Despite geopolitical conflict, prolonged oil supply disruption is unlikely, gold to rally: UBS Report
ANI
23 Jun 2025, 13:42 GMT+10
New Delhi [India], June 23 (ANI): There won't be a prolonged disruption to oil supplies, as there is no likelihood of escalation in the US-Iran conflict, noted a research report by UBS. A latest research note by UBS reveals that market participants will not witness prolonged disruption to oil supplies as they don't see escalation in the conflict.'We believe that near-term downside in stocks could represent an opportunity for investors who are underallocated to equities to build positions,' UBS said in a note.The report, however, raises cautions that Iran's retaliatory attack on US bases, US allies, and energy infrastructure remains a clear risk, but the amount of damage remains unclear.UBS believes that 'Iranian military capabilities have already been damaged by the air campaign so far, and Iran's military and navy will likely not be able to resist the combined power of the Israeli and US forces for a prolonged period.'Additionally, UBS don't see Russia becoming involved in the conflict. 'Russia and Iran signed a 'Comprehensive Strategic Partnership' earlier this year, and Russia condemned the Israeli attack on Iran. But while Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to help mediate in the conflict, he also explicitly pointed out that military aid was not covered under the strategic partnership. In addition, Russia's military capabilities are stretched by the war in Ukraine, and appearing as an antagonist to Israel and the US may also risk triggering the US to reconsider tougher sanctions or increased support to Ukraine.'On the precious metal side, the investment banking firm outlines that gold prices are expected to rally, and the metal remains an important portfolio hedge against rising geopolitical risks. UBS target gold prices of USD 3,500/oz, in a risk-off scenario, we believe that prices could rise as high as USD 3,800/oz. furthermore, a weaker US dollar and lower real rates could lend some support to the yellow metals' prices. 'We think the fundamental trend of global investors diversifying long-held US dollar holdings in light of likely slower growth, lower rates, loose fiscal policy, and political uncertainty will continue, and we expect the trend of US dollar weakness to continue over the medium term,' UBS added. (ANI)
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
India Gazette
29 minutes ago
- India Gazette
India's national interest non-negotiable in US trade talks, say government sources
New Delhi [India], June 23 (ANI): With about two weeks remaining before the critical July 9 deadline, India and the United States face mounting challenges in finalising their Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) as the 90-day tariff pause period draws to a close. Government sources emphasised that India's national interests will remain paramount in ongoing negotiations, even as both nations work intensively to reach an interim deal before the deadline expires. The negotiations have hit significant roadblocks, with the US maintaining its demands for substantially reduced duties on American agricultural and dairy products, along with market access for genetically modified (GMO) crops. India, however, has firmly rejected these proposals, citing concerns over food security, environmental protection, and the welfare of its domestic farming sector. 'India is unwilling to compromise on GMO crops or provide broad-based access for US agricultural and dairy products,' a senior government source said, speaking on the condition of anonymity. 'Our position remains clear that any agreement must serve India's strategic and economic interests first.' The American side has been particularly insistent on securing lower tariffs for its agricultural exports, viewing India's vast consumer market as crucial for its farming sector. However, Indian negotiators have expressed concerns that unrestricted access could undermine local farmers and food security frameworks. Despite these fundamental disagreements, both sides remain committed to achieving a breakthrough before the July 9 cutoff. The current tariff pause, implemented 90 days ago, has provided breathing room for negotiations while preventing an escalation of trade tensions. If no agreement is reached by the deadline, tariffs will automatically revert to the levels that existed on April 2, potentially reigniting trade friction between the two nations. However, government sources suggest that even in such a scenario, India would maintain a relative advantage compared to other competing manufacturing economies. The potential return to higher tariffs underscores the delicate balance both nations must strike between protecting domestic interests and fostering bilateral economic cooperation. For India, the negotiations represent a critical test of its ability to engage with major trading partners while safeguarding key sectors of its economy. Trade experts suggest that failure to reach an agreement could have broader implications for Indo-US relations, particularly as both countries seek to strengthen economic ties amid shifting global trade dynamics. The coming days will prove crucial as negotiators from both sides work round-the-clock to bridge their differences and avoid a return to the pre-negotiation tariff regime. Government sources remain cautiously optimistic about finding a middle ground that respects India's red lines while addressing legitimate US trade concerns. As the deadline approaches, all eyes will be on whether diplomatic pragmatism can overcome the current impasse in what has become one of the most closely watched trade negotiations of the year. (ANI)
