India needs entrepreneurship 2.0 with risk-taking, visionary founders

India, in fact, was a major exporter to West Asia, where two large empires - the Safavid and the Ottoman - provided a lucrative marketing area
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Nitin Desai
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The entrepreneurship that India requires must have two key characteristics. First, it must be willing to be innovative in the sense that it takes on new products and processes as part of its business. Second, it must be global in its marketing orientation so that it can compete with foreign suppliers in India and in global markets.
This was the case in the past. A very readable book by Lakshmi Subramanian provides useful information about entrepreneurship in the pre-Independence era. In Mughal times, innovation was not prominent, as it was a pre-Industrial Revolution era. What mattered was finance, where the

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Time of India

11 hours ago

• Time of India

Despite global turmoil, inflation to stay below 4% target: MPC member

New Delhi: A worsening geopolitical situation since the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting earlier this month has heightened the upside risk to India's inflation trajectory, on account of increases in oil and fertiliser prices , said Ram Singh, a member on the panel. However, despite the upside risks, he expects the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation to stay below the 4% target. "This (geopolitical situation) can put pressure on the INR, adding to the risk of imported inflation. To address unexpected developments on the external front, we adjusted our stance to neutral. Moreover, our foreign exchange reserves (about $700 billion) provide a significant cushion," Singh told ET. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Join new Free to Play WWII MMO War Thunder War Thunder Play Now Undo Going by the World Bank forecast and the S&P commodities index, global commodity prices are expected to remain stable, except for gold and oil, he said. "Food inflation is also likely to follow a downward trajectory. All considered, I expect CPI inflation to stay below the target level of 4%," said Singh, who is director of the Delhi School of Economics. Live Events India's retail inflation hit a 75-month low of 2.8% in May, driven down by a steep fall in food prices. Singh said the Reserve Bank of India has a range of monetary, liquidity, regulatory and forex market tools at its disposal to maintain macroeconomic and financial stability in an unlikely scenario of a deteriorating geopolitical situation causing stress on the financial market and putting pressure on the rupee. On June 6, the RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra -headed six-member MPC reduced the lending rate by 50 basis points (bps), taking the total reduction to 100 bps in 2025 so far. It also changed the policy stance to neutral from accommodative. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Singh said he did not believe the monetary policy had moved too quickly over the past six months or so, at a time of increasing global uncertainty. "There was a need for a big cut. Demand for mid-size housing and urban consumption remains subdued. Private investment also remains tepid, despite the massive capex undertaken by the Centre. The capex to net surplus from operations ratio remains below the pre-Covid level. Singh had backed the rate cut, as per the minutes of the MPC released last Friday. He also pointed out that given the headline inflation forecast of 3.7% for 2025-26, at the current policy rate (6%), the real repo rate turns out to be 2.3%, significantly higher than what would qualify as a growth-supportive rate. Due to the Covid-19 effect, the average r* (r-star or neutral real interest rate) estimated for India had increased to 1.65% for the fourth quarter of 2023-24 from 1.2% for the third quarter of 2021-22, he said. "Now that the Covid-specific factors - elevated public debt and pent-up demand - are behind us, the neutral rate has likely headed toward pre-Covid levels. This gives us scope for a 75 bps rate cut in this cycle," Singh reasoned. "Factoring in the global economic and geopolitical uncertainty, a 50-basis-point rate cut in this cycle was reasonable and highly desirable," he said, adding that limited space for rate cuts does not mean that no more rate cuts are possible in this cycle. Singh further said, "Having reduced the repo rate by 100 bps, we must carefully assess the macroeconomic situation for additional cuts before proceeding with further cuts, given the elevated risks emerging in the external sector." On the surge in bond yields after the MPC's decision, he said a part of the elevated bond yields for 10-year and longer-duration treasury bonds partly reflect the strong prospects for future GDP (gross domestic product) growth. "The overall steepening of the yield curve is also a reflection of the bond market's overreaction to the change in the stance," he said, adding that the bond market would prefer a situation where it can expect more rate cuts. An alternative course would have been a staggered rate cut, but given the subdued credit growth rate and private capex, it would have further delayed the materialisation of demand and investment decisions in anticipation of future cuts. "By contrast, a front-loaded 50-bps cut in the policy rate is likely to help achieve the twin objectives of supporting demand and growth by reducing the cost of funds for borrowers," he said, pointing out that since the MPC decision there has been some (about $5 billion) outflows by foreign institutional investors from the bond market, resulting in hardening of yields and steepening of the yield curve. "Our rate cut decision is fully justified, coming on the back of strong fundamentals and a stable outlook on the domestic fronts, including fiscal prudence and a benign inflation forecast," Singh said.

