Master of deception: How Trump is fudging the numbers
When looking at the latest US Congressional Budget Office analysis of the Trump administration's proposed budget and tariff policies, the saying 'lies, damned lies, and statistics' comes readily to mind because, at the heart of both sets of policies, is financial legerdemain.
The CBO's verdict on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act now being negotiated by Senate Republicans is that, in its current form, it would add $US2.4 trillion ($3.7 trillion) to US government's $US36.2 trillion of debt over the next decade.
A separate CBO analysis of the Trump tariffs, however, said it could raise $US2.8 trillion over the same period, suggesting that it would more than cover the increased spending.
At the core of the increase in spending is the extension of Trump's 2017 tax cuts, which mainly favoured companies and wealthy households.
Those cuts had a 'sunset' clause – they were scheduled to end in December this year – which was an accounting artifice to keep their cost below $US1.5 trillion rather than multiples of that amount had they been factored into the CBO's usual 10-year projections.
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In the One Big Beautiful Bill, the Republicans are emulating their 2017 strategy, with a range of the Trump campaign pledges on cuts to the taxes on tips, overtime, social security benefits for seniors and the interest on car loans supposed to expire by the end of his term in January 2029.
Between them, their cost amounts to nearly $US300 billion over that period. If they were extended – and there would be significant political pain for the next administration if they weren't extended – their cost over the normal 10-year budget assessments would be closer to $US1 trillion.
The cost of extending the $US3.8 trillion of core tax cuts – the extension of the 2017 tax package – would increase to $US5.3 trillion if they remain in place over the decade.
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Sydney Morning Herald
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