logo
Opec sees solid second-half of 2025 for world economy, trims 2026 supply

Opec sees solid second-half of 2025 for world economy, trims 2026 supply

Business Times5 days ago

[LONDON] Opec on Monday (Jun 16) said it expected the global economy to remain resilient in the second half of this year despite concerns about trade conflicts and trimmed its forecast for growth in oil supply from producers outside the wider Opec+ group in 2026.
In a monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries left its forecasts for global oil demand growth unchanged in 2025 and 2026, after reductions in April, saying the economic outlook was robust despite trade concerns.
Opec also said supply from countries outside the Declaration of Cooperation – the formal name for Opec+ – will rise by about 730,000 barrels per day in 2026, down 70,000 bpd from last month's forecast.
Lower supply growth from outside Opec+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies, would make it easier for Opec+ to balance the market. Rapid growth from US shale and from other countries has weighed on prices in recent years. REUTERS

Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Oil prices settle lower as US sanctions ease fears of escalation in Iran
Oil prices settle lower as US sanctions ease fears of escalation in Iran

CNA

timea day ago

  • CNA

Oil prices settle lower as US sanctions ease fears of escalation in Iran

HOUSTON :Oil prices settled down on Friday as the U.S. imposed new Iran-related sanctions, marking a diplomatic approach that fed hopes of a negotiated agreement, a day after President Donald Trump said he might take two weeks to decide U.S. involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict. Brent crude futures settled down $1.84, or 2.33 per cent, to $77.01 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for July - which did not settle on Thursday as it was a U.S. holiday and expires on Friday - was down 21 cents, or 0.28 per cent, at $74.93. The more liquid August contract settled at $73.84. Brent rose 3.6 per cent on the week, while front-month U.S. crude futures increased 2.7 per cent. The Trump administration issued fresh Iran-related sanctions, including on two entities based in Hong Kong, and counter-terrorism-related sanctions, according to a notice posted to the U.S. Treasury Department website. The sanctions target at least 20 entities, five individuals and three vessels, according to Treasury's Office of Foreign Asset Control. "Those sanctions are cutting both ways. They may be part of a broader negotiation approach towards Iran. The fact they are undertaking this is a signal they are trying to resolve this outside of conflict," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital in New York. Oil prices jumped almost 3 per cent on Thursday after Israel bombed nuclear targets in Iran, while Iran - OPEC's third-largest producer - fired missiles and drones at Israel. Neither side showed any sign of backing down in the week-old war. Brent prices retreated after the White House said Trump would decide whether the United States would get involved in the Israel-Iran conflict in the next two weeks. 'Although a major escalation is yet to occur, risks to supply from the region remain high, still hinging upon the potential for U.S. involvement,' said Russell Shor, senior market analyst at Israel's UN ambassador said Israel seeks genuine efforts on Iran's nuclear capabilities from Friday's meeting between European and Iranian ministers, not just another round of talks. "However, while Israel and Iran carry on pounding away at each other, there can always be an unintended action that escalates the conflict and touches upon oil infrastructure," PVM analyst John Evans said. Iran in the past has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for Middle East oil exports. Oil exports so far have not been disrupted and there is no shortage of supply, said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS. "The direction of oil prices from here will depend on whether there are supply disruptions," he said. An escalation of the conflict in such a way that Israel attacks export infrastructure or Iran disrupts shipping through the strait could lead to oil at $100 a barrel being a reality, said Panmure Liberum analyst Ashley Kelty. Elsewhere, the EU has abandoned its proposal to lower the price cap on Russian oil to $45, Bloomberg reported. U.S. energy firms this week cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for an eighth week in a row for the first time since September 2023, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report. The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by one to 554 in the week to June 20, the lowest since November 2021.

Oil prices slip as US sanctions ease fears of escalation in Iran
Oil prices slip as US sanctions ease fears of escalation in Iran

CNA

timea day ago

  • CNA

Oil prices slip as US sanctions ease fears of escalation in Iran

HOUSTON :Oil prices slipped on Friday as the U.S. imposed new Iran-related sanctions marking a diplomatic approach that fed hopes of a negotiated agreement, a day after President Donald Trump said he might take two weeks to decide U.S. involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict. Brent crude futures were down $2.27, or 2.9 per cent, to $76.58 a barrel by 11:48 a.m. EDT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for July - which did not settle on Thursday as it was a U.S. holiday and expires on Friday - was down 21 cents or 0.3 per cent at $74.93. The more liquid August contract was down around 0.1 per cent, or 5 cents, to $73.45. Brent was on track to rise 3.2 per cent on the week, while front-month U.S. crude futures were set to increase by 2.7 per cent. President Donald Trump's administration has issued fresh Iran-related sanctions, including on two entities based in Hong Kong, and counter-terrorism-related sanctions, according to a notice posted to the U.S. Treasury Department website. The sanctions target at least 20 entities, five individuals and three vessels, according to Treasury's Office of Foreign Asset Control. "Those sanctions are cutting both ways, they may be part of a broader negotiation approach towards Iran. The fact they are undertaking this is a signal they are trying to resolve this outside of conflict," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital in New York. Prices jumped almost 3 per cent on Thursday after Israel bombed nuclear targets in Iran, while Iran - OPEC's third-largest producer - fired missiles and drones at Israel. Neither side showed any sign of backing down in the week-old war. Brent prices retreated after the White House said President Donald Trump would decide whether the United States would get involved in the Israel-Iran conflict in the next two weeks. 'Although a major escalation is yet to occur, risks to supply from the region remain high, still hinging upon the potential for U.S. involvement,' said Russell Shor, senior market analyst at Meanwhile, Israel seeks genuine efforts on Iran's nuclear capabilities from Friday's meeting between European and Iranian ministers, not just another round of talks, Israel's UN ambassador said. "However, while Israel and Iran carry on pounding away at each other, there can always be an unintended action that escalates the conflict and touches upon oil infrastructure," PVM analyst John Evans said. Iran has in the past threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for Middle East oil exports. However, oil exports so far have not been disrupted and there is no shortage of supply, said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS. "The direction of oil prices from here will depend on whether there are supply disruptions." An escalation of the conflict in such a way that Israel attacks export infrastructure or Iran disrupts shipping through the strait could lead to $100 per barrel of oil being a reality, said Panmure Liberum analyst Ashley Kelty.

