MLB Power Rankings: Cincinnati, Cleveland on the climb; What a difference a year makes

By Grant Brisbee, Chad Jennings and Levi Weaver
Every week,​ we​ ask a selected group of our baseball​ writers​ — local and national — to rank the teams from first to worst. Here are the collective results.
The Padres are on pace to go 118-44. The Rockies are on pace to go 31-131. But anyone can look at the standings and see that one team has a better record than another. Power rankings are for adding a little context to the wins and losses, with professional baseball writers looking to see if a team's record is actually misleading. So, in theory, it's possible the Rockies could rank ahead of the Padres if our panel of voters thought it was more indicative of their true talent levels.
Advertisement
Is that what happened? You will simply have to keep reading, friends.
In this edition of the power rankings, we're looking back at where each of these teams ranked at this time last year and what that might tell us about where they're going.
Record: 16-7
Last Power Ranking: 1
Ranking a year ago: 4
I filled in the 'ranking a year ago' section without checking. They were atop the power rankings a year ago, I'm sure of it. They'll be atop the power rankings next year. So I'm not going to check. Not unless my editor forces me to in the interest of 'due diligence' and not being 'a lazy jerkwad,' which, after checking a few Slack messages, appears to be the case. Fine. But I'm telling you, they were first.
They were … fourth? How silly. Let that be a lesson to the people who want these power rankings to more closely reflect the current standings. If you do that, sometimes you'll suggest the best team in baseball is the fourth-best team in baseball, which is ridiculous. Save everyone the hassle. Just put the Dodgers first until they lose their 75th game of the season. — Grant Brisbee
Record: 16-7
Last Power Ranking: 2
Ranking a year ago: 16
At this time last season, everyone was experiencing some measure of Padres fatigue. They were constantly winning offseasons and losing regular seasons, so it took only a month for people to get tired of the 2024 Padres. They were just going to be confusingly mediocre again, so 16th place it was.
Then they got hot, with an 80-56 record after that. That's a .588 winning percentage and 95-win pace over a full season. This year, they've been even better, and they have the best record in baseball as of this writing. They're not above the Dodgers in this ranking because of that lingering Padres-fatigue, but if they can hold onto that best record for another week or two, maybe it'll be their turn. They've been outstanding for a full calendar year now. — Brisbee
Advertisement
Record: 16-7
Last Power Ranking: 3
Ranking a year ago: T-18
Here's a strong reminder of how much things can change between now and October. At this time last year, the Mets had a winning record — thanks to a six-game winning streak — but we weren't buying it. Catcher Francisco Alvarez had just gone on the IL, and the Mets seemed due for a swoon. And that's exactly what happened! The Mets were well below .500 by the end of May, but a great June and a strong September pushed them into the playoffs, where they advanced all the way to the NLCS. This year, we're having less trouble believing the Mets can make a run as they've moved to the top of the NL East. But check with us again next week after they're finished their current series against the Phillies and have played four against the Nationals. — Chad Jennings
Record: 14-9
Last Power Ranking: 7
Ranking a year ago: 2
The Yankees are weird, man. In the past year, they've gotten Gerrit Cole healthy, then lost him again. They've failed to re-sign Juan Soto but added Max Fried. They've traded for Jazz Chisholm Jr., Devin Williams and Cody Bellinger. They've had turnover at first base, second base, third base, left field, center field, and most of their rotation. They've used Luke Weaver as a closer, made Ben Rice their primary DH, and buried Trent Grisham on their bench only to start actually using him again this season to pretty decent results. After all that change … they're still pretty close to where they were a year ago as our top-ranked team in the American League. They're coming off a good stretch, too. — Jennings
Record: 15-8
Last Power Ranking: 5
Ranking a year ago: 21
Last July, an intrepid and content-starved writer took a look at the provisional 2025 schedule and highlighted the future road trip the Giants just finished. It was an obvious bear trap — Yankees for three, Phillies for four and a cross-country trip to Anaheim for another three without an off day. And that was without knowing the Phillies would schedule their getaway-day game for 4:05 p.m. local time, which seems illegal.
The Giants went 5-5, which doesn't sound very impressive, but last season's team would have finished 0-11. The extra loss would have just appeared on the schedule one day, and nobody would have bothered to correct it. The Giants are one of the biggest movers in this exercise, and their ability to look competent in the face of expected doom is yet another reason why. — Brisbee
