Canada's Carney seeks to mend ties, but Khalistan issue requires India to be cautious

Unlike other Canadian leaders such as Justin Trudeau and Pierre Poilievre, Prime Minister Mark Carney understands the importance of India as a country whose global influence is growing by the day, but Delhi must not lower its guard on the Khalistan issue read more
In this season of geopolitical flare-ups, it seems at least one relationship is back on track. Years after the Justin Trudeau administration played sinister games with India trying to appease its domestic Khalistani vote bank, the India-Canada equation under newly elected Prime Minister Mark Carney is now becoming friendlier with each passing day.
A good example of this was on display during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Canada last week for the G7 summit. Earlier India had downgraded its diplomatic ties with the country and had even recalled its diplomats after a controversy had broken out during the previous administration when then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had accused Indian agents of the assassination of Khalistani terrorist Hardeep Singh Nijjar on Canadian soil. But now on the sidelines of the G7 summit, both PM Modi and Carney have not only agreed to the reinstatement of High Commissioners between India and Canada, but they have also decided to resume the long-stalled trade talks between the two countries.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
While speaking to media on the occasion of the G7 summit, PM Carney was all praises for PM Modi's leadership, calling his meeting with him a 'great honour' in addition to asserting how Modi has become a permanent invitee to the summit since the year 2018 and would also likely make an appearance at the next summit scheduled to be held in France. While the conciliatory notes extended by Carney towards India are a significant break from the past, what is also important to note is that the whole Canadian dispensation seems to be undergoing a shift of position towards India even on the much-controversial Khalistan issue as well.
Around the same time that Carney and Modi held a meeting on the sidelines of the summit, an interesting report was released by the country's top intelligence agency, the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS). While the report has again made an unsubstantiated assertion over alleged Indian foreign interference in Canada, in a big break from the Trudeau era, the report has also conclusively noted that Khalistanis are indeed using Canadian soil to 'promote, fundraise and plan' violent activities primarily targeting India since the mid-1980s. This has to be the first time that a Canadian agency has made such an open and honest admission of Canada serving as a base for the Khalistani terrorists for almost four decades now.
Looking at the changing tunes in Canada, one really wonders if the future of India-Canada ties will be bright now onwards, with the biggest irritant of extending state support to Khalistanis by Canada a thing of the past? Well, the truth is that it will be a constant cost-benefit analysis that will determine Canada's attitude towards India in the long run, no matter how friendly and favourable the Carney government seems at the moment.
One may say that unlike the Trudeau government, which was at the mercy of noted Khalistani Jagdeep Singh's New Democratic Party (NDP), this time the Liberal Party government faces no such compulsions. NDP is now a politically spent force and Jagmeet a practical nobody in the Canadian political scene, allowing Carney to dictate terms more freely. This explains why, for the first time, a Canadian intelligence report has so openly indicted the Khalistanis for targeting India using Canada as a base. The last time an attempt towards this was made, the Trudeau administration had made sure to redact those portions.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
In addition to the reduced political dependence on the K-factor, Carney, unlike Trudeau, is a pragmatic leader who is choosing to see the big picture when it comes to the India-Canada relationship instead of pandering to the Khalistanis. This signalling was impossible to miss on the eve of the G7 summit when Khalistani groups were threatening to disrupt PM Modi's visit with charged-up protests taking place in Calgary, but Carney refused to budge to the threats and went ahead with his plans to host PM Modi.
Carney's logic was simple: his predecessor had thrown an important diplomatic relationship to the wolves due to his political myopia, and G7 was a great opportunity to reset ties with India, a dynamic emerging economy. Maybe this is why Carney's dissociation with Khalistan was early to spot, as not even a single campaign rally of his had allowed the separatists to wield their flag or raise their cause. In comparison, opposition leader Pierre Poilievre had pandered fully to the Sikh separatists.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
Unlike other Canadian leaders such as Trudeau and Poilievre, Carney understands the importance of India as a country whose global influence is growing each passing day. In a press query, he noted India's leadership on the world stage and called his meeting with PM Modi a 'foundational' necessary first step towards much-needed repair of bilateral ties. As per him, India is the fifth largest economy in the world and the most populous country, which is also central to the global economic flow by being at the heart of crucial supply chains.
Carney's own recognition of India's economic significance was also driven by the diplomatic pressure that his administration faced from the other G7 countries. In an interview with a Canadian network, Vina Nadjibulla from the Asia-Pacific Foundation of Canada noted that there was a strong push from other countries to invite India to the G7 summit, leaving Canada with little choice.
Now that Carney has finally embraced a friendlier approach towards India as a sign of his political maturity, Canada stands to benefit a lot from the relationship. India, after all, is Canada's tenth largest trading partner with an emerging market of 1.4 billion people for its agriculture, hi-tech and educational services offerings. There is also a two-million-strong Indian diaspora in Canada, of which the Khalistanis are just a small fringe. At a time when even big players in the West are looking to court India, Trudeau's alienation of India was a strategic suicide. It seems Carney for now has done a great job in mending the bridges. But will the Khalistan issue disappear from the Canadian political landscape and also become irrelevant in the India-Canada bilateral relationship?
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
Well, hardly so because the Western countries, especially their deep states, have carefully nurtured the K-elements as an asset to balance a rising India. Whenever India will not follow their preferred course of diplomatic action, they will not take a moment to deploy the Khalistani separatists. On this matter, even Carney would not be any different from Trudeau. Not to forget that Khalistanis not only remain a strongly funded cause in Canada, but their activities to canvass support domestically are still continuing in the garb of freedom of speech even today. For now, the Canadian leadership seems to have understood the importance of India as a key partner, so we should make the most of it. But India's own efforts to keep the Khalistanis in check in the Western societies, including Canada, must go on without an iota of hesitancy.
The author is a New Delhi-based commentator on geopolitics and foreign policy. She holds a PhD from the Department of International Relations, South Asian University. She tweets @TrulyMonica. The views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost's views.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Learn with AIFact CheckingText to SpeechAI Summary

