What Putin's ‘Rasputin-like mystical influence' over Trump means for the world

When Donald Trump cancelled his meeting with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese this week and left the G7 Summit early, it became clear the billionaire businessman's second presidency was facing a key test.
As the Situation Room debated the critical question of the United States' direct involvement in the rapidly escalating Israel-Iran conflict, an unlikely candidate for mediation emerged: Russian President Vladimir Putin. Speaking with Chris Paine on The Morning Edition podcast, our international and political editor Peter Hartcher delves into Putin's 'Rasputin-like mystical influence' over Trump, and what it means for foreign policy.
Click the player or watch the video below to listen to the full episode, or read on for an edited extract of the conversation.
Paine: So the big question then is, what is America, and specifically, Donald Trump's role in all of this? As we record this in the middle of the day, Wednesday Australian time, the US has not been involved in any strikes thus far. What is Trump saying? He's long sworn himself against wars like this. He's also touted himself as 'The Peacemaker'. What kind of test is this for Trump? What will he do?
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Hartcher: It's a huge test for Trump. Until Thursday last week, he was presiding over negotiations with the Iranians to try to get them to cease and desist from their nuclear program, and telling Netanyahu that he did not want an Israeli attack right up until the hour before the attack occurred ... This is a war he didn't want. And as you say, Chris, he sees himself as a peacemaker. He's made no secret that he wants to get a Nobel Peace Prize. He promised to end the war between Ukraine and Russia within 24 hours. Four and a bit months later, that's raging and has escalated. He promised to fix the Gaza war. No dice. And now, while he's trying to come to a nuclear arrangement with Iran, a new war has broken out there as well. So that's three strikes and you're out. So his peacemaker credentials are looking pretty tatty.
Now, what's he going to do with this war under way? He's got conflicting political demands in his own constituency, the MAGA, Republican, national security constituencies in the US. He's got the restrainers and the prioritisers. And that's a big chunk of the MAGA movement, the MAGA policy, military impulse. Their thinking is the US should just simply keep out of the Middle East altogether, 'It used to be important. We used to need the oil. We don't now, let it go, let it rip. Let the Israelis tear the Iranians to pieces, and the Iranians do what they can.'
Hartcher: Then you've got the internationalists and the traditional Republicans who say: 'No, this is a critical area of the world. We must protect Israel. We must protect our oil access, and we must do what we can to limit the power of the Iranian regime, but without causing a major world war.'

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Her responsibilities extended entirely to sourcing an Alexander McQueen gown and remembering to wash her hair or the State dinner. Not this time. If the 2025 trip is anything like the one six years ago, as the Prince and Princess of Wales, William and Kate will be expected to host the Trumps for tea and to step up to help King Charles and Queen Camilla shoulder the hoisting load during the scheduled-to-the-millisecond, multi-day Cirque du Soleil-level formal production. Queen Camilla winking. Picture: X Kate might have a few State visits as a princess under her belt (South Africa, South Korea, Japan and Qatar) but nothing like this year's American one given the involvement of the world's most famous McNugget consumer. William and Kate at a ceremonial welcome for The President and the First Lady of the Republic of Korea in London. Picture: Chris Jackson –Even months out, the Trump visit is already shaping up to be the most charged State event of Kate's 14 years on the royal clock, surpassing that time in 2015 when China's President Xi Jingping turned up for his go in a gold carriage down The Mall and faced protesters. (Courtiers no doubt all let out a collective sigh of relief that Prince Philip was several hours away in Norfolk glueing together an Airfix model of a Spitfire and couldn't be bothered to try out any new material.) For this visit, the demands put on William and Kate for a note perfect performance will be that much greater. Princess Kate is seen walking well behind Donald Trump in footage from 2019. Picture: YouTube The prince has already gotten a taste of this, having what was by all accounts a very warm and chummy meeting with Trump in Paris in December last year. (William does know something about being an apprentice after all.) Trump meets Prince William on December 7, 2024 in Paris, France. Picture: Aaron Chown – Pool/Getty Images The success of that face-to-face speaks to the demands put on working members to put aside all personal thought and feeling and to quiescently do what Whitehall asks of them. After all, William's marquee project is The Earthshot Prize, giving away nearly $100 million to creative and exciting climate crisis solutions; the Trump administration is opening up Millions of acres of Alaskan wilderness to drilling and mining. For Kate and William, this US State visit will be a major taste of what lies ahead for them – having to do the glad-handing bidding of Downing Street. (State visits are organised at the request of the government of the day, not based on who the sovereign fancies having over for a Scotch Finger.) Kings and Queens are required to remain blandly, politically neutral at all times, to be perpetually smiling milquetoast automatons in good quality wool separates. Their personal tastes, preferences and ideological inclinations can and will never enter the equation. Come September, the realpolitik demanded of royalty will be on full display. Even then, no matter how much hot air there will be coming out of governmental and royal functionaires about special relationships, the rest of the UK's 68 million people might not feel the same way. William and Kate will be working their smiling muscles and playing very very nice with the Cousins but on the streets of the capital public feeling could be running high. Mr Trump's trips to the UK in 2018 and 2019 were met with large-scale public resistance. There were mass protests, nearly 1.9 million people signed a petition opposing his visit; newly knighted London mayor Sir Sadiq Khan forcefully denounced the president; and then speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow barred him from addressing parliament. Anti-Trump demonstrators hold placards as they protest outside of Buckingham Palace in central London on June 3, 2019. Picture: Tolga Akmen/AFP Queen Elizabeth II laughed with Donald Trump during a State Banquet in 2019. Picture: Dominic Lipinski/Pool/AFP Things already sound a tad tense. Meeting Mr Trump's 'sky high' expectations of the visit is reportedly proving quite the royal headache. Tim Shipman, the Sunday Times' chief political commentator, reported this week that the Palace and Downing Street 'have struggled to agree the details [of the trip] with the White House'. Unlike say Mr Xi who got to enjoy the pomp of being jostled and jigged in a wooden coach around central London beside the late Queen, 'officials say Trump is a far bigger assassination threat and there is no coach sufficiently armoured to allow him to use it.' There is also the question of where to stash Mr and Mrs Trump. Buckingham Palace is in the midst of a ten-year renovation and King Charles has, and may very well never, live there. Adding another possibly testy element – Charles is the King of Canada, a country that Mr Trump has threatened to annex. A visit earlier this month to Ottawa saw the King very obviously demonstrate his support for the country, and his speech to their parliament was 'a coded rebuke to Trump's expansionist urges,' per the Times. Unlikely to impress the president either is that French President Emmanuel Macron is set to get his own royal State visit months before the American one. 'It is an open secret,' Shipman wrote, 'that the King is happy' about this trumping. Egos, a lack of carriages, dogs, aides, renovations, helicopters, dinners, finger sandwiches, nerves, sensitivities: There is a lot involved in the Trumps' arrival, any – all – of it could go pear-shaped and Kate will be at the heart of things. Lucky girl. There is one perfect moment though that, let us pray, gets recreated somehow. In 2019, Queen Camilla went viral after being caught on camera winking behind Mr Trump's back. Oooh errrr Your Majesty. Give us another one, please. Daniela Elser is a writer, editor and commentator with more than 15 years' experience working with a number of Australia's leading media titles. Originally published as Picture exposes Kate's Trump nightmare