Advertisement
Record: 13-10
Last Power Ranking: 4
Ranking a year ago: 5
The Phillies have been in this power rankings tier — easily top 10, often top 5, rarely No. 1 — for a few years now. They've built a familiar core and supplemented with semi-regular tweaks (new starter Jesús Luzardo has been awesome; new reliever Jordan Romano not so much), and the end result has been a kind of overall consistency despite an offense that can feel very boom-or-bust. The question isn't whether the Phillies are among the teams with a chance to win a championship. It's whether this will be the year they do enough at the end to actually make a deep run and maybe win the whole thing. Barring something extreme, we seem to have a fairly clear set of expectations through the end of September. — Jennings
Record: 13-9
Last Power Ranking: 6
Ranking a year ago: 10
Last year at this time, the Diamondbacks were the reigning pennant winners, and they looked like an even stronger team. If you knew that they were going to lead baseball in runs scored by the end of last season, you might have even picked them to win the NL West. As is, their pitching was dreadful enough to keep them out of the postseason entirely.
That felt like something of a fluke, though, which makes it extra impressive that they're up this high again with Zac Gallen and Corbin Burnes scuffling. If the Diamondbacks get both of them back to their normal levels of run prevention, they could win 100 games. That might be good enough for only a fourth-place finish in the wacky NL West, perhaps, but still. They're a better team again, and this time it should stick. — Brisbee
Record: 14-10
Last Power Ranking: 8
Ranking a year ago: 9
What no difference a year makes, eh?
The Cubs' bullpen has been bad. Like, bottom five in the league in a lot of categories bad. But their offense has been incredibly good. Like top five in the league in a lot of categories good. They lead the sport in scoring (145 runs) and run differential (+41)
Advertisement
They did make one small move on Monday to try to shore up the bullpen, acquiring Drew Pomeranz from the Mariners, but here's a very weird and extreme example of the team we're working with. This is from Sahadev Sharma's story about last Friday's game:
'What happened over the next inning and a half was nearly impossible to describe. In less than an hour of baseball, the two teams traded blows, combining for 21 runs on 20 hits, including six home runs. The Cubs got punched in the jaw, blowing a six-run lead, only to counter, forcing Arizona to blow a four-run lead of its own.'
Yeah. They gave up 10 runs in the eighth inning and came back to win the game. Good luck power ranking that. — Levi Weaver
Record: 13-9
Last Power Ranking: 11
Ranking a year ago: 11
Last year's entry: According to Wins Above Average, the Rangers have the 20th-best pitching staff in baseball. According to FIP, the Rangers have the fourth-worst pitching staff in the majors. So, how are they in first place in the AL West as of this writing?
Would you like to venture a guess which rotation leads the AL this year in ERA (2.85), FIP (3.34), fewest hits allowed (86), fewest home runs allowed (11, tied with Seattle), earned runs allowed (37) and opponent's batting average (.201), while leading the entire sport in walks-per-nine (2.24) and WHIP (0.96)?
Look, when even a spider-bitten Patrick Corbin is putting up strong starts, you know something is going really right.
For now, that translates to exactly the same ranking they had last year. But maybe that makes sense — they're in the exact same position in the standings they were last year, too. — Weaver
Record: 14-9
Last Power Ranking: 9
Ranking a year ago: 20
It's not the biggest jump from last year to this year, but jumping 10 spots is still pretty impressive. Like the Royals, the Tigers made a huge year-over-year improvement in 2024 to shock the baseball world and make the postseason.
Advertisement
Unlike the Royals, they seem to be building on it this year.
While we're looking back a year, here's one reason Detroit is thriving: A year ago, first-round picks Spencer Torkelson and Casey Mize were partway through seasons that ultimately made a lot of folks wonder if one or both might not be quite as good as they'd been hyped up to be.
This year: no, no — they're good.
In relatively recent years, the AL Central has felt a little like a 'first team to not suck, even a little bit, wins the division' situation. Last year changed that, and it looks like the Tigers are trying to make it very clear who's in charge moving forward. — Weaver
Record: 13-11
Last Power Ranking: 10
Ranking a year ago: 17
At this time last year, four AL East teams ranked among our top 11. The Red Sox were the lone exception, having fallen well out of favor with our voters. This year, they're back in the mix — even flirting with the top 10 — but they're part of the American League's murky second tier. We have the Yankees as the best team in the AL, followed by a choose-your-own adventure of next-best teams, none of which is really setting itself apart. The Red Sox had a chance to absolutely dominate the White Sox through seven games in the past 10 days and were just kind of meh. — Jennings
