How a US strike on Iran could unfold, step by step

Shortly after 10pm in the middle of the Indian Ocean, four B-2 Spirit stealth bombers take off under the cover of darkness, heading to Iran.
Each of the bombers is capable of carrying two Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs) — 6m-long, 13.6-tonne bombs that can smash through layers of rock and destroy underground bunkers.
They have never been fired in anger. The sheer weight of the bombs means the journey from Diego Garcia, a joint UK-US base, could take longer than planned. Nevertheless, the pilots aim to arrive by 3.30am at the target: Fordow, Iran's most heavily fortified nuclear site.
The time is chosen because it is when the enemy is at its weakest. 'Between 2am and 4am is the best time to attack … whether that's with a machinegun or dropping a bomb on their head,' explains a former fast jet pilot.
'Human beings,' he adds, 'don't work well in the small hours.'
President Trump has said he will decide within two weeks whether to strike Iran. This is how the US could do it.
Decoys and back-up
Before the aerial cavalry arrive the US is likely to deploy other aircraft, possibly F-35s, that can hit multiple targets at the same time and thereby draw resources away from the real target.
Then in would go the B-2s …
… the only aircraft certified to carry the MOP, also referred to as the GBU-57, which is capable of penetrating hundreds of feet of mountain rock.
The Israelis would probably also deploy a cyberattack to sabotage the command and control elements of the Iranian military. Decoys, in the form of flares or chaff, could be used to divert air defence systems away from the jets in what a British military source described as 'a series of co-ordinated complex events to max out the enemy'.
Israel's destruction of Iranian missile defence systems has allowed it to dominate the skies, meaning B-2s and other aircraft would probably be met with little resistance.
'To have that ability to be flying over Tehran with a couple of jets, and a couple of drones, and only having two surface-to-air missiles fired at you in the last couple of days, is astonishing,' the military source said.
Only two of the B-2s may be needed, each dropping two bombs, to successfully destroy Fordow; the other two would be there for back-up.
The bunker buster
The MOP is the most powerful non-nuclear bomb in the US arsenal, a precision-guided 'bunker buster'. It is designed to destroy targets buried so deep no other conventional weapon could reach them.
Dropped from a B-2 stealth bomber flying at high altitude, it is thought to accelerate to a speed faster than sound, using sophisticated fins to home in on a preset target. Its pointed nose is designed to pierce hardened layers of rock, concrete and steel.
Though the bomb's precise capabilities are classified, the initial impact is estimated to deliver as much as 900 megajoules of kinetic energy, roughly equivalent to a fully laden Boeing 747 slamming into a barrier at 170mph — the difference being that with the bomb, this energy is concentrated on a tiny area.
GETTY IMAGES
Sheer kinetic force will take it through up to 60m of reinforced concrete or hard rock. Only then does its explosive charge, thought to weigh about 2.5 tonnes, detonate.
The blast is intended to collapse or cripple the target. Fordow is buried up to 100m beneath a mountain, shielded by concrete and steel. That suggests a strike would require at least two perfectly aligned impacts — possibly many more.
Fred Fleitz, a former chief of staff at the National Security Council and deputy assistant to President Trump in 2018, told the BBC he believed the US administration had in mind using three to four of the bunker buster bombs.
There would be no need for troops on the ground to assess the damage, he said, because the mountain would collapse. He said: 'The mountain shaking is going to do enormous damage to the centrifuge machines that are very sensitive and very carefully balanced — there will be nothing left of this mountain.'
The fallout risk
The geopolitical fallout may be intense, but scientists see little risk of widespread radioactive contamination from a strike on the Fordow uranium enrichment plant.
If the site is using natural uranium that has not come from a nuclear reactor, the main radioactive materials present will be different forms of uranium (U-238, U-235 and U-234), along with two short-lived by-products: thorium-234 and protactinium-234.
All are at the lower end of the scale when it comes to radioactive danger, according to Mark Foreman, a nuclear chemist at the Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden.
'Natural, depleted and enriched uranium only have a very small ability to induce cancer in humans and animals,' he said. 'I estimate that a person would be required to swallow about 30 or 40 grammes of uranium to give themselves a radiation dose similar to the yearly limit for a British or European radiation worker.'
However, there will be other, more serious chemical threats. Fordow is thought to be working with uranium in the form of a gas called uranium hexafluoride. If it comes into contact with water or moist air, it forms solid particles of other uranium compounds and also hydrofluoric acid.
'Hydrofluoric acid is exceptionally harmful,' Foreman said. It will pass through skin and soft tissue. Inside the body it will bind aggressively to calcium and magnesium ions. These elements are essential for heart and muscle function, meaning that exposure can lead to cardiac arrest. In concentrated form it causes chemical burns that destroy flesh and bones.'
Uranium hexafluoride is a heavy molecule unlikely to travel far, however, especially if the plant is buried with millions of tonnes of rock. That suggests the dangers would be localised.
Ready for retaliation?
If Iran responded, the US would be prepared. In less than a week the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz and its strike group, with nine air squadrons and an escort force of destroyers, will arrive in the region, joining the USS Carl Vinson strike carrier group.
'If America was to do that [use the B-2s] and Iran then lashes out, that is where you need a blanket — that makes sure US and partner interests in the region are covered off by an enormous amount of firepower in the region,' a British military source said.
The scale of America's naval presence is vast.
Its firepower could be augmented by Britain's 14 Typhoon jets at RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus, which the US may use as a base for its refuelling aircraft.
America's bases and other military installations across the Middle East, where some 40,000 American service personnel are stationed, are likely targets for retaliation.
Perhaps the most significant is in Qatar, home to the forward headquarters of US Central Command, which is responsible for American military operations in the Middle East, central Asia and parts of south Asia. Also vital to US interests is the base in Bahrain, home of the US navy's fifth fleet.
There are, meanwhile, 100 British troops in Iraq, along with Americans, who are at risk of being targeted by Iranian-backed proxies on the ground. This is the potential backlash the British are most worried about.
There has also been an increase in American involvement in Syria since the collapse of the Tehran-friendly Assad regime in December. Some 1,000 US troops are in the country, largely to operate against the remnants of Isis.
In addition, Tehran's military planners may look at targets in Jordan, which has in the past contributed to shooting down Iranian missiles aimed at Israel.

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