Viewpoint: An EV revolution is happening in the heart of Opec
Viewpoint: An EV revolution is happening in the heart of Opec

Straits Times

timea day ago

  • Straits Times

Viewpoint: An EV revolution is happening in the heart of Opec

Drivers in Dubai are starting to pick electric vehicles over petrol-powered cars. PHOTO: AFP Viewpoint: An EV revolution is happening in the heart of Opec UNITED ARAB EMIRATES – Think of the most important markets for electric vehicles (EVs) and you will have a list of the usual suspects: Norway, China, Germany, the United Kingdom. But Dubai? It seems improbable, but the second-biggest exporter in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) deserves a place alongside those other markets. Fully-electric vehicles comprised 10 per cent of the value of cars imported into the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in 2024 , according to trade data. Throw in hybrids and plug-in hybrids, and more than a quarter of the market is switching to batteries. That is a troubling sign for the UAE and its oil-exporting neighbours in the Persian Gulf. If nations that owe their very existence to the transformative power of crude are switching to lithium-ion, then the prospects for their key export are looking distinctly shaky. The UAE is, to be sure, an outlier. But it is not completely alone. In Qatar, one in eight vehicles imported in 2024 was battery-powered or hybrid, with similar proportions in Iraq and Iran. The share was 10 per cent in Bahrain and 7 per cent in Kuwait. EVs are springing up everywhere across the region. About 35,000 were registered in the UAE as of October 2024, according to government data. Tesla has stores in four of the UAE's emirates as well as Qatar, and in April, it announced a division in Saudi Arabia. It is playing catch-up with China's BYD, already in all of those markets plus the other three Gulf monarchies. Saudi Arabia's relative paucity of imports belies its ambitions as a manufacturer. The kingdom's Public Investment Fund (PIF) has poured more than US$8 billion (S$10.3 billion) into its majority-owned Lucid Group, a US-headquartered EV-maker. Lucid has built an EV plant in King Abdullah Economic City on the shores of the Red Sea that aims to churn out 150,000 cars a year, though sales so far have not come close to such ambitious projections. Nearby, a joint venture between the PIF and Hon Hai Precision Industry, or Foxconn, is building another US$1.3 billion EV plant, while a third joint venture between PIF and Hyundai Motor broke ground in May 2025 with plans to manufacture both EVs and conventional cars. This budding love affair with EVs might not be quite as surprising as it first seems. Two of the biggest barriers towards switching to electric are range anxiety and upfront costs, but neither applies much in the monarchies of the Gulf Cooperation Council. They are some of the most urbanised societies on the planet, so outside of Saudi Arabia, few people are driving great distances. High disposable incomes make it easy to pay for a battery car, especially as cheaper Chinese models flood the market. Lacking domestic vehicle industries to protect, they are less likely to raise tariffs like the US and Europe have done. Low-density suburbs give plenty of opportunities for owners to charge cheaply at home. The heavily subsidised petrol that the world's petrostates give to their citizens is not nearly the deterrent you might expect either. Most of the Gulf countries have made attempts to link their fuel prices to market rates over the past decade, discouraging the extreme wastefulness of domestic consumption and freeing up more crude for export. While petrol is still absurdly cheap by global standards, electricity now receives far more generous subsidies as governments attempt to stimulate industrial activities that can carry their economies through the looming downturn in oil demand. That translates into rock-bottom charging costs for owners. 'Electricity is so cheap here that you won't even notice the difference on your bill,' one Dubai-based owner of an Xpeng car wrote in a social media post in May . An owner of a BYD Qin estimated savings of 36,000 dirhams (S$12,600) over five years due to paying 'basically nothing' for electricity. It might be tempting to think of the burgeoning Gulf EV market as an idiosyncratic case. That would be a mistake. The popularity of battery propulsion in a region built on the thirst of internal combustion engines is a warning that a fundamentally better technology is now displacing petrol for good. With oil prices gyrating after the Israeli attack on Iran on June 12, who wants the cost of filling up his or her petrol tank to become collateral damage in the Middle East's wars? The world's refiners are already gearing up for an imminent future where chemicals consume more petroleum than petrol-powered vehicles. In decades to come, oil monarchies will not pay their bills by providing the fuel for your car, but feedstock for the plastics in its dashboard and seat foam. Road fuel still consumes more than half of the world's oil. Judging by the electrification of crude's heartlands, decline is now imminent. BLOOMBERG David Fickling is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering climate change and energy. Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store