Record: 12-10
Last Power Ranking: 13
Ranking a year ago: 13
The Mariners are back, baby. Not only did they win two series on the road last week, but also they've scored eight or more runs in three out of their past four games. Over the past couple of seasons, the Mariners' problem has been painfully obvious: Score more runs, you dullards. If they can manage that, they'll win the division going away.
Last year at this time, they were also on the road and scoring more runs than expected. What's old is new again. This time, though … this time the offensive surge will definitely stick. Unless the Mariners are trapped in 12th- and 13th-ranked purgatory forever. That might be the Occam's Razor explanation, to be honest. Until we know either way, here's one spot closer to the top. Don't spend it all in one place. — Brisbee
Advertisement
Record: 13-9
Last Power Ranking: 19
Ranking a year ago: 8
Last year around this time, it looked like the Guardians (16-6 at the time) were en route to run away with the AL Central — surely the Tigers and Royals weren't going to hang around all season long. The 7-12 start by the Twins looked like an early elimination of their biggest competition for an AL Central title.
That ended up being mostly true, though it was closer than we expected. The Guardians outlasted both Kansas City and Detroit, winning the division by 6 1/2 games and sticking around in the playoffs longer than both before losing the ALCS to the Yankees.
This year, it's more of a dogfight and we all know it. Not only are the Guardians performing a little worse — Emmanuel Clase seems human, for one — but also the Tigers seem legit and the Royals … well, they did make the playoffs last year, even if they don't seem destined for a repeat performance. For more on the Twins and White Sox, you'll need to keep scrolling down. Further. Further. Almost there … — Weaver
Record: 9-13
Last Power Ranking: 12
Ranking a year ago: 1
You don't have to go back a full year to see how far — and how quickly — the Braves have fallen in the eyes of our voters. When this season started, the Braves were No. 2 in our rankings. They were getting healthy again, and we were bullish on a bounce back. Instead, this season is so far even worse than last season. The Braves lost their first seven games, Jurickson Profar got suspended, Reynaldo López had surgery, they've played musical chairs in the bullpen, their outfielders have been awful, and — well — now our power rankings have them middle-of-the-pack, and that's being generous given their record. A weekend sweep of the Twins was at least a step in the right direction. — Jennings
Record: 12-11
Last Power Ranking: 16
Ranking a year ago: T-11
The Blue Jays lately have been one of those teams that always seem capable of going either direction. Some middle-of-the-pack teams get ranked all over the place by our individual voters, but our votes are pretty well bunched together on the Blue Jays. Basically, just rank them somewhere in the middle, and adjust a bit up or down if they get hot or cold. At this time last year, they'd won seven of nine, and so they were up. Within a couple of weeks, they were losing again and back down to No. 18. This year, they have a winning record, but their run differential is uninspiring. For now, continue to assume they're somewhere in the middle of the pack, trending on and off the playoff bubble with each good and bad week. — Jennings
Record: 12-11
Last Power Ranking: 18
Ranking a year ago: 6
It can't be a huge surprise that the Brewers have slipped since last year; they are essentially a racecar shedding parts as they speed around the track. It's truly admirable that they haven't crashed and (Corbin) burned (get it?) a long time ago, but you can't stay in motion forever on one alternator, three tires and an exhausted nutria being fed Monster energy drinks intravenously.
Advertisement
But also … they're still running!? No, literally: they lead the league in stolen bases (34), and on Sunday, they stole six bases in the first inning en route to a nine-steal game. They might have slipped into the bottom half of these power rankings, but that's still a very fun brand of baseball to watch. — Weaver
Record: 11-11
Last Power Ranking: 15
Ranking a year ago: 18
A year ago, the Astros were absolutely cooked. They were 7-17, which made it tough on power rankers who err on the side of a team's true talent level instead of year-to-date performance. Their early record suggested the Astros were almost the worst team in baseball, but their roster suggested they were going to start winning a lot more games. Eventually, they started winning a lot more games because they were actually a good team. Sometimes it's just that simple.
The 2025 Astros have a similar ranking to the one from 364 days ago, even though they have a much better record than they did back then. So consider this a vote of no-confidence from the same writers from last season. There isn't nearly enough they-should-be-better sentiment for the 2025 Astros to make up for what's been a supremely mediocre start so far. — Brisbee