Economic Times

11 hours ago

• Economic Times

Despite global turmoil, inflation to stay below 4% target: MPC member

Live Events (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel New Delhi: A worsening geopolitical situation since the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting earlier this month has heightened the upside risk to India's inflation trajectory, on account of increases in oil and fertiliser prices , said Ram Singh, a member on the despite the upside risks, he expects the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation to stay below the 4% target."This (geopolitical situation) can put pressure on the INR, adding to the risk of imported inflation. To address unexpected developments on the external front, we adjusted our stance to neutral. Moreover, our foreign exchange reserves (about $700 billion) provide a significant cushion," Singh told by the World Bank forecast and the S&P commodities index, global commodity prices are expected to remain stable, except for gold and oil, he said."Food inflation is also likely to follow a downward trajectory. All considered, I expect CPI inflation to stay below the target level of 4%," said Singh, who is director of the Delhi School of retail inflation hit a 75-month low of 2.8% in May, driven down by a steep fall in food said the Reserve Bank of India has a range of monetary, liquidity, regulatory and forex market tools at its disposal to maintain macroeconomic and financial stability in an unlikely scenario of a deteriorating geopolitical situation causing stress on the financial market and putting pressure on the June 6, the RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra -headed six-member MPC reduced the lending rate by 50 basis points (bps), taking the total reduction to 100 bps in 2025 so far. It also changed the policy stance to neutral from accommodative.A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage said he did not believe the monetary policy had moved too quickly over the past six months or so, at a time of increasing global uncertainty. "There was a need for a big cut. Demand for mid-size housing and urban consumption remains subdued. Private investment also remains tepid, despite the massive capex undertaken by the Centre. The capex to net surplus from operations ratio remains below the pre-Covid had backed the rate cut, as per the minutes of the MPC released last also pointed out that given the headline inflation forecast of 3.7% for 2025-26, at the current policy rate (6%), the real repo rate turns out to be 2.3%, significantly higher than what would qualify as a growth-supportive to the Covid-19 effect, the average r* (r-star or neutral real interest rate) estimated for India had increased to 1.65% for the fourth quarter of 2023-24 from 1.2% for the third quarter of 2021-22, he said."Now that the Covid-specific factors - elevated public debt and pent-up demand - are behind us, the neutral rate has likely headed toward pre-Covid levels. This gives us scope for a 75 bps rate cut in this cycle," Singh reasoned."Factoring in the global economic and geopolitical uncertainty, a 50-basis-point rate cut in this cycle was reasonable and highly desirable," he said, adding that limited space for rate cuts does not mean that no more rate cuts are possible in this further said, "Having reduced the repo rate by 100 bps, we must carefully assess the macroeconomic situation for additional cuts before proceeding with further cuts, given the elevated risks emerging in the external sector."On the surge in bond yields after the MPC's decision, he said a part of the elevated bond yields for 10-year and longer-duration treasury bonds partly reflect the strong prospects for future GDP (gross domestic product) growth."The overall steepening of the yield curve is also a reflection of the bond market's overreaction to the change in the stance," he said, adding that the bond market would prefer a situation where it can expect more rate cuts. An alternative course would have been a staggered rate cut, but given the subdued credit growth rate and private capex, it would have further delayed the materialisation of demand and investment decisions in anticipation of future cuts."By contrast, a front-loaded 50-bps cut in the policy rate is likely to help achieve the twin objectives of supporting demand and growth by reducing the cost of funds for borrowers," he said, pointing out that since the MPC decision there has been some (about $5 billion) outflows by foreign institutional investors from the bond market, resulting in hardening of yields and steepening of the yield curve."Our rate cut decision is fully justified, coming on the back of strong fundamentals and a stable outlook on the domestic fronts, including fiscal prudence and a benign inflation forecast," Singh said.

