Indonesia President Prabowo to visit Singapore for Leaders' Retreat
[SINGAPORE] Indonesia's President Prabowo Subianto will be making a state visit to Singapore on Monday (Jun 16), in his first official visit to the Republic since his inauguration on Oct 20 last year.
Accompanied by a delegation of ministers, Prabowo will meet Prime Minister Lawrence Wong for the eighth annual Singapore-Indonesia Leaders' Retreat, said the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) on Sunday.
The Leader's Retreat is the highest-level platform between the two countries to discuss how to strengthen ties.
While here, Prabowo will also call on President Tharman Shanmugaratnam, who will host him at a state banquet.
This is the first time both PM Wong and Prabowo are attending the Leader's Retreat in their current capacities – but not the first time they are meeting at the event.
For last year's Leader's Retreat on Apr 29, held at Indonesia's Bogor state palace, PM Wong accompanied then-prime minister Lee Hsien Loong, in his capacity as deputy prime minister.
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There, they met Indonesia's then-president Joko Widodo and Prabowo – who was then president-elect. The leaders discussed topics ranging from cooperation in defence, the digital economy and the green economy, to potential investments in Indonesia's new capital of Nusantara in East Kalimantan.
At this year's Leader's Retreat, PM Wong and President Prabowo are expected to review the close ties between Singapore and Indonesia, and discuss how to deepen cooperation in areas such as defence, the green economy and connectivity, MFA said.
Ahead of the visit, Singapore and Indonesia on Friday signed three memorandums of understanding on cross-border electricity trade, carbon capture and storage, and a sustainable industrial zone.
These were signed by Singapore's Minister-in-charge of Energy and Science and Technology Tan See Leng and Indonesia's Minister for Energy and Mineral Resources Bahlil Lahadalia during the former's visit to Jakarta.
Strong bilateral ties
Singapore and Indonesia share a 'longstanding friendship', said MFA, noting that both countries have been collaborating closely with each other on a variety of bilateral issues.
One such area in which progress has been made is the Expanded Framework Agreements, which entered into force on Mar 21, 2024.
These comprise agreements dealing with air space management, defence cooperation and extradition of fugitives.
The countries also have deep economic and people-to-people ties.
Indonesia is Singapore's eight-largest trading partner, with bilateral trade of S$74.2 billion last year, indicated Singapore Department of Statistics data.
The Republic has also been Indonesia's top source of foreign direct investments since 2014, clocking US$20.1 billion worth of such investments last year.
Both countries are among each other's top source of visitor arrivals. Last year, Singapore had 2.49 million visitors from Indonesia, while Indonesia welcomed 1.4 million tourists from Singapore in 2023.
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Amid public calls to withdraw from the coalition, key partner parties Kia Tham, Prachachart, Democrat, and Chart Thai Pattana have decided to remain following party meetings on Thursday. The United Thai Nation, the second largest party remaining in the coalition, has said that it will only make a definite decision after holding talks with the prime minister. It has, however, called for Paetongtarn to resign, reported local media. News site Khaosod English reported the party is proposing that Pheu Thai's third-ranked candidate, Chaikasem Nitisiri, replace Paetongtarn. Meanwhile, the Democrat Party on Friday issued a statement following a meeting of its executive committee the previous day. It confirmed its decision to remain a coalition partner in the government to continue managing the country's affairs and address the ongoing issues Thailand faces, media outlet The Nation reported. 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Pheu Thai will need to do everything it can to 'salvage the government's parliamentary majority in order to prevent a dissolution of parliament', Ken Mathis Lohatepanont from the Department of Political Science at the University of Michigan in the United States told CNA. Lohatepanont outlined two possibilities for the ruling party: Replace Paetongtarn with another candidate to preserve its alliance with the United Thai Nation Party, or retain Paetongtarn and risk United Thai Nation's departure. If United Thai Nation does withdraw, the ruling coalition will lose 36 seats and become a minority government. Analysts told CNA that while a minority government is possible, it would face significant challenges in passing key legislation. Without a majority, Pheu Thai would have to lobby for opposition support on key measures such as the budget and this risks triggering broader street protests, McCargo from NTU said. 'It makes (Pheu Thai) hostage to the preferences and whims of small parties. It will likely be a very dysfunctional minority government that cannot get anything done,' said Thithinan. 'There will be constant squabbling, constant crisis.' Lohatepanont, who is a PhD candidate, agreed. 