Record: 9-12
Last Power Ranking: 13
Ranking a year ago: 3
At this time last year, the Orioles were 15-7 coming off a 101-win season. Our top-three ranking wasn't so much benefit of the doubt as it was a logical interpretation of the evidence. The Orioles were good and young and flourishing, all signs pointing in the right direction. A year later, we're not so sure. We obviously don't hate this team, but the Orioles haven't been able to sustain much momentum since the middle of last season (they played .500 ball in the second half of last year). The team still has a lot of good young talent — Gunnar Henderson's numbers are going to turn around — but concerns about their pitching seem justified, especially after Baltimore allowed 24 runs on Sunday. Right now, our voters see the Orioles more middle-of-the-pack than anywhere near the top of the sport. — Jennings
Record: 11-12
Last Power Ranking: 22
Ranking a year ago: 14
I can't get over that the Cincinnati Reds lost three consecutive 1-0 games this year, and also won Sunday's game by a score of 24-2. If I look through my Optimism Glasses, I can definitely see a playoff team with a better-than-you-think rotation beginning to coalesce under the steady leadership of Terry Francona.
If I put on my Pessimism Shades, I can see a team that is so wildly inconsistent that its destiny is to play September spoilers by, I don't know, sweeping the Cubs to knock them out of the playoffs, while finishing with a 76-86 record. (I have somehow managed to upset two fan bases with one hypothetical; sound off here.)
Advertisement
We hereby award them 19th place and a complimentary one of these cute little guys: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ — Weaver
Record: 9-13
Last Power Ranking: 17
Ranking a year ago: 7
When we ranked the Rays seventh a year ago, it was despite a .500 record, an offense that hadn't been very productive and a rotation that was missing three key arms. In short, we were giving the Rays some benefit of the doubt. But not so much today. Their run differential is positive, but we've clearly become skeptical after a down year that saw the Rays rebuild at the trade deadline. An early surprise for the Rays is outfielder Kameron Misner, who made the roster because of one injury, got into the regular lineup because of another, and has been one of their most productive hitters. The Rays seem always to have a surprise up their sleeves, but last week they dropped back-to-back series against the Red Sox and Yankees, which isn't going to help in a tough division. — Jennings
Record: 9-14
Last Power Ranking: T-20
Ranking a year ago: 15
It felt weird seeing the Royals this high on the list last year. This year, now that they're a playoff team and all, it feels a little weird to see them this low.
The rotation has been about as good as they could expect, ranking near the top in quite a few statistics. Cole Ragans leads the league in strikeouts and Kris Bubic has an ERA under 2.00. That's wild.
But the offense has been … stinky. They rank in the bottom three in average, on-base percentage, slugging and quite a lot of other categories.
Bobby Witt Jr. is still crushing it, but look at the team leaderboard in OPS (min. 60 PAs):
Witt: .847
Maikel Garcia: .770
Vinnie Pasquantino: .593
Jonathan India: .568
Salvador Perez: .529
Yikes. — Weaver
Record: 11-10
Last Power Ranking: T-20
Ranking a year ago: 26
A jump of four places doesn't sound like much, and maybe it's not, but it's pretty hard to ignore the vibe shift of the Angels right now. Nolan Schanuel is hitting the ball harder. Zach Neto is off the IL. Kyren Paris has cooled off dramatically (two hits, no walks and 12 strikeouts in his past 23 plate appearances), but he's already done enough to start thinking of him as a long-term contributor at second base.
Advertisement
It's not Garvey-Lopes-Russell-Cey yet, but having an entire infield in place for years to come seems like a great step toward the next competitive Angels team. It certainly feels a lot closer than it was a year ago. — Brisbee
Record: 7-15
Last Power Ranking: 24
Ranking a year ago: 22
Last year, the Twins got off to a bad start, then got off to a bad ending, and now they're off to a bad start again.
The in-between was occasionally fine, and even dipped into the realm of 'fun.' There was sausage involved, and Rocco Baldelli acknowledged it with the dutiful exhaustion of a teenage boy's dad when his friends ask about his kid's band. 'Ha ha, yeah … I guess, man. They have two drummers and no singer, but they're having fun and a bunch of kids are coming out to the shows, so what do I know?'
Anyway, after the Twins more or less put an end to the Braves' own very bad start by getting swept, a lot fewer kids are coming out to the shows. Attendance is way down since there are apparently other cool things to do in the Twin Cities this time of year.
On the upside, Luke Keaschall has been pretty good upon making his big-league debut. So that's … something, at least. — Weaver
Record: 9-14
