How Ty Emberson's role with Edmonton Oilers has evolved in NHL playoffs
Edmonton Oilers defenceman Ty Emberson has a unique role with the team this spring. A top option on the penalty kill, Emberson's five-on-five ice time is about five minutes less than in the regular season. He's the No. 6 defenceman on the team, played in all games during the recently completed series against the Los Angeles Kings, but isn't part of the regular rotation at five-on-five.
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Why is this happening? Part of the deployment is no doubt Emberson's lack of NHL experience, but there's another reason. Here's a look into the Oilers coaching staff, what is valued and where those missing minutes are landing.
Emberson has been a strong PK option for the Oilers since November. During the regular season, he averaged over two minutes a game short-handed, and his numbers were among the best of Edmonton's defence. His GA-60 (6.4) was superior to the results when he was at rest (9.47, via Natural Stat Trick).
In the playoff series against the Kings, Emberson delivered two minutes per game and once again beat the rest of Edmonton's defencemen in goal suppression. The Kings' series had plenty of chaos, so Emberson's GA-60 (13.74) was inflated drastically compared to the regular season. When he was off the ice, the results (16.17 GA-60) were even more frightening.
The Oilers coaching staff values Emberson on the penalty kill. A quick comparison of the playoff numbers reflects a clear top three PK men, with Emberson part of that group.
PK numbers via Natural Stat Trick
Emberson's spot in the starting lineup is secure based on these numbers. He's one of the top PK men each game, and even in a period where the short-handed crews struggled against the Kings, Emberson's underlying numbers are quality.
Emberson's five-on-five minutes have declined during the postseason. He's being used sparingly compared to the regular season in the game state:
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
Emberson's 51 minutes five-on-five has seen Edmonton score two goals and allow one, while being outshot 24-14 by the Kings. Small samples will produce such conflicting numbers, but the regression suggested by the shot share is significant.
The coaching staff is going with veterans, a tale as old as time.
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Emberson will probably take on more minutes next regular season and be a stronger option in the 2025 postseason.
Where are those minutes previously given to Emberson landing? Enter Brett Kulak. He has emerged as a super utility player.
Coach Kris Knoblauch has identified two interesting wrinkles in his defensive units. First, the exceptional performance of the Jake Walman and John Klingberg pairing has held sway, convincing the coaches that that duo is a key element in team success. Any efforts to split up the pairing seem fleeting, and the duo quickly returns to working together.
Second, Kulak has emerged as an elevated fifth defenceman, gobbling up the Emberson minutes in an effort to outscore opponents. Here are the top seven pairings by ice time during the Kings series, with minutes played and results.
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
Emberson is part of a single pairing. The numbers are solid and those results come in a depth role. The Kulak-Emberson duo is slightly under 50 percent in expected goals, nothing alarming about that number for a third pairing. However, it's noteworthy that this tandem is the only one in the group that is below 50 percent expected goals.
Meanwhile, Kulak can be found on three pairings of 29 minutes or more. His 124 five-on-five minutes ranked him No. 2 (Darnell Nurse) among Edmonton's defencemen in the third round.
A quick note on Nurse and Evan Bouchard. Despite the low scoring rates, the expected goal share suggested that regression should be expected. Some fans are frustrated with the coaching staff's seeming stubbornness about the duo, but the underlying numbers endorse staying the course.
Emberson's minutes during this postseason are not guaranteed, but his future with the organization looks to be safe. He recently signed a two-year extension ($1.3 million annually) and figures to be in the mix for regular work next season.
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His current role is somewhat unusual, but it's a valuable piece of the puzzle for the Oilers coaching staff. Taking advantage of Kulak's tireless skating, and improving the puck movement ability of the defence makes this deployment effective.
Emberson fits in perfectly due to his penalty-killing goal suppression. He has provided enough quality play to stay in the lineup.
Why is Emberson playing less at five-on-five? The Oilers' current success is heavily based on moving the puck into the neutral zone (and enemy territory) quickly. Kulak is taking Emberson's minutes because he's fast, can pass and transport, and (most importantly) play either side of a pairing effectively.
Moving Emberson down the depth chart can be justified if it's working, and Kulak went 5-3 goals (64 percent expected) with various defensive partners during the Los Angeles series.
The stars of the show during that run were Walman-Klingberg, who outscored opponents 3-0 in 55 minutes in the first round this spring.
Knoblauch and his staff are so enamored with that pairing that the club is willing to deal with some uneven play from the Nurse-Bouchard pair. In 58 minutes, the trio went 3-7 against the Kings. The pairing may face even more difficult challenges against the Vegas Golden Knights in the next series.
With Ekholm still unavailable, and the coaching staff likely to run Nurse-Bouchard and Walman-Klingberg as the top two pairings, the role of Kulak becomes even more important.
Troy Stecher may be inserted into the lineup at some point, with the Oilers possibly running seven defencemen in games.
All of this is designed to keep the club in the playoffs until Ekholm returns. At that point, the Oilers will run the pairings envisioned at the trade deadline.
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