NATO leaders to meet amid growing geopolitical instability

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The 32 leaders of NATO's member states will gather in The Hague from Tuesday for a major summit. This will be the alliance's first summit since US President Donald Trump returned to the White House and it comes at a time of growing geopolitical instability. From war in Ukraine to tensions in the Middle East and the increasing assertiveness of China, there is no shortage of serious challenges. If this week's G7 meeting in Canada is any indicator, this NATO Summit will be short and unlikely to produce a common position on most of the major challenges confronting the alliance.
Already, the signs suggest that this summit will be more modest in ambition and structure than previous gatherings. The number of scheduled sessions is lower than usual and a draft of the summit communique circulating through NATO capitals is significantly shorter in both length and scope than past declarations.
However, despite these limitations, the alliance's leaders will be eager to project unity. The summit will likely feature strong public messaging on those areas where consensus exists — especially the issue Trump cares about most: increasing European defense spending. More divisive issues, such as the future of Ukraine, the threat posed by China and the ongoing war between Israel and Iran, will be relegated to closed-door meetings.
Defense spending will dominate the public agenda. Since the 2006 NATO Summit, member states have committed to spending at least 2 percent of their gross domestic product on national defense. For many years, this pledge was largely ignored. By the time Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014, only three member states were meeting the target. That same year, at the NATO Summit in Wales, alliance leaders reaffirmed the 2 percent goal and agreed to reach it by 2024. While meaningful progress has been made — 23 countries now meet or exceed the 2 percent threshold — there is no question that Trump views the current level of spending as insufficient.
The signs suggest that this summit will be more modest in ambition and structure than previous gatherings
Luke Coffey
That is why Trump is now pushing for a new benchmark: a combined 5 percent of GDP, to be phased in over the next several years. Under this proposal, NATO members would spend 3.5 percent of GDP on core defense capabilities, with an additional 1.5 percent allocated to defense-adjacent areas such as cybersecurity, critical port infrastructure, strategic transportation networks and national resilience efforts.
A few countries have already stepped forward. Poland, the Netherlands and Sweden have laid out detailed and credible plans to reach the new targets. Other countries, such as Spain, have shown greater reluctance, but recent weeks have seen a shift in attitude due to pressure from both Washington and key European allies.
Another area where consensus is building is on defense industrial cooperation. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the West's response exposed serious deficiencies in the defense production capabilities of NATO countries. The war has revealed that many allies lack the industrial base to sustain high-intensity conflict, replenish munitions and scale up production quickly. These shortcomings have alarmed policymakers and pushed NATO to take a more active role in coordinating defense production.
While NATO, as an intergovernmental security alliance, cannot dictate national industrial policies, it can play a vital coordinating role. It can identify capability gaps, establish common standards and promote the interoperability of weapons and munitions among member states.
Still, not all issues lend themselves to consensus. Some of the most pressing matters will be discussed privately. First among them is Ukraine. With US congressional funding for Ukraine set to expire by the end of summer, and with the Trump administration showing decreasing interest in leading peace talks, European countries will soon need to shoulder a much larger share of the burden.
The Trump administration is expected to push its European allies to reduce Chinese influence on the continent
Luke Coffey
How they will do this — and whether they are politically willing to do so — remains unclear. It will require significant political will, financial resources and a united approach that has so far been lacking across much of Europe. As long as Trump is in office, NATO is unlikely to take a leading role in organizing or funding long-term assistance to Kyiv.
Another issue looming over the summit is China. The Trump administration is expected to push its European allies to reduce Chinese influence on the continent, particularly in areas such as telecommunications infrastructure, port ownership and advanced technologies like artificial intelligence and quantum computing. However, NATO's mandate as a military alliance limits what it can directly do. It lacks the tools to regulate investment or economic policy. The responsibility will therefore fall to national governments and the EU. Even so, the Trump administration will almost certainly use the summit to press the point behind the scenes.
Finally, the war between Israel and Iran will feature prominently in closed-door discussions. Although NATO has no formal mandate in this conflict, the issue is of vital concern to many members. A prolonged or expanded war — particularly if it spills into Iranian territory — could create massive regional instability, including refugee flows, terrorism and economic disruption.
Moreover, Turkiye, a NATO member, shares a border with Iran, adding to the alliance's concern. Allies will be watching carefully for signals about how this conflict may evolve and what role, if any, NATO should play in contingency planning.
It is in everyone's interest that this summit is perceived as a success. Privately, Trump administration officials have reassured their European counterparts that there will be no surprises. American officials know that Europe remains vital to US interests. Europe is America's largest export market and the biggest source of foreign investment.
NATO is not only a military alliance — it is the foundation of the transatlantic economic and strategic order. And in the end, that reality will likely keep Trump invested in the alliance's success.
• Luke Coffey is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. X: @LukeDCoffey

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