Related Articles

Business Standard

8 minutes ago

• Business Standard

Iran-Israel conflict: India ramps up oil imports from Russia, US in June

India has ramped up purchases of Russian oil in June, importing more than the combined volumes from Middle Eastern suppliers such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq, amid market volatility triggered by Israel's dramatic attack on Iran. The US military struck three sites in Iran early Sunday, directly joining Israel which first struck Iranian nuclear sites on June 13. Indian refiners are likely to import 2-2.2 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil in June - the highest in the last two years and more than the total volumes bought from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait, preliminary data by global trade analytics firm Kpler showed. India's oil imports from Russia were 1.96 million barrels per day (bpd) in May. Imports from the United States also rose to 439,000 bpd in June, a big jump from 280,000 bpd purchased in the previous month. Full-month projections for imports from the Middle East stand at around 2 million bpd, lower than the previous month's buying, according to Kpler. India, the world's third-largest oil-importing and consuming nation, bought from abroad around 5.1 million barrels of crude oil, which is converted into fuels like petrol and diesel in refineries. India, which has traditionally sourced its oil from the Middle East, began importing a large volume of oil from Russia soon after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This was primarily because Russian oil was available at a significant discount to other international benchmarks due to Western sanctions and some European countries shunning purchases. This led to India's imports of Russian oil seeing a dramatic rise, growing from less than 1 per cent of its total crude oil imports to a staggering 40-44 per cent in a short period. The conflict in the Middle East has so far not impacted oil supplies. "While supplies remain unaffected so far, vessel activity suggests a decline in crude loadings from the Middle East in the coming days," Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling at Kpler, told PTI. "Shipowners are hesitant to send empty tankers (ballasters) into the Gulf, with the number of such vessels dropping from 69 to just 40, and (Middle East and Gulf) MEG-bound signals from the Gulf of Oman halving." This suggests that current MEG supplies are likely to tighten in the near term, potentially triggering future adjustments in India's sourcing strategy, he said. The Strait of Hormuz, which lies between Iran to the north and Oman and the United Arab Emirates to the south, serves as the main route for oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE. Many liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, especially from Qatar, also pass through the strait. As the military conflict between Israel and Iran escalates, Tehran has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil and a major LNG export transit. India imports about 40 per cent of all its oil and about half of its gas through the narrow Strait. According to Kpler, concerns over a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz have intensified following Israel's pre-emptive strikes on Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure. Iranian hardliners have threatened closure, and state media have warned of oil spiking to $400 per barrel. "Yet, Kpler analysis assigns a very low probability to a full blockade, citing strong disincentives for Iran," Ritolia said. This is because China, Iran's largest oil customer (which imports 47 per cent of its seaborne crude from the Middle East Gulf), would be directly impacted. Also, Iran's reliance on Hormuz for oil exports via Kharg Island (handles 96 per cent of its exports) makes self-blockade counterproductive. Additionally, Tehran has made deliberate efforts over the past two years to rebuild ties with key regional actors, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both of which rely heavily on the Strait for exports and have publicly condemned Israel's actions. Sabotaging their flows would risk unraveling those diplomatic gains. A closure would also provoke international military retaliation. Any Iranian naval build-up would be detectable in advance, likely triggering a preemptive US and allied response. At most, isolated sabotage efforts could disrupt flows for 24-48 hours, the estimated time required for US forces to neutralise Iran's conventional naval assets, according to Kpler. Any such move would provoke military retaliation and diplomatic fallout with Oman, undermining Iran's own backchannels with the US. Ritolia said India's import strategy has evolved significantly over the past two years. Russian oil (Urals, ESPO, Sokol) is logistically detached from Hormuz, flowing via the Suez Canal, Cape of Good Hope, or Pacific Ocean. Indian refiners have built refining and payment flexibility, while optimizing runs for a wider crude slate. Even US, West African, and Latin American flows - though costlier - are increasingly viable backup options. "India's June volumes from Russia and the US confirm this resilience-oriented mix," he said. "If conflict deepens or there is any short-term disruption in Hormuz, Russian barrels will rise in share, offering both physical availability and pricing relief. India may pivot harder toward the US, Nigeria, Angola, and Brazil, albeit at higher freight costs. Also, India may tap its strategic reserves (covering 9-10 days of imports) to bridge any shortfall.

