Which Houston Astros players' stock is up, down as summer approaches?
WEST SACRAMENTO, Calif. — An inevitable outcome to some and impossible to explain for others, the Houston Astros have reprised their role as an American League force. The winter witnessed them trade their best player before allowing a franchise cornerstone to sign elsewhere.
Seven starting pitchers reside on the injured list alongside the team's most feared slugger. Somehow, with a skeleton roster and nonexistent depth, the Astros are atop a division they've long dominated.
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Jeremy Peña is playing like an MVP candidate, even if Aaron Judge's hulking presence in the American League gives him little chance to win the award. Josh Hader is again baseball's best closer. Both Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown are bona fide Cy Young Award candidates. Jose Altuve is a left fielder — and having fun doing it.
Remarkable run prevention has paired with an opportune offense to create a 4 1/2-game cushion atop the American League West. Here is a stock report after 72 games.
Team officials entered the offseason with an objective to improve a defense that deteriorated last season. Trading one Gold Glove winner and failing to re-sign another ran counter to the claim.
Yet, without Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman, the Astros have transformed into the best defensive team in the American League.
According to Baseball Savant, only the St. Louis Cardinals entered Tuesday worth more outs above average than the 19 Houston has accumulated. The Astros finished last season worth minus-3 outs above average.
Adding three-time Gold Glove first baseman Christian Walker afforded an obvious boost following Bregman's departure. So did hiring the coach who Walker credits for developing his defensive game.
First-year third-base coach Tony Perezchica has drawn rave reviews within Houston's clubhouse for his work with a retooled Astros infield that is now among baseball's best. After finishing last season worth minus-19 outs above average, Houston's infield is worth plus-13. Only the Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates are better in that metric.
Walker living up to his pedigree has helped. So has Perezchica's work with third baseman Isaac Paredes, who has stopped much of his pre-pitch movement and become far more efficient in his first step toward ground balls.
The team never expected Paredes to match Bregman's defensive wizardry, but what he's done has exceeded most internal expectations. And Peña, a Gold Glover in 2022, has improved every defensive metric from last season — something manager Joe Espada has credited to Perezchica.
Still, no offseason act is more meaningful than Altuve accepting a move off of second base, where he finished last season worth minus-9 outs above average.
Now, Altuve is playing a position where Houston knew he'd be less involved. He has received just 53 chances during his 35 starts in left field. For reference, Athletics left fielder Tyler Soderstrom has received 78 in 34 starts.
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Altuve is still worth a major-league low minus-8 defensive runs saved in left field, but the lack of action he receives mitigates the misery. That both center fielder Jake Meyers and right fielder Cam Smith rank among the best defenders at their respective positions also helps to hide Altuve's inexperience.
Including a player with 32 games of professional experience on the Opening Day roster indicated Houston had patience. At times, Smith's search for consistency will test it. His rookie season is a case study in restraint — refusing to overreact with every peak and valley he authors.
Smith hit two home runs against the San Diego Padres on April 18. He took 147 at-bats before hitting two more on Tuesday as part of a four-hit game at Sutter Health Park. In between the outbursts, Smith slugged .338 and struck out 46 times across a 43-game sample.
Smith's true talent is probably somewhere in the middle. Potential oozes from him, but putting it all together still eludes him. The Astros anticipated this and constructed a roster that doesn't require Smith to be a superhuman.
The trade deadline could deliver a more difficult discussion. Houston will be in the market for a left-handed bat. If the one it acquires is an outfielder, Smith's offensive approach will have to improve if he wants to retain everyday playing time instead of a platoon.
Smith is struggling to make consistent contact and, when he does make it, is hitting far too many ground balls. He entered Tuesday seeing 49 percent fastballs and a 55.3 percent groundball rate against them.
Smith's 30 percent whiff rate is five percentage points above major-league average. Against sliders, he is whiffing at a 39.3 percent rate. Smith is making contact on just 45.9 percent of the pitches he swings at outside the strike zone — almost 12 percentage points below the major-league average.
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Smith remains a revelation in right field, where he is worth nine defensive runs saved, according to Sports Info Solutions. His routes aren't always perfect, but Smith's superb athleticism allows him to compensate.
Some of Smith's throws have sailed the cutoff man or gone to the wrong base. He is living and learning — part of being patient.
What began as a player pressing in the first season of a sizable contract has blossomed into one of Houston's biggest problems. Walker's ineffectiveness has encompassed the entire season, eliminating the excuses of 'it's early' or 'getting adjusted to a new clubhouse.'
Walker awoke on Tuesday worth minus-0.6 wins above replacement, according to Baseball-Reference. Only 35 qualified players were worth less. Just two of them — Salvador Perez and Bryan Reynolds — have taken more plate appearances than Walker. He reached base thrice on Tuesday against the A's, inflating his OPS to .653.
Walker has hit third, fourth or fifth in every game he's played. Upon Yordan Alvarez's return from the injured list, a case can be made Walker should hit sixth, a spot few envisioned for a first baseman Houston paid $60 million this winter.
Fortune hasn't favored Walker, who entered Tuesday with a .438 expected slugging percentage and an actual mark of .359. His .269 batting average on balls in play is 26 percentage points below major-league average, too, but blaming bad luck for Walker's brutal season is misguided.
Walker is being beaten with elevated four-seam fastballs — a pitch he pummeled last season — and striking out at a 28.4 percent clip. He's never finished a full season with anything higher than a 25.7 percent strikeout rate. Walker is hitting .211 and slugging just .408 against four-seam fastballs.
(Top photo of Christian Walker: Troy Taormina / Imagn Images)
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