Last Power Ranking: 23
Ranking a year ago: 24
The last time the Cardinals had two consecutive full seasons under .500 was 1958 and 1959. That statement is carefully worded to exclude the strike-shortened season of 1994, but it's still bonkers. Bob Gibson was a rookie on the last Cardinals team to play a second straight full season of losing ball.
However, the last time the Cardinals allowed more runs than they scored in a full season — a Pythagorean record under .500 — was in 2023 and 2024. While they've been a little Pythag-unlucky this year, that's still a sign that the days of reliable contending might be over for good this time. The Earth went around the Sun once, and the Cards are still 24th. There's no guarantee they'll rank higher in another year, either. — Brisbee
Advertisement
Record: 10-12
Last Power Ranking: T-26
Ranking a year ago: 25
The A's have four starting pitchers with an ERA better than the league average, and they have three oft-used relievers with ERAs starting with '0.' It's pretty hard to start with that sort of run prevention and end up with the third-worst adjusted ERA in baseball, but they've done it. If you're wondering 'how?', there are seven pitchers alluded to up there, but there are 13 pitchers on the A's staff. The other six pitchers are doing a lot of work, and it's not the kind of work that makes you whistle while you're doing it.
It's a shame, because the A's are hitting the ball well as a team, too, and they could be leading a sleepy AL West. As is, they need their ineffective players to be more effective, which is roughly where they were last year. — Brisbee
Record: 9-13
Last Power Ranking: T-26
Ranking a year ago: 25
Our year-over-year rankings suggest the Nationals have been pretty stagnant. And I'll speak for myself here in saying that I want to believe in the Nats. More than most other teams in the bottom third of our power rankings, the Nationals have shown signs of future life. They have three solid starters in their mid-20s, James Wood and CJ Abrams look good, and Keibert Ruiz is off to a nice start at the plate. Get Dylan Crews and Luis Garcia going, and the Nationals could have a solid foundation for the long term. But it's just not leading to many wins in the short term. — Jennings
Record: 8-15
Last Power Ranking: 28
Ranking a year ago: 23
Since last year's entry, the Pirates have:
• Called up Paul Skenes, who won the NL Rookie of the Year
• Uh
• I mean
• They signed Tommy Pham
• He's pretty good, right?
• Y'all hear about this Andrew Heaney fella?
It's not that there aren't some exciting young players on the team. Oneil Cruz hits the ball with a frankly shocking largesse of unfettered malice in his heart. Bryan Reynolds is an All-Star and the sort of player who could be on a playoff team. Their starting rotation is fun and exciting and hopeful. But the thing about baseball is that the teams who make the playoffs tend to be the ones who have invested in things like … free agents, for example. — Weaver
Record: 10-12
Last Power Ranking: 25
Ranking a year ago: 28
Advertisement
It didn't take us long to identify the three worst teams in baseball last season. By the end of April, the Marlins, Rockies and White Sox were the last three teams in our rankings, and indeed they finished — in that order — with the three worst records in the league. The Marlins seem to be not as bad this season. Obviously, we're still not sold on them as a playoff team, but they have some decent hitters (and still some awful ones) behind a rotation that now has both Sandy Alcantara and Max Meyer (who'd been recently optioned to Triple A at this time last year). Add in a couple of so-far, so-good relievers and we obviously think the Marlins are better, but maybe not that much better. — Jennings
Record: 5-17
Last Power Ranking: 29
Ranking a year ago: 30
Last year, the White Sox had a historically bad year. This year, they are having a slightly less historically bad year. Going 5-17 should in no way feel like an improvement, but last year, they didn't win their fifth game until they were 4-22. This year, they did it when they were a mere 4-16.
Baby steps, right?
[receives a memo]
Ah. I've been given an update here. It says that the baby has now tripped and fallen directly into a kitty litter box, and is rolling around in the litter. Someone taught him some swear words, and he's saying those over and over. He's laughing and crying at the same time. Aaaaand now he's putting some of the litter in his mouth. Great. Who thought it was a good idea to teach this baby how to walk? — Weaver
Record: 4-17
Last Power Ranking: 30
Ranking a year ago: 29
Hey, the Rockies are making progress! It's the wrong kind of progress, but still, keep it up, fellas. The only reason they won't be in 31st place next week is because of 'rules' and 'mathematics,' but give them just a little more time. A team with this kind of roster has the potential to break all sorts of norms and expectations.
Until then, here's a meme:
— Brisbee
(Top photo of Elly De La Cruz: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Learn with AIFact CheckingText to SpeechAI Summary