India Today

12 minutes ago

• India Today

Matter Aera 5000+ review, first ride: Say hello to India's first geared electric motorcycle

Ahmedabad isn't the first place that pops to mind when one thinks of an electric motorcycle revolution. But that all changed back in 2019, when a few enthusiastic individuals came together to create Matter. For those who may not have heard this name before, Matter is an Indian electric mobility startup headquartered in Ahmedabad, Gujarat. Matter isn't just assembling EVs, it's building them from the ground up. The company designs and manufactures its motors, battery packs, software systems, and vehicle platforms in-house. Unlike many EV brands that rely on white-labeled imports, Matter has focused on indigenous innovation, with an emphasis on performance, technology, and rider engagement. Its first product, the Aera 5000+, is India's first geared electric motorcycle, aiming to provide a more traditional riding experience. To answer whether Matter succeeded in this quest, we were recently invited to their home base, to visit the production facility, hit a go-kart track and ride it in the the point of the gears?The Aera 5000+ is India's first geared electric motorcycle, and not in a gimmicky way. This is a ground-up motorcycle designed by a homegrown startup that's building its own powertrains, software stack, and even batteries in-house. There is a clear emphasis on controlling the entire production system from the ground up, allowing for more factors to be monitored and adjusted as needed. Sure, the facility isn't the most cutting-edge, but it can be one day, which is good enough for me. And from the moment you see the Aera in person, it doesn't scream 'eco-commuter.' It looks like a modern 200cc street-naked which has a muscular tank, sharp panels, LED lighting, and a distinct DRL signature. It's an EV that isn't apologising for being one. And that's refreshing. After we toured the facility, it was time to head to the track, which is nearly 30km away from the production facility. Subscribe to Auto Today MagazineMust Watch

Scroll.in

14 minutes ago

• Scroll.in

India will never restore Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan, asserts Amit Shah

India will never restore the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan, Union Home Minister Amit Shah told The Times of India on Saturday. Shah asserted that India will use water that rightfully belongs to it, and that Pakistan 'will be starved of water that it has been getting unjustifiably'. He said that India will use the water that had been flowing to Pakistan from Rajasthan by constructing a canal. India had placed the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance a day after the April 22 terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir's Pahalgam, which left 26 persons dead. India said that the treaty would be suspended until Pakistan 'credibly and irrevocably' stopped its support for cross-border terrorism. Shah on Saturday told The Times of India: 'International treaties can't be annulled unilaterally but we had the right to put it in abeyance, which we have done. The treaty preamble mentions that it was for peace and progress of the two countries, but that has been violated, there is nothing left to protect.' India and Pakistan signed the Indus Water Treaty in 1960 with the World Bank as an additional signatory. The pact sought to divide the water of the Indus river and its tributaries equitably among the two countries. Under the treaty, water from three eastern rivers, Beas, Ravi and Sutlej, were allocated to India and that from the three western rivers – Indus, Chenab and Jhelum – to Pakistan. The treaty also allowed both countries to use the other's rivers for certain purposes, such as small hydroelectric projects that require little or no water storage. Experts told Scroll that the suspension of the treaty implies that India is no longer accountable to Pakistan for using, regulating or stopping the flow of the water of the Indus, Chenab and Jhelum rivers. In the aftermath of the Pahalgam terror attack, Jal Shakti minister CR Patil had claimed that the Indian government would make sure that 'not a drop of water' goes to Pakistan. Experts, however, refuted claims that India can immediately block the flow of water into Pakistan.