Time of India

a day ago

• Time of India

Bitcoin as a hedge: Evaluating Bitcoin's role in India's economic strategy

Since Bitcoin's first public release, it has developed unprecedentedly to arguably become the world's best-performing risk asset. Based on its capability for hedging against inflation , and the emergence of DeFi (Decentralised Finance), Bitcoin has witnessed increased adoption across levels, including retail, institutional and government participation. With increased activity by state players like the USA, Bhutan, El Salvador, Russia, Brazil, and many others, India is in a unique dilemma regarding Bitcoin: to be or not to be? If we take a close look at India's economic policies over the last decade and compare them with pre-Bitcoin times, a stark difference can be seen. Pre-2009 India's economic strategies were overtly reactionary to global cues, which have been transformed in the last decade as the country positions itself as one of the most proactive nations regarding economic growth. The impact of this has been massive, with India becoming the 4th largest economy in the world. At the same time, India is increasingly becoming receptive to newer economic models and experiments, something that could be highlighted through the proposed Cryptocurrency and Regulation of Official Digital Currency Bill of 2021, and the Supreme Court's recent direction to regulate the sector. Crypto Tracker TOP COIN SETS Crypto Blue Chip - 5 -5.10% Buy Web3 Tracker -10.91% Buy AI Tracker -11.52% Buy DeFi Tracker -12.23% Buy NFT & Metaverse Tracker -12.54% Buy TOP COINS (₹) Bitcoin 8,904,124 ( -0.56% ) Buy BNB 54,750 ( -1.64% ) Buy XRP 180 ( -2.07% ) Buy Solana 11,798 ( -2.86% ) Buy Ethereum 198,264 ( -5.56% ) Buy While many project it as a negative aspect, the intent of regulating an otherwise decentralised sector highlights the government's openness to get involved in it, especially given that India boasts one of the world's fastest Bitcoin-adopting populations. Did you Know? The world of cryptocurrencies is very dynamic. Prices can go up or down in a matter of seconds. Thus, having reliable answers to such questions is crucial for investors. View Details » This also means that in the long term, Bitcoin is increasingly garnering a favourable sentiment from the policymakers who are setting India's economic strategy for the years ahead. But questions remain — what does Bitcoin offer India's economic strategy that traditional models don't? Let's find out. Live Events Bitcoin's a hedge against inflation Global economies are going through uncertain times owing to several internal and external factors. While we will not indulge in making mathematical assumptions, if we take a look at the data of benchmark indices around the world, like the S&P 500 to the Hang Seng, it becomes clear that these indices have not performed as well as their projections. On the other hand, the global commodity market has been largely vulnerable to market dynamics. These factors have led nations to look at alternative finance or DeFi, in terms of Bitcoin, as the new-age asset has provided multibagger returns in the last few years. BTC has not only outperformed global indices, but also commodities like Gold and Silver — a trend that has piqued the interest of economists around the world. For instance, the US retail inflation on March 25 was 2.4%, as per the Consumer Price Index, a significant rise from the previous year. Similar cases of inflation have been seen in European countries like the United Kingdom and the EU. In the Indian context, the retail inflation rate has been on a downward curve for the past three years, owing to the country's economic rise in recent years, coming down to 4.6% in 2024-25 from 6.7% in FY 22-23. If we look at annualised returns over different global indices, Bitcoin has returned over 250%, more than 10 times that of NASDAQ in the second spot. In the Indian context, the Nifty 50 gave a return of approximately 40% since FY 22-23, highlighting how participation and adoption in the Bitcoin space could help India's economic strategy in the long run. Role in India's economic strategy? While many nations around the world have made significant strides in Bitcoin already, such as the USA, Bhutan and El Salvador, much of it has been reactionary. In India, DeFi is emerging as a real possibility for government participation, however, much of it weighs on the possibility of establishing a regulatory framework. India has been a vocal advocate of creating a global framework for regulating Bitcoin and other VDAs, and it is being considered as the lynchpin of the country officially joining the race. However, while officially the Indian government does not endorse Bitcoin, prominent reports have revealed that the country has used Bitcoin for energy trade with one of its European allies. While the efficacy of the report has not been admitted by the Indian government, what it shows is Bitcoin's increasing popularity at the upper echelons of the government. However, the significant tax levied on the capital gains from Bitcoin and other VDAs is largely considered counterproductive in this aspect. We must understand that India's economic strategy to become a developed nation by 2047, or the goal of Viksit Bharat, is a multilayered strategy. While Bitcoin is not included in the ongoing cohort, its rising popularity and governmental agencies like SEBI and RBI having strong opinions on the asset means it may have a role to play in the future, given that regulations or frameworks are established in a universally accepted means. This does not mean that India may create a Bitcoin strategic reserve, or use it as legal tender like El Salvador, but in a larger context that benefits the country's bid to become a developed nation. Furthermore, the already existing high adoption rate will supplement this bid and could position India as one of the innovators when it comes to a robust economic strategy. (The author Roshan Aslam is Cofounder & CEO, GoSats. Views are own)