Related Articles

USA Today

24 minutes ago

• USA Today

Jamie Arnold goes in top 5 of latest MLB mock draft

FSU pitcher Jamie Arnold is going to be one of the first players taken in the 2025 MLB draft, it is just a matter of how early someone will draft him. Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of think he will go quite early and have the Colorado Rockies selecting him with the No. 4 overall pick in their latest mock draft. The duo thinks Arnold's ceiling and floor combo makes him appealing to the Rockies. "The Rockies can get a really polished college pitcher who maybe doesn't have Seth Hernandez's incredible ceiling but still has a really high ceiling and a really high floor." Arnold had a strong junior season for the Seminoles, headlining their excellent starting rotation. He finished with an 8-2 record and a 2.98 ERA. In 84.2 innings, he recorded 119 strikeouts against 63 hits and 27 walks. He held opponents to a .208 batting average and has already made four All-American teams. If he is taken 4th overall, he would be the highest drafted Seminole since the Philadelphia Phillies took J.D. Drew with the 2nd overall pick in 1987. Arnold would also become the second-highest drafted pitcher in program history, with only Paul Wilson ahead of him. The 2025 MLB draft will take place in Atlanta, Georgia, and last from July 13-14. The Seminoles had two first-round picks last year in James Tibbs III and Cam Smith. Follow us @FSUWire on X and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Florida State news, notes, and opinions.