India Gazette
29 minutes ago
- India Gazette
Deadline extended by 3 months for exercising option to join Unified Pension Scheme
New Delhi [India], June 23 (ANI): The Ministry of Finance has decided to extend the cut-off date for exercising the option for Unified Pension Scheme (UPS) by three months -- upto September 30, 2025, for eligible existing employees, past retirees, and the legally wedded spouses of deceased past retirees. This move followed representations that were received from various stakeholders, requesting an extension of the cut-off date. The Ministry of Finance notified the Unified Pension Scheme (UPS) for eligible Central Government employees on January 24, 2025. To operationalise this framework, the Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority (PFRDA) notified the PFRDA (Operationalisation of the Unified Pension Scheme under NPS) Regulations, 2025 on March 19, 2025. As per the regulations, eligible existing employees, past retirees, and the legally wedded spouses of deceased past retirees were given a period of three months, up to June 30, 2025, to exercise their option under the scheme. Under the UPS, there will be a provision of a fixed and assured pension, unlike the NPS which does not promise a fixed pension amount. For those employees who have completed 25 years or more of service, UPS provides for a pension amount of 50 per cent of their basic pay earned during the last 12 months preceding retirement. Employees with a minimum of 10 years of service will be eligible for pension but it will be adjusted proportionally with the number of years of service, with a minimum amount of Rs 10,000 a month. The retirement benefits also include an assured family pension, equal to 60 per cent of the employee's basic pay. This pension will be given in the event of an employee dying prematurely. Inflation linked indexation benefit will also be applied on assured pension, assured family pension, and assured minimum pension. UPS also provides for gratuity or a lump-sum amount on superannuation. The gratuity amount will be calculated as per the old formulae, as one tenth of the monthly emolument, pay plus dearness allowance as on retirement date and calculated on the basis of every six months of service. The UPS also guarantees 6 per cent of the pension to be immediately transferred to the employee's family as family pension, similar to the benefits offered by OPS. In April 2023, a committee led by then finance secretary T V Somanathan, had recommended for the Unified Pension scheme, which was later approved by the Union cabinet in August 2024. (ANI)
India Gazette
29 minutes ago
- India Gazette
L&T lists India's first ESG bonds worth 500 crore on NSE
Mumbai (Maharashtra) [India], June 23 (ANI): Infra and technology company Larsen & Toubro (L&T) has listed India's first ESG bonds on the National Stock Exchange (NSE), setting a precedent for a greener and more sustainable financial future in India. In a statement, the company said it has successfully raised Rs 500 crore through Non-Convertible Debentures (NCD) at a coupon rate of 6.35 per cent under the Securities and Exchange Board of India's (SEBI) newly introduced ESG (Environment, Social and Governance) and sustainability-linked bond framework. The NCDs, having a three-year maturity period, will mature on June 19, 2028, and the interest would be paid on an annual basis. 'Issued in partnership with HSBC, who served as the sole lead arranger, this landmark transaction adheres strictly to SEBI's regulatory guidelines introduced on June 5, 2025, aimed at enhancing transparency and accountability among bond issuers,' the company said. The framework mandates key disclosures, including sustainability objectives, external evaluations such as Second-Party Opinions (SPOs), and continuous postissuance reporting, with clear Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) to measure ESG impact. Commenting on the listing, R Shankar Raman, President, Whole-time Director and CFO, L&T said, 'We are proud to lead India's transition to sustainable finance through this pioneering ESG bond listing. This initiative underlines our dedication to long-term sustainable development and positions us at the forefront of responsible corporate governance and environmental stewardship.' 'This deal reinforces our commitment to driving L&T's ESG goals and supporting the larger energy transition objective,' R Shankar Raman added. The company added this successful issuance is a significant milestone in India's financial markets, illustrating growing investor appetite for ESG-compliant financial instruments and setting a benchmark for future sustainable financing ventures. (ANI)
