Explained: 10 takeaways from US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, for India and the world
The United States' military forces bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities on Sunday morning (June 22) using some of its most advanced weaponry, marking its entry into the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran. It used stealth B-2 bombers to drop 'bunker-busting' bombs that can pierce through the ground before exploding, at the Fordow Uranium Enrichment Plant that is located deep in a mountain.
This development has a significant impact on the world, the Middle East, and India in multiple ways. Here are some key takeaways:
The US has officially joined the military strikes against Iran. So far, it has only provided support to Israel in its response against Iran that began on June 13, as well as helped to prevent the counterattacks by the Iranian military. This is the first full-fledged demonstration of the 'iron-clad' support for Israel, which claims that Iran is developing nuclear weapons and posing an 'existential threat' to Israel.
US President Donald Trump has long promised not to involve the country in what he called 'endless wars', from the days of the election campaign for his first term in office (2017-21). At the 2019 State of the Union address, he said, 'As a candidate for president, I loudly pledged a new approach. Great nations do not fight endless wars.'
That was part of his campaign in the second term as well. However, with his decision to bomb the nuclear facilities in Iran, the US has now entered a dangerous zone where a response from Iran is expected, and may lead to a full-scale war. So, instead of ending the ongoing wars, it has now willingly walked into one, resulting in some opposition within his support base.
Israel is the biggest beneficiary of the US entering the scene, since it lacked the capability to take out the nuclear enrichment facility in Fordow, which was dug deep into the ground underneath a mountain — estimates suggest about 300 feet deep, where the enriched material was stored. It had always maintained that Iran's nuclear programme was its target and had wanted to degrade it substantially. The US strike on Fordow is aimed at achieving that.
Israel has also targeted Iran's missile production capability, and now claims that it has destroyed about one-third of Iran's missile launching capabilities. The fact that the B-2 bombers came in and went out of Iranian airspace unchallenged is proof of that degraded capacity. Israel had been demonstrating its complete air superiority and dominance to the US in the last week or so, since it launched its military campaign, calling it 'Operation Rising Lion'. That gave additional confidence to the US to go in without expecting a counter-attack from Iran.
Iran stands humiliated since the Israeli strikes began, and the strike on Fordow is another major blow to its standing. While the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has said it had not seen any increase in 'off-site radiation levels' following Sunday's attacks so far, more than 600 Iranians have been killed in a little over a week of Israeli attacks.
The damage is not just domestic – over the last year and a half, Israel has degraded the capacity of the Palestinian militant group Hamas, and the Lebanon-based group Hezbollah, striking its senior leadership and greatly weakening the two big players in the region. These groups are part of what is called the 'Axis of Resistance', backed by Iran. That cleared the pathway — figuratively and literally, given the 1,500 km distance between Israel and Iran – to target Iran with complete impunity.
Faced with the attack, Iran has criticised the US for violating international law and going after its territorial sovereignty and integrity. The premise for the US attacks – that Iran was close to building a nuclear bomb – is akin to how the US attacked Iraq in 2003 for falsely claiming it possessed Weapons of Mass Destruction, some analysts say.
This is an important element, serving as a reminder of the fact that Washington's track record in the region is dodgy, to say the least. Its intervention clearly poses an uncomfortable question that needs to be thought through in the coming days and weeks.
The attack makes the Iranian regime look weak and unfit to fight back. While Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is 86 and ailing, and some of the top officials in the Iranian military leadership were killed in the run-up to the US attack, it has shown that Tehran is at its weakest, politically and militarily.
This has also given some meat to the speculation of a regime change in Tehran, which Israel and the US have clearly hinted at as a possibility. The current Islamic Republic was established following the Islamic Revolution of 1979, and has endured despite Western economic sanctions, but is now witnessing significant challenges. The coming days would greatly test Khamenei's ability to hold on to power, along with that of the top military leadership.
Iran is a known leader in the scientific and technological sphere, as its scientists and engineers have defied sanctions and tactical Israeli attacks to carry on with a robust nuclear programme in the last two-and-a-half decades. All eyes will be on its people and the scientific community's will and defiance. It will be seen how they navigate the current crisis, whether they can actually push through building nuclear weapons, and whether the regime chooses to do so.
The Iranian response will define the next few days and weeks, and if the uncertainty increases with the ballistic missile attacks and rocket attacks by the Iranians in the Persian Gulf and their allies, the Houthis in the Red Sea region, it will raise the cost of shipping and will add to economic costs. Already, oil prices have risen in recent days. The Strait of Hormuz is an important chokepoint in this regard.
Iran possibly targeting of US troops and bases in the region is another element that could expand and broaden the conflict. This will be a very difficult scenario for the regional players, including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman and Qatar, among others.
India will be watching the developments closely, as it has stakes in the peace and stability in the region. It has about 8 to 9 million Indians living and working in the Middle East, and their safety and welfare are of utmost concern for the Indian government. Many Indian students, as well as those from Nepal and Sri Lanka, have been evacuated from Iran in recent days.
Almost 60 per cent of India's energy needs come from the region. Any instability threatens India's energy security, and that would have an inflationary impact. India, therefore, will want the tensions to be dialled down as any escalation will be detrimental to its national interests.
Shubhajit Roy, Diplomatic Editor at The Indian Express, has been a journalist for more than 25 years now. Roy joined The Indian Express in October 2003 and has been reporting on foreign affairs for more than 17 years now. Based in Delhi, he has also led the National government and political bureau at The Indian Express in Delhi — a team of reporters who cover the national government and politics for the newspaper. He has got the Ramnath Goenka Journalism award for Excellence in Journalism '2016. He got this award for his coverage of the Holey Bakery attack in Dhaka and its aftermath. He also got the IIMCAA Award for the Journalist of the Year, 2022, (Jury's special mention) for his coverage of the fall of Kabul in August 2021 — he was one of the few Indian journalists in Kabul and the only mainstream newspaper to have covered the Taliban's capture of power in mid-August, 2021. ... Read More
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