'Being dependent on disloyal MPs is a fraught business and leaves the government highly vulnerable to future switches in loyalties,' he said. Observers have said it is unlikely for the opposition bloc to form an alternative coalition. 'The People's Party holds the most seats in the opposition bloc but it is hard to see how the People's Party and the Bhumjaithai could cooperate,' said ISEAS fellow Eugene Mark. People's Party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut said on Friday there is no possibility of his party and Bhumjaithai forming a government with the latter's leader, Anutin Charnvirakul, as Prime Minister, reported The Nation. In the 2023 election, Move Forward – the forerunner of the People's Party – won the most seats but was blocked from taking power by an unelected senate, paving the way for second-placed Pheu Thai to cobble together a coalition and form the government. What happens if Paetongtarn resigns? If Paetongtarn resigns – or if her party opts to replace her to keep United Thai Nation or other parties in the coalition – Pheu Thai is likely to nominate a new candidate for prime minister. 'On paper, a PM nominee needs a simple majority of 248 votes out of 495 to secure premiership,' said Mark, who is co-coordinator of the Thailand Studies Programme at Singapore's ISEAS. Observers predict that Chaikasem, a senior figure within Pheu Thai, is the most likely candidate to replace Paetongtarn should she step down. However, his reported ill health has raised doubts on whether his premiership will be enduring. Chaikasem, a former attorney-general, was one of Pheu Thai's three original PM candidates in the 2023 election. In the wake of the Thai Constitutional Court ordering the dismissal of then-PM Srettha Thavisin in August last year, Paetongtarn was nominated for the role ahead of Chaikasem, a move that analysts said showed the party's "strategy to stand by the youth movement". McCargo and Lohatepanont told CNA that other party leaders could also emerge as contenders to lead a new administration. Among them is Pirapan Salirathavibhaga of the United Thai Nation, who is also Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy. Pirapan, however, commands relatively few Members of Parliament, which would limit his authority within the government, said Lohatepanont. 'I would expect it to be a short-term arrangement where the government works to pass the national budget, and then eventually the House of Representatives is dissolved,' he added. If this happens, Thailand would see its third prime minister since the ouster of Srettha last August. Will there be a snap election? Parliament could be dissolved for fresh elections to be held, observers said. 'If the government truly goes significantly below the minimum governing majority, I would expect a dissolution of parliament to pre-empt a vote of no confidence,' said Lohatepanont. But the crisis will likely damage the Pheu Thai party's standing further, making it even more challenging to head into fresh polls, according to analysts. 'I doubt that the Pheu Thai Party is ready for an election. Their core policy pledges remain unfulfilled, the economy is weak, and Paetongtarn's scandal has only added to their unpopularity,' said Lohatepanont. A snap election may not favour some current and former members of the ruling coalition, including Bhumjaithai, and may instead be to the People's Party's advantage, said Olarn Thinbangtieo, a political science lecturer at Burapha University. 'This is more about pressuring the prime minister to resign than dissolving parliament,' Olarn said. Asked about the possibility of a coup amid the political turmoil, observers said the conditions are not there for the military to seize power. 'The two past coups happened after the democratic process reached a dead end due to elections being boycotted by opposition parties,' Lohatepanont said. Montesano from ISEAS said that the military is 'definitely concerned' by political developments, given the border tensions with Cambodia and the leaked phone call. While the military is 'putting a brave face on things', it has been 'offended very gravely by a prime minister who has accused one of its leading officers as being a member of the political opposition', he told CNA Asia First. 'The essence of this game is to stand back and see how things play out, rather than to be seen taking the initiative in toppling a government or manipulating coalition members again,' he added. There have been multiple coups in Thailand over the last eight decades, including two against governments led by the Shinawatra family. The last coup was in 2014 against Paetongtarn's aunt Yingluck. This is not the first time Paetongtarn has faced pressure to resign. In March this year, she survived a no-confidence vote in parliament after the opposition argued she had been unduly influenced by her father Thaksin. It accused her of tax evasion and mishandling many of the country's problems, including the slumping economy and corruption. Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira said last month Thailand's economic growth may slow over the next two years due to steep US tariffs. Industry leaders have expressed growing concern over the political turmoil, warning that it may further weaken the country's economic outlook in the second half of the year.