New York Times

29 minutes ago

• New York Times

Xander Bogaerts has underperformed for the Padres. He's also been quite unlucky

SAN DIEGO — The sun was beginning to set over Dodger Stadium when Xander Bogaerts took his first swing last Wednesday, grounding into a force out to end the top of the first. For the veteran shortstop, it was an odd experience. Only once before in his career, Bogaerts later recalled, had he avoided taking a practice swing before the start of a game. Advertisement 'Yeah, I don't do that,' Bogaerts, 32, said. 'But, I mean, sometimes f— it, maybe.' The drastic measure preceded temporary catharsis. In the third year of an 11-year, $280 million contract with the San Diego Padres, Bogaerts began the day batting .227 with a .615 on-base plus slugging percentage that ranked 10th-worst among qualifying big leaguers. He ended his night at the plate by lacing a 112.2 mph double — one of the hardest hits of his career — to tie the score in the ninth. Then, in the bottom of the inning, Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Will Smith launched a pinch-hit, walk-off home run to hand the Padres their sixth loss in seven games. 'One of the few positive things I do, it don't even last a couple minutes,' Bogaerts lamented afterward. He would resume his usual routine the following day, taking dozens of swings in the lead-up to another game. As the Padres embark on their latest critical summer, they do not have to worry that one of their highest-paid players isn't applying himself. Bogaerts earned a reputation over a decade with the Boston Red Sox, winning two World Series, playing in four All-Star games and spending untold hours poring over video and tinkering inside the batting cage. In San Diego, coaches and teammates say his preparation remains as advertised; arguably no Padres player works harder or longer. 'He cares,' said center fielder Jackson Merrill, a childhood Red Sox fan who grew up watching Bogaerts. 'That's all you can ask for, is he cares. I'm just honored to be on the same team.' Bogaerts' dedication, however, has made his lack of production even more alarming. The five-time Silver Slugger owns an underwhelming .733 OPS over his Padres tenure. This season brought the worst 12-week start of his career, amplifying fears that, less than three years in, San Diego is already hamstrung by one of the sport's worst contracts. Advertisement It also brought a realization. In a recent text from a friend, Bogaerts saw significant disparities between some of his offensive statistics and the corresponding metrics measured by Statcast, Major League Baseball's tracking technology. Together, they painted a picture. 'I never was a guy to look at it until … one of my buddies sent it to me. That's when I went, 'Oh, wow,'' Bogaerts said. 'I wasn't a big believer in it until I saw some of the numbers where the gap was pretty big, and it was like, 'Oh, man, yeah.' At least, it's what I'm feeling. I feel I'm doing much better, but the numbers show much worse.' Indeed, one of the sport's most underperforming hitters has doubled as one of the unluckiest. Through Wednesday, Bogaerts' .227 batting average was well shy of his .263 expected batting average. He was slugging .314, 66 percentage points below his expected mark. There were ready explanations for the gulf between his actual production and his Statcast numbers. Bogaerts was chasing pitches outside the strike zone less often than ever. His average exit velocity, average bat speed, average launch angle and hard-hit rate were the highest they'd been since at least 2022, when he batted .307 in his final season with Boston. 'You look at almost every measurable since the day he's been a Padre … he's in as good a place as he's been in multiple years,' manager Mike Shildt said last week. 'And so now you just chalk it up to, 'Man, baseball can be really, really hard and frustrating.'' 'I'm never big on 'unlucky.' Throughout my whole career, I've been very fortunate — you know, (things) going my way,' Bogaerts said. 'But this is definitely the year where it's been very weird, unlike me, kind of. It doesn't matter where I hit it. It's right at someone.' Added Merrill: 'He lines out so much, it's not even funny. Last year, too, it was like the same thing. He was lining out all the time.' Advertisement The past four games, then, brought more lasting relief. Beginning with Wednesday's late RBI double, Bogaerts set a career high and matched a franchise record by logging a hit in eight consecutive at-bats. Thursday at Dodger Stadium, he hit his fourth home run of the season and finished 4-for-4 in a much-needed victory. Then, over a series against the Kansas City Royals at Petco Park, Bogaerts went 6-for-11 with two walks and another ninth-inning double. This time, he could enjoy it. Moments after Bogaerts' 110.2 mph line drive on Sunday, reserve infielder and good friend Jose Iglesias delivered a walk-off ground ball. The Padres, who appeared to be spiralling only days ago, won the series and moved to within a half-game of the National League's final wild-card spot. 'Being able to help the team, it's nice,' said Bogaerts, now batting .252 with a .678 OPS. 'Getting some results has been very, very rewarding.' The Padres sought to encourage Bogaerts through one of the more mystifying stretches of his career. Shildt has lauded the shortstop for his steady defense and his alert base-running. Manager and hitting coach Victor Rodriguez, a former Red Sox assistant coach, are among those who have spoken with Bogaerts about the strength of his underlying offensive statistics. On Saturday, Iglesias said, he and Bogaerts had a conversation 'about how stable, how consistent (Bogaerts has been), and how he's been playing defense, even regardless of what his results at the plate look like. That's maturity. That's part of baseball.' Iglesias and Bogaerts first met more than a decade ago as fellow infielders in the Red Sox farm system. Iglesias was traded to the Detroit Tigers in 2013, a few weeks before Bogaerts debuted at Fenway Park. There, Bogaerts went on to establish himself as a reliable offensive force, lashing hits off the Green Monster and compiling an .870 home OPS as a Red Sox cornerstone. As a member of the Padres, he has registered a .758 OPS amid the less hospitable dimensions of Petco Park. But the environment alone does not explain his decline; away from downtown San Diego, Bogaerts has tallied a .710 OPS. Advertisement 'I just see this guy barreling balls without any real consistent anything to show for it. I don't think it's the ballpark,' Shildt said. 'I do think … (defensive) positioning is as good as it's ever been. And, man, he's just hitting balls at people hard. The recipe for that, to hit it hard, is usually a result. After that, there's literally no more that can be done.' Speaking last week in the visiting dugout at Dodger Stadium, Shildt shared another observation: 'He genuinely cares about the success of this team, and he's a very introverted guy. I think he carries a lot of heaviness with him when it doesn't go as well as he'd like. All we can do is support him and love on him.' Sunday at Petco Park, the Padres could bask in a confluence of solid process and sufficient results. Merrill, returning from a concussion, batted second for only the second time in his career, ripped a double and was robbed of a go-ahead home run when Royals rookie Jac Caglianone made a spectacular catch at the wall. The score would not have been tied if Iglesias hadn't supplied a two-run, pinch-hit single in the bottom of the seventh. The game also might have turned out differently if, in the top of that inning, Bogaerts hadn't made a spinning play from the outfield grass. By the end of the afternoon, after another timely double, Bogaerts ranked 14th among shortstops with 1.5 FanGraphs wins above replacement. His all-around production put him just behind Chicago Cubs stalwart Dansby Swanson and one spot ahead of Bo Bichette, the Toronto Blue Jays' two-time All-Star. Most of all, though, the Padres are paying Bogaerts to help fuel an offense that has too often sputtered. Eleven hits in his past 16 at-bats have served as a reminder that he could still salvage the front end of an onerous contract. And, regardless of luck, it wasn't that long ago he reeled off nine consecutive multi-hit performances. 'That's probably the most special run that I've had. It was my last year with the Red Sox, too,' Bogaerts said. 'It feels pretty close to that — you know, when you're locked in, seeing all the pitches and taking the balls. It feels pretty similar.' (Denis Poroy-Imagn Images)

Yahoo

an hour ago

• Yahoo

Padres at Giants prediction: Odds, expert picks, starting pitchers, betting trends, and stats for June 2

It's Monday, June 2 and the Padres (33-24) are in San Francisco to take on the Giants (33-26). Stephen Kolek is slated to take the mound for San Diego against Logan Webb for San Francisco. The Padres are 5-2 over the last seven games and coming off a 6-4 comeback win over the Pirates last night, while the Giants are 2-4 in the past six, but are off a 4-2 victory over the Marlins. Advertisement San Francisco is 3-2 at home with Webb on the mound, while San Diego is 3-2 in Kolek's five starts this season. Lets dive into the matchup and find a sweat or two. We've got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch tipoff, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts. Follow Rotoworld Player News for the latest fantasy and betting player news and analysis all season long. Game details & how to watch Padres at Giants Date: Monday, June 2, 2025 Time: 9:45PM EST Site: Oracle Park City: San Francisco, CA Network/Streaming: Never miss a second of the action and stay up-to-date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day MLB schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game with every out. Odds for the Padres at the Giants The latest odds as of Monday: Advertisement Moneyline: Padres (+146), Giants (-175) Spread: Giants -1.5 Total: 7.0 runs Probable starting pitchers for Padres at Giants Pitching matchup for June 2, 2025: Stephen Kolek vs. Logan Webb Padres: Stephen Kolek, (3-1, 4.11 ERA) Last outing: 5.1 Innings Pitched, 6 Earned Runs Allowed, 6 Hits Allowed, 2 Walks, and 3 Strikeouts Giants: Logan Webb, (5-5, 2.82 ERA) Last outing: 6.0 Innings Pitched, 3 Earned Runs Allowed, 7 Hits Allowed, 1 Walk, and 10 Strikeouts Rotoworld still has you covered with all the latest MLB player news for all 30 teams. Check out the feed page right here on NBC Sports for headlines, injuries and transactions where you can filter by league, team, positions and news type! Expert picks & predictions for tonight's game between the Padres and the Giants Rotoworld Best Bet Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700. Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts. Advertisement Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager. Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Monday's game between the Padres and the Giants: Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline. Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the San Diego Padres at +1.5. Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the over on the Game Total of 7.0. Want even more MLB best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert MLB Predictions page from NBC. Top betting trends & insights to know ahead of Padres at Giants The Padres have won 3 straight games at the Giants This season the Giants pitcher Logan Webb has an ERA of 2.83 and a WHIP of 1.19 when opening With Logan Webb opening the Giants are up 1.31 units on the Run Line at Oracle Park in 2025 If you're looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our MLB Top Trends tool on NBC Sports! Advertisement Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff: