked for Iata, believes airlines' exacting standards will bring positive change in the SAF industry. 'You'll see a race to the top... on sustainability, and it will, in a way, be self-regulated,' he added. SAF certification faces EU scrutiny In the meantime, following a string of fraud allegations about the authenticity of UCO-derived biofuels imported from China, the EU has been trying to ascertain whether the certification system that governments and businesses rely on is fit for purpose. The EU authorities have been in talks to strengthen that system, leading to speculation that the ISCC could be suspended for failing to catch cases of biodiesel fraud. The ISCC denied in a statement that regulators had considered halting automatic EU-wide acceptance of its certificates, adding that its relationship with the European Commission remained constructive. 'There are always bad actors, there are always bad people, and there's only a certain amount of policing that can be done in any industry,' said Mr Kirby. 'We at ISCC have done, I think, an incredible job.' The ISCC did not respond to follow-up questions from Climate Home News on whether it has full confidence in the current system, including self-declaration. A European Commission spokeswoman said the bloc's executive arm was closely monitoring the SAF market 'to detect and prevent fraud, which risks undermining the EU's ambition to effectively decarbonise air transport'. Two sample jars show used restaurant frying grease (right) and the refined end product of biodiesel. PHOTO: REUTERS Demand for UCO sizzles Demand for SAF and UCO is only expected to increase as usage in Europe, Asia and elsewhere grows and as new refineries are completed in China, South Korea and Malaysia. In 2024, Malaysia's state energy firm Petronas, Italy's Enilive, and Euglena of Japan announced they would develop a biorefinery at Petronas' Pengerang Integrated Complex in Johor. Due for completion in 2028, it would produce SAF and other biofuels. Malaysia plans to mandate SAF usage by 2027, with the initial goal of blending it into aviation fuel at a 1 per cent rate. Leading European refiners like Repsol are pushing for a level global playing field as well as more public funding to bring down costs and help develop the nascent sector on the continent. Iata warned earlier in June that the European mandates had caused the SAF price paid by airlines to double because of hefty compliance fees being charged by producers. Repsol's aviation head Carlos Suarez Cubillo warned that fuel producers in parts of the world with laxer rules could produce SAF 'with less regulation and less control of the feedstock... and here in Europe that could de-incentivise the production, the construction of new facilities'. In Brazil, for example, an emerging SAF industry is gearing up to use crop-based feedstocks that are commonly linked to deforestation – and are therefore banned in Europe – such as soya and palm oil, as well as sugarcane-based ethanol, which has been linked to labour abuses and modern slavery. An investigation by Climate Home News' partner in Brazil, InfoAmazonia, found that the palm oil producer behind a planned biorefinery in the Amazon region – billed as Brazil's first SAF project – is growing the crop on land areas subject to sanctions by the national environment agency over illegal deforestation, and is struggling financially after rights abuse allegations. Iata hopes its efforts to put in place a global registry for SAF, launched in April as a voluntary initiative, will boost transparency around feedstocks and their greenhouse gas savings – and enable airlines to have some level of visibility and comparability between countries, fuel providers and airports. SAF producers and airlines are also looking to other waste-based materials to meet rising mandates – especially as more advanced fuels made from hydrogen and carbon dioxide, known as e-SAF, are still being developed and tested. Repsol, for example, recently closed a deal with US vegetable oils giant Bunge to source camelina and safflower – non-food crops that can grow on poor land – to produce hydrotreated vegetable oil for biodiesel and SAF. In January, it also announced it would invest more than €800 million in Europe's first plant in the Catalan city of Tarragona to produce renewable methanol from organic urban waste, for use in maritime, road and aviation transport from 2029. But in the meantime, Europe's overwhelming reliance on UCO means it will continue to import supplies from Asia – despite the concerns over fraud, said Ms Sophie Byron, global head of biofuels pricing at S&P Global Commodity Insights. 'That trade flow is not going away any time soon,' she said. Additional reporting by Megan Rowling and Joe Lo, Climate Home News Azril Annuar is Malaysia correspondent at The Straits Times. David Fogarty is deputy foreign editor at The Straits Times and senior climate writer. He also covers the environment, in areas ranging from biodiversity to plastic pollution. Find out more about climate change and how it could affect you